If the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade was supposed to make GOP candidates in every race more vulnerable, the data isn’t showing it.
Sure, there are races where abortion is more prevalent in ads and campaigning, but in an overall sense, this election cycle is not being decided by where a candidate stands on curtailing abortion. If anything, some of the races have turned on the cult-like position of Democrats who refuse to say if they support any limits on the practice whatsoever. Compared to that extreme which amounts to abortion up to the moment of birth, erring on the side of life seems like a prudent and reasonable science-based stance.
It’s that context where Republicans have gained substantial ground since the Dobbs decision was announced as the generic ballot continues to drift toward the GOP in a historical way:
RCP Generic Ballot Polling Average
Pre Dobbs
Republicans 44.3% (+2.8)
Democrats 41.5%TODAY
Republicans 48.1% (+3.3)
Democrats 44.8% pic.twitter.com/3LkFNQ0ld3— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 20, 2022
Both parties have gained ground since the decision and naturally as more voters tune in and pay attention to their local races. It’s Republicans, though, who were already ahead and continued to build a lead while Democrats ignore inflation and the economy in favor of running another campaign on Donald Trump and abortion. It didn’t work for Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the 2021 Virginia Governor’s race, and it’s not working now.
None of this matters for Democrats who are all-in on the standard messaging of abortion rights. They’re a one-trick pony right now. It was evident during the various debates this week in New York, Pennsylvania, and Michigan:
Abortion and coronavirus school closures dominated Tuesday’s final Michigan gubernatorial debate.
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and her GOP challenger, Tudor Dixon, squared off two weeks before Election Day. As polls show the race increasingly tight, both women sought to portray the other as an extremist on the issue of abortion.
“You can’t trust anything she says when it comes to reproductive rights,” said Whitmer, who is vying for a second term as Michigan’s chief executive.
Dixon, meanwhile, accused Whitmer of being out of the political mainstream on abortion.
“The governor has just been dishonest,” said Dixon, a mother of four and former conservative commentator. “In her past, she’s voted against a ban on partial-birth abortion.”
Some Democrats, like election denier Stacey Abrams in the Georgia Governor’s race, have even tried to tie abortion and inflation together claiming that protecting abortion rights will somehow help fight inflation:
Stacey Abrams says unrestricted abortion-on-demand can help solve inflation: "Having children is why you’re worried about your price for gas. It’s why you’re concerned about how much food costs." pic.twitter.com/5CDEAKMDwN
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 19, 2022
The only way for Abrams to speak on this issue is to ignore the question and equate abortion rights with the price of groceries. Fine, run on that platform and see how far it goes because some recent polls give Republican incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp a double-digit lead over Abrams.
It’s a sick and twisted mindset to try and fight inflation with a message of proposing more unfettered abortion access as the solution. In that regard, Democrats have produced their own marketing machine with Biden’s failed economic policies leading to record inflation, thereby providing an argument that abortion rights are necessary for those hardest hit by Democrat policies.
It’s a bizarre message from a party on the ropes drowning in their own failures emanating from the White House. Rather than listen to voters and their concerns about everyday living, Democrats are doubling down on the abortion message and carrying that flag to Election Day. If they end up losing big, what will the liberal commentators and analysts say? Will they admit running on abortion during a year of decades-high inflation was a mistake? Don’t hold your breath.
