Is this poll too good to be true for New Yorkers stuck under a decade of bad Democratic governors?
It’s an outlier, to be sure, among several other polls giving incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul a lead of anywhere from 15 to 17 points over Rep. Lee Zeldin, her Republican challenger.
How did Trafalgar develop a statistically tied race separated by less than two percentage points? They have a unique polling style which has proven to be more accurate in some circumstances. In 2016, Trafalgar was the only pollster to correctly pick up on the Trump victory in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. They did so by expanding their questions and asking a poll respondent who their neighbor would vote for. By using techniques that let a voter off the hook, they found “hidden” Trump voters that turned out big on Election Day.
What kind of techniques and line of questions they’re using in New York is unclear, but this would be a seismic shift if it’s anything close to an accurate snapshot of the race:
Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican rival Rep. Lee Zeldin of Suffolk County by just under two points — 44.5% to 42.6% — according to a new poll released Thursday.
Libertarian write-in candidate Larry Sharp trails with 3.3% support, with an additional 9.7% undecided in the poll of 1,087 likely voters, which shows the race as far tighter than other recent surveys showing Hochul ahead by double digits.
“On Nov. 8, we are going to win this race for governor,” Zeldin said of the new results from the Trafalgar Group poll.
The poll comes as the incumbent Democrat — seeking election to the seat for the first time — faces sharp criticism over rising crime in New York as well as alleged pay-to-play schemes with campaign donors and of her use of government aircraft to get around.
Hochul is not particularly strong and she’s been playing a campaign of defense for many months now. Avoiding the press and taking few questions, Hochul is in the “ride it out stage” where she can basically stay in the basement, avoid any public interaction, and hope that an overwhelming advantage among Democrats in New York will carry her over the line.
Just days ago, a shooting occurred outside of Zeldin’s New York home on Long Island. It was almost a hand-delivered campaign talking point driving home what most New Yorkers already think, that the city and state, in general, are becoming unsafe in many areas. Here he is describing the incident on Fox News:
Calls for New York Governor Kathy Hochul to Reign
as street violence reaches Lee Zeldin's home.
93% of Democrats say #NewYork is not safe. pic.twitter.com/umGRgD4eBI
— PatrickMcMilan707 (@PMilan707) October 10, 2022
Hochul, and just about every elected Democrat in New York, is taking a beating for the rampant crime and deteriorating conditions in America’s largest city:
When you see Kathy Hochul's New York looks like it's worse then a third-world country, it's important to vote for Lee Zeldin on November 8th.
Fun fact: Gov. Kathy Hochul was never elected, she was installed just like a toilet bowl. pic.twitter.com/wqq2DSijD5
— Bea A Stephens (@BeaAStephens1) October 4, 2022
Hochul’s weak position didn’t develop overnight. We highlighted the race back in early September when polling showed she was potentially vulnerable and unable to hit the 50% mark of support in the state. Even at that stage, a month ago, she was doing reporters and avoiding questions.
Still, it’s New York, and Zeldin has an uphill battle as the state may simply be too overwhelmingly blue for a Republican to win statewide any longer. The path to victory for Zeldin probably relies on a discouraged Democratic Party base downstate and an energized conservative base upstate. If enough Democrats sit this one out, discouraged by Hochul’s lackluster leadership and a state in decay, Zeldin might pull a big upset if he can mobilize an enthused Republican base in November.
After all, it almost happened in New Jersey last year and no one was paying attention.
