As we head into the Fall and Americans get back from vacation and start paying attention to the news again, there are several key issues that will drive the world of politics well into 2022. These issues, while sometimes seeming to fade from the headlines, will be the drivers next year as Democrats look to retain their majority and Republicans try to ride convention into a midterm victory against the party controlling the White House.
The debacle in Afghanistan, which is still deteriorating, is on the list, of course, but there are several other topics that will motivate voters on both sides to get off the couch and into the voting booth. Or, at the very least, get off the couch and fill out their mail-in ballot.
1. Afghanistan
There is no overstating how much this issue could well drag into next year, and beyond. With bad news continuing to pour out of the county, and the Biden administration continuing to handle the situation poorly, there doesn’t seem to be a reasonable end to the botched withdrawal anywhere in sight.
Just days ago it was confirmed that several plans were being held in Afghanistan by the Taliban in some sort of hostage situation. The State Department tried to deny the circumstances, though reports from outsider journalists and reporters indicate the planes, filled with citizens and Afghan allies to the U.S., were being held and denied the ability to take flight.
The Biden administration, and subsequently the Democratic Party, has many vulnerabilities on this topic, and the situation is far from resolved.
2. Abortion
Isn’t abortion always an election issue? It seems as though the past few decades that has certainly been the case. Just recently, however, with the U.S. Supreme Court refusing to shoot down a Texas anti-abortion law on procedural grounds, the issue once again has become a front-burner issue. The SCOTUS decision on Whole Woman’s Health v. Jackson at least temporarily allows the Texas law, which gives citizens the ability to sue abortion providers civilly for their actions, to move forward.
The argument over this particular case is far from over, and the Court has yet to weigh in on the actual merits of the law. As it stands now, the decision on this issue could come next summer which would immediately place abortion front and center in the 2022 midterms regardless of the outcome. There are also other abortion cases percolating on the SCOTUS docket, any one of which could become the catalyst for the 2022 midterms.
The decision in that case will probably come down in June or even July of 2022, just as the midterm-election campaigns are gearing up. In the off-chance that the Court reverses Roe v. Wade next year, the prospects of Senate control could change drastically as judicial appointments would be a major issue for both sides.
3. Donald Trump
Will he or won’t he run for President? Democrats must be hoping he tosses his hat in the ring soon as a way to remind moderate suburban voters why they voted for Joe Biden in 2020. On the other hand, Republicans also need energy and they need the energy of MAGA voters to drive up numbers in areas where the lackluster “Republican Party” brand doesn’t excite anyone.
Trump is a double-edged sword for Republicans in that he can drive GOP enthusiasm, but he can also drive enthusiasm among Democrats eager to vote against him out of spite. There will undoubtedly be some GOP midterm candidates who embrace Trump, and some that shy away.
4. Crime
Violent crime in American cities continues to reach new highs, and few politicians seem to have any good answers. At the local level, lax enforcement and “defund the police” efforts have created situations where criminals are empowered and citizens become targets. Big-city Democrat mayors continue to push bad policies and there seems to be a pendulum shift happening among constituents being directly affected by soaring crime.
In a sharp move compared to recent years, public opinion polling that asks voters which issues are important to them is now finding crime at the top or near the top of the list. Candidates will need to address it, and voters seem to be done with efforts to undermine public safety. Everyone wants accountability from law enforcement, but few voters want to “defund” police departments when that leads directly to empowered criminals and unsafe streets.
5. Covid
The list wouldn’t be complete without mentioning covid-19 and the continued impact on all layers of society. The Biden administration is set to release a new pandemic plan in coming days aimed at slowing the spread and pushing more Americans to get vaccinated.
From education to the economy, this issue will remain a driving force heading into 2022. Many states and localities are at a crossroads deciding if it is time to enact more lockdowns and further restrictions on liberty.
This list is not entirely exhaustive, and there are always other matters that pop up, including local issues which can sometimes affect Congressional races more than national issues.
