Despite ongoing efforts to mobilize “abortion voters,” Democrats have been unable to match the enthusiasm gap against Republicans.
That data point, among a slew of others, comes from a newly released NBC News poll looking at issues surrounding the midterm election. The NBC headline is about voter “anger” on both sides, but the underlying fundamentals all trend toward the GOP.
Among some of the more “eye-popping” findings, voter interest among both parties is at a record level for recent NBC polls asking similar questions at the same time frame:
The poll also finds 70% of all registered voters expressing high interest in the upcoming election — either a “9” or “10? on a 10-point scale — which is the highest percentage ever in the survey for a midterm election at this same point in time.
“It’s an eye-popper” when you have a higher number now on this question than in 2018, which set a turnout record for a midterm election, said McInturff, the GOP pollster.
By party, however, 78% of Republicans have high interest in the midterms, compared with 69% of Democrats.
That 9-point GOP enthusiasm edge is up from September (when it was R+3) and August (when it was R+2).
Democrats are engaged, yes, but not to the same level as their GOP counterparts. Republicans are enthused to a higher level sensing there is blood in the water in various races across the country which may have previously been thought of as untouchable. The New York Governor’s race is a prime example.
With the Biden administration having spent the better part of a year downplaying inflation, ignoring the economy, and orchestrating a disastrous foreign policy for which the world is still paying dearly, the time to turn the narrative around is long gone. As Democrats scramble to speak to the crucial issues fearing an impending rout, the GOP is finally taking a firm hold and honing a message that is resonating in the final stretch.
Another glaring data point that favors Republicans is a question about whether the upcoming election is important. You would think with the Hobbs decision, that overturned Roe vs. Wade, Democrats would see this as a more important election than previous cycles. According to the data, they don’t:
Additionally, 57% of all voters say this November’s congressional elections are more important to them than past midterm elections — higher than the poll showed for 2018 (when it was 52%) or 2010 (44%).
Thirty-seven percent say it’s equally important to past midterms, and 6% say it’s less important.
Yet once again, Republicans express more importance about the upcoming midterms — with 68% of them saying the election is more important to them, versus 53% of Democrats who say that.
As some analysts have speculated, Democrats peaked too soon back in August when no one was paying attention. That point is pertinent since that’s probably why the tide appeared to shift for a few weeks. After Labor Day, reality sets back in and more Americans start paying attention. The “more important” gap is a 15-point advantage for the GOP. Why don’t Democrats views this election as all that important? It could be that they already have the House and Senate majority and it’s been a total bust.
If you’re an “abortion voter” and you watched as your party was unable to actually pass some kind of nationwide abortion rights law over the past six months, why would you think retaining the majority would change that? The same dynamics apply and it was Democrats standing in the way of such a law ever passing the Senate, not just Republicans.
In short, Democrats have shot their own enthusiasm in the foot. They failed to deliver on much of anything aside from legislation called the “Inflation Reduction Act” that neither addressed nor reduced inflation. They passed an infrastructure bill but people don’t get hyper-excited about building a bridge or repairing a road, that’s simply basic good governance.
Biden’s job approval is sitting at 45% in this poll, the same number former President Obama was at when Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010:
In the Oct. 2010 NBC News/WSJ poll, Barack Obama’s approval rating was 45% (when Democrats lost 63 House seats in that midterm election). And in early November, Donald Trump’s approval was 46% (when the GOP lost 40 House seats).
But his approval is substantially lower among voters from swing states (41%), suburban women (40%) and independents (37%).
Once again, the numbers simply aren’t there for Biden to declare that things are turning around or that his party might end up being rewarded somehow for…. what, exactly? That’s not clear.
Election Day is on Tuesday, Nov. 8.
