As the ever-present showman, Donald Trump knows how to lead an audience and tease upcoming events and announcements better than just about every other politician. In this case, it’s the question of whether Trump will decide to run for president in 2024, or leave the field open to other GOP candidates.
In recent days, there have been rumors and suggestions that Trump is starting to formulate a ground game in the early caucus state of Iowa, and some around him believe a 2024 announcement appears imminent.
Back on September 2, a Democratic Party operative working undercover reporting on the happenings within the GOP shared this tweet and dropped a bombshell on the 2024 Republican field:
Lauren Windsor via Twitter: “BREAKING: Jim Jordan told me tonight in Iowa that Trump will announce he’s running “any day now.” A big GOP operative in the state later announced to the crowd that Trump will travel here imminently.”
BREAKING: Jim Jordan told me tonight in Iowa that Trump will announce he’s running “any day now.” A big GOP operative in the state later announced to the crowd that Trump will travel here imminently. pic.twitter.com/T50ocfqnP5
— Lauren Windsor (@lawindsor) September 3, 2021
Does Rep. Jim Jordan know something we don’t? He may know something since he is an influential congressman and one of Donald Trump’s closest allies during Trump’s presidency. When asked afterward about his statement, Jordan said “I think he’s gonna run. I want him to run.”
We already knew that Trump was planning an Iowa rally sometime in the coming months, though a definite date has not been set.
Announcing a presidential run two years ahead of the typical timeframe would be quite out of the ordinary, but that is the kind of headline that Trump thrives on.
Why would Trump announce early? There are several reasons, some exclusive to him.
- Trump has been kicked off several social media platforms including Facebook and Twitter. It is assumed, rightly to wrongly, that the platforms may be inclined or forced to allow Trump to have equal access if he is an officially declared candidate for public office. For public officials, and candidates, the social media networks have a different set of rules since information sent by public officeholders is considered important for public information, so there is less inclination for content to be removed.
- It may clear or freeze the field and Trump will be the biggest megaphone. Right now, the Biden-Harris administration is fighting with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis since it’s presumed that DeSantis will be a big player in the 2024 Republican primary if Trump is not part of the mix. Some candidates might decide not to run at all in 2024 if they have to compete with Trump.
- The move could also help with delegitimizing any criminal investigations into Trump or the Trump organization. If Trump becomes a candidate, then these investigations become “political witchhunts” that make it easier to evade and easier to build public sentiment against. Furthermore, prosecutors are usually under deeper scrutiny if there is an appearance that their actions may affect an election.
- Trump’s 2024 candidacy would immediately put Democrats on the offensive in jumpstarting a long 2024 presidential campaign. If Trump is on television every day and back on social media, the Biden administration will be more likely to respond to his criticism and which may help drive the narrative that President Biden is likely a lame duck president.
- Finally, Donald Trump seems to enjoy running for president more than he enjoyed being president. Holding rallies, lobbing accusations, and making his opponents squirm became his hobby in 2016. This is the part of being a politician that Trump revels in. Trump is in his element when he’s on the rally stage talking directly to his supporters in an unfiltered and often entertaining manner.
There are also plenty of reasons why Trump would avoid officially announcing his candidacy. Candidates usually wait much longer and wouldn’t announce a 2024 presidential run until late 2023 at the earliest. Many candidates are still seeking re-election to their current office and don’t want to be hemmed in by federal campaign fundraising laws which would apply if and when a candidate launches another campaign.
For Trump, many of the conventional reasons why he wouldn’t announce this early don’t apply. If 2016 and 2020 are guides to what might happen this year or next, the theme is to expect the unexpected, or perhaps simply expect the unconventional. There is no better or worse than a 50/50 chance that Trump announces a 2024 presidential run sometime this year, perhaps even in the next few months.
UPDATE
Trump has announced dates for his upcoming rallies in Georgia and Iowa:
Perry, Georgia – Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021
Des Moines, Iowa – Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021
“Trump’s Save America PAC announced Tuesday night that the 45th president will hold a rally in Perry, Ga., approximately 100 miles south of Atlanta, on Sept. 25. A few minutes later, the organization announced that Trump would speak in Des Moines, Iowa on Oct. 9.”
