Still, that leaves 6 states somehow thinking Biden’s doing an OK job.
If you guessed the usual suspects like California, New York, Maryland, Vermont, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, you’d be correct. Those are the only states where the president is barely clinging to a positive net approval rating. Barely.
Everywhere else, including crucial states with midterm senate races like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Ohio, Biden’s in the basement.
As Morning Consult describes the state of affairs, Biden’s numbers are much lower than Trump’s at a similar point in his presidency:
With less than four months until November’s midterm elections, the political environment has arguably worsened for Democrats as President Joe Biden’s dismal approval ratings abound across the country, including in states that will be key to his party’s hopes of holding both chambers on Capitol Hill, which face long odds.
Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey data gathered during the second quarter of 2022 shows voters in 44 states are more likely to disapprove than approve of Biden’s job performance, up from 40 states in the first quarter. It leaves the Democratic standard-bearer in a markedly worse position ahead of the midterms than then-President Donald Trump and his party faced in 2018, with attrition among Biden’s base a key factor, along with a comparatively more hostile review from independents and voters on the other side of the aisle.
Looking at this map, it’s a wonder if Democrats have anywhere they might win a quasi-competitive race in November:
Biden has some pockets but only in reliably blue states. As for the rest, inflation and the economy are drowning any hope that Democrats will have come November to retain the House and perhaps even the Senate.
Biden’s even underwater in his home state of Delaware as well as Oregon and Washington:
Over the span of three months, Biden’s net approval rating dropped underwater in Illinois and — for the first time of his presidency — in Washington, Rhode Island and Delaware, the latter of which he has long called home.
In the First State, 45% approve and 52% disapprove of his job performance, marking a decline of 38 percentage points in his net approval rating over his tenure, which is only eclipsed by his downturn in dark red North Dakota.
Among states that proved vital to Biden’s 2020 Electoral College victory and host key Senate and House races in November — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — roughly 2 in 5 voters approve of his job performance, down by double digits after nearly uniform declines that started in the third quarter of 2021.
The race for governor in Oregon is perhaps one of the most interesting right now. With Biden’s approval waning and rampant crime among the state’s largest cities, run exclusively by Democrats, it’s possible Oregon could see a Republican governor for the first time in decades.
In some ways, Biden’s plight mirrors that of Obama’s where Democrats won presidential elections and then got destroyed at the state and local levels. Handfuls of state legislatures swapped hands during Obama’s term giving the GOP the upper hand for years to come.
Much of this is a result of progressive policies coming from DC that are vastly unpopular with the rest of “flyover country” where Democrats were slaughtered from 2010 to 2014.
Oregon, however, is nowhere near flyover country, it’s part of the progressive bastion of left-coast states that seem to enjoy living in their own man-made misery.
The result in these contests, like Oregon, could come down to enthusiasm which all resides on the Republican side for the time being:
This enthusiasm gap plays out at the state level, including in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan — all home to pivotal contests this fall where Democrats will need to find a way to energize their coalition to win important House, Senate and gubernatorial contests.
Democrats are energized by the Roe v. Wade ruling but demoralized by inflation and the economy. The net result could be a wash for the midterms.
Republicans have their own challenges, too. Results from Tuesday’s primary show Dan Cox, the Trump-endorsed candidate in the race for governor there stands little chance of prevailing in November to succeed term-limited Larry Hogan. Cox might do well in a redder state but will have a difficult if not impossible time winning statewide in Maryland the way Hogan did as a rare two-term Republican governor in the deep blue state.
There are opportunities everywhere for Republicans to win seats once thought unwinnable and Democrats will be playing defense in areas they never expected. November will undoubtedly provide some surprises and upsets for both sides.