Are the headwinds facing Democrats so bad this year that even in deep blue New York they stand a chance of losing a governor’s seat?
That scenario seems…. more plausible by the day. After we chronicled a poll from the Trafalgar Group a couple of weeks back showing Republican challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin down just two points from incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, the race seemed like one to keep an eye on. Then, days ago, a Quinnipiac poll was released showing the race separated by a mere four points, another margin of error number.
Now, a new poll from co/efficient, a fairly small pollster but one that has made some accurate calls in recent years actually pegs Zeldin ahead by less than a point:
Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin has edged past Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul by decimal points and the race for governor is now a dead heat, a stunning new poll released Friday reveals.
The independent co/efficient survey of 1,056 likely voters shows Zeldin with 45.6% support and Hochul at 45.3% with the rest undecided.
The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 3.31 percentage points.
Significantly, it’s the first poll showing Zeldin — who has run a campaign focusing on law and order amid a crime surge — running ahead or even with the Democrat governor.
Is this number too good to be true? That’s always a possibility but given some of the other recent numbers, it seems like less of an outlier. For some context, co/efficient was also one of the few pollsters that correctly predicted the Virginia Governor’s race last year for Republican Glenn Youngkin.
Robert Cahaly, the founder of the Trafalgar Group, was asked recently why he was the only pollster showing New York as such a tight race. His response? The other outfits are simply afraid to release their polls showing the race as tight as it is.
With the co/efficient and Quinnipiac numbers out now, Cahaly is looking vindicated in that answer.
Back to the co/efficient numbers for a moment. In order for Zeldin to have a chance at an upset, analysts say he needs to win at least 30% of the vote in New York City. If he can’t do that, no amount of votes throughout the rest of the state will offset Hochul’s heavy city support.
According to the latest numbers, he’s doing it:
If Zeldin truly is taking 36% of the vote in New York City he’s already on his way to a possible victory in November. Nothing’s assured, of course, since it all depends on turnout and how independents land in the end, but there’s good news there as well.
Independents are heavily leaning toward Zeldin, another point he’ll need to topple the New York Democratic monopoly:
Leading independents by more than 10 points is another important milestone indicating that maybe–maybe–Zeldin has cobbled together the necessary coalition to beat an unpopular Democrat in a state that went for Joe Biden by 23 points.
As Politico notes, the Hochul team is basically grasping at anything it can find to establish a foothold in the race and stop hemorrhaging support. Painting Zeldin, a mild-mannered somewhat moderate Congressman from Long Island as a rabid “MAGA Republican” terrorist hasn’t been working. Zeldin is running on crime and the economy as his top issues which are the issues that voters say are most important.
Hochul is running on abortion and hating Donald Trump but recently discovered this week that she cares about crime as well:
Until now, Hochul has focused largely on abortion rights and on Zeldin’s support of Trump, which included voting against certifying the 2020 election and recent revelations that he messaged former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows on ways to discredit the results. But Zeldin, like other Republicans, has insisted general election voters are more worried about crime and affordability.
Hochul spent the entire year ignoring crime and downplaying the economy, the standard Democratic Party playbook. Zeldin, on the other hand, has run a solidly smart campaign laser-focused on the issues voters say are most important.
It’s anyone’s guess what happens in November but if Zeldin pulls off the upset, the red tidal wave that crashes in other parts of the country will produce some surprising results as well.
