That is the question whirling around strategy sessions within the Democratic Party echelons this morning. Everyone agrees that John Fetterman damaged himself with his abysmal debate performance and sparked new interest from voters demanding more answers about his health.
The bottom line, however, is that Pennsylvania still favors Democrats statewide and some of the biggest names in the party are being dispatched to places like Philadelphia to try and sure up Fetterman’s support. There have already been two post-debate polls that show Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz now in the lead, one of which we discussed on Friday. The momentum in the race was already starting to slide toward Oz, the debate simply ignited the exodus of independents and undecideds from possibly landing on Fetterman when they get to the voting booth.
As The Hill reports this morning, Democrats are pulling no punches in trying to revive Fetterman’s flailing campaign and will be holding last-minute campaign events all week:
“There [are] two choices: We rally around or you abandon, and nobody has abandoned John,” said T.J. Rooney, the former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.
“It’s caused voters, and I can’t say for better or worse, to lean in more and want to know more,” he continued.
Fetterman’s campaign cut an ad hitting Oz over the remarks less than a day after the debate.
President Biden also got in on the attack line against Oz, tweeting on Wednesday, “If Oz gets his way, where does this end?”
The national Democratic campaign apparatus is also working to go on the offensive against Oz in the days after the debate, rolling out an ad on Friday hitting the Republican over medical views and products he promoted on his show prior to running for office.
Additionally, Fetterman got a boost from Biden and Vice President Harris, who made a rare joint visit to Philadelphia on Friday to campaign for the Democratic Senate candidate. Biden is slated to return with former President Obama to campaign for Fetterman on Nov. 5.
Calling in former President Obama to campaign in Philadelphia shows you how desperate things have become in this race that was practically declared over back in July. Fetterman was up double-digits in many polls and Oz was floundering to come up with a cohesive message and build a connection with voters.
Whether or not Oz succeeded in finding his path or simply now stands as a plausible and acceptable alternative to a man who clearly is unable to handle the job and unwilling to fully disclose his health records to voters, the race is now a wide-open sprint. The debate opened up many more questions than answers giving Oz the opening he needed to look and sound the part.
As for the second poll out showing Oz in the lead, it’s from Wick Insights and it pegs the race at 47-45 in Oz’s favor:
A separate survey of 1,000 likely voters from Wick Insights saw a similar margin in Oz’s favor: 47.6% of respondents said they would vote for Oz if the election were held today, versus 45.9% who would choose Fetterman. In that poll, 3% of those surveyed said they were undecided.
However, hold the champagne, there’s also yet another new poll out this morning from the New York Times and Siena College that still gives Fetterman a five-point lead:
Democratic Pennsylvania Senate nominee John Fetterman is leading Republican Mehmet Oz by 5 points, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll published just more than a week before Election Day.
About 49 percent of likely voters surveyed support Fetterman while 44 percent back Oz.
Take them all for what they’re worth which may come down to the turnout model. If Fetterman’s vote is suppressed by concerns over his health and Oz’s enthusiasm is through the roof, it’s more likely to be an Oz victory on Election Day. On the other hand, if things remain as they’ve been, which seems unlikely, then Fetterman could still coast in with a slim victory.
The internal polls, which we rarely get to see, must be of great concern to Fetterman or they wouldn’t be dispatching Obama, Biden, and anyone else that’ll agree to come and rally the troops. In other words, if the Fetterman campaign still thought they were up five points, they’d be playing the basement strategy and have Obama and friends campaigning elsewhere.
It’s an all-hands-on-deck moment for Dems if they can’t reclaim this Senate seat to possibly offset Republican victories in areas like Arizona, Nevada, or Georgia. If any of those seats turn red, Dems will need Pennsylvania’s Senate race to turn blue in response.
