As predicted, here it is. The first poll so far to show Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz with a lead over Democrat John Fetterman in the highly contested Pennsylvania Senate race.
With Fetterman’s abysmal debate performance where he lied about his position on fracking and was unable to demonstrate he could handle the job in light of his health conditions, the race is starting to shift toward a possible Republican upset. The latest numbers from InsiderAdvantage, conducted entirely after the debate on Tuesday, give Oz a three-point lead over Fetterman and a strong showing with late-breaking undecideds:
The first poll conducted after the sole debate for Pennsylvania’s Senate seat shows RepublicanMehmet Oz with his first lead against Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman.
InsiderAdvantage surveyed 750 likely voters on 26 October, the day after the debate between the former television host and physician and Mr Fetterman. The poll has a 3.58 margin of error.
Last week, the same poll showed Mr Fetterman and Dr Oz in a deadheat match. But the new poll shows Dr Oz beats Mr Fetterman 47.5 per cent to 44.8 per cent.
As the above-sentence notes, the InsiderAdvantage numbers have moved toward Oz since the last round of polling showed the race in a tie. Among the more pertinent details, this poll also found independent and undecided voters breaking heavily toward Oz:
The poll showed that Dr Oz has a more than 43-point lead with the 174 independent voters polled. Dr Oz also leads with 57 per cent to 36 per cent with likely male voters and has a slight advantage with white voters, with 47.7 per cent supporting him and 45.7 per cent supporting Mr Fetterman.
Conversely, 52.9 per cent of likely female voters support Mr Fetterman compared to 39 per cent who support Dr Oz.
The poll is being criticized for being light on the number of respondents and accusations that it under-samples the 18 to 39-year-old age bracket. With any poll, numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, but it’s also impossible to argue that the momentum in the race hasn’t shifted in Oz’s favor. Even many Democrats agree that Fetterman hurt his chances by even agreeing to the debate.
Fetterman is not a lost cause in the race by any means and he could still churn out a victory with heavy turnout in areas like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia that could consume any newfound advantage by Oz. The question will be whether Republican voter enthusiasm, which is outpacing Democrats so far in most polls, can generate enough voter turnout in the rest of the state to push Oz over the top.
Look for new polling over the weekend to confirm whether these numbers are an outlier or part of a new trend where Oz is starting to see some undecided numbers shifting in his direction.
Out of the most recent PA Senate polls, Fetterman now only leads by an average of 0.3% according to RealClearPolitics. That’s quite a stunning change from 30 days ago when the race practically looked like a Democratic pickup and attention would be better spent elsewhere.
In case you missed it, watch the full Oz-Fetterman debate from Tuesday and judge for yourself.