Most candidates would see their poll numbers drop after taking risky moves like skipping a nationally televised debate or, say, being arrested and having their mugshot released coast to coast.
This is not the world that former President Donald Trump lives in. In a move that is probably surprising to some but unsurprising to anyone paying attention, the more persecution Trump receives from his political foes, the more his supporters dig in and his base broadens.
The anti-Trump argument usually centers around electability.
Sure, they concede, his policies were golden and the country thrived under this leadership. However, they contend, he has too much baggage to win over independent voters and will drive more Democrats to the polls than Republicans in 2024. Plus, they scream, look at these indictments!!!
However, that all seems irrelevant for most GOP primary voters as a majority of them see Trump as more electable after skipping the debate and having his mugshot released, according to Morning Consult:
According to our Aug. 24-27 survey, 62% of potential primary voters said they think Trump has the best chance of beating the Democratic incumbent. That is up 9 percentage points over the previous week, and matches a high in Morning Consult’s tracking of the question since April.
Their belief tracks with the Republican front-runner’s continued standing against Biden in a head-to-head test among the overall electorate. Despite his escalating legal troubles, which he’s embraced with his campaign’s monetization of his mug shot, our daily tracking shows that Trump continues to poll neck-and-neck against Biden while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails the incumbent.
On that note, just 13% of voters who indicated they plan to vote in a Republican primary or caucus in their state said DeSantis is most electable against Biden — matching a tracking low — while the share who said the same of entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy fell from 10% to 6% following his high-profile appearance in the debate.
This is all post-debate, mind you. These are voters who were asked about all the candidates, having seen them tussle on Fox News last Wednesday, and they still came out thinking Trump is the one to beat Joe Biden next year.
To put it in perspective, here are the numbers for each candidate before and after the debate, courtesy of The Hill and Morning Consult:
The only other candidate besides Trump to appear more electable after the debate was Mike Pence. As I wrote days ago, robotic delivery aside, Pence sounded like a legitimate candidate even though his campaign is going nowhere and the MAGA base would rather vote for Covid than Pence.
Regardless of Nikki Haley coming out this week as the establishment flavor of the month, her campaign isn’t going anywhere, either. Despite the Daily Beast propping her up as the most electable against Joe Biden and claiming she’s a “threat” to Trump, it’s a flash in the pan after shouting at Vivek Ramaswamy over Ukraine policy and taking a moderate approach to abortion. In other words, Haley came out strong on the issues the establishment cares about, not the average voter.
The long and short of the debate last week, coupled with Trump’s Tucker Carlson interview, is that the race hasn’t changed much. Lots of establishment inside-the-beltway figures liked what they saw on stage in Milwaukee, but they’re not voting in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.
