Four days after Election Day, two U.S. Senate races remain unresolved, and both are remarkably close.
Democrats have already secured control of the Senate with at least 54 seats, so neither Alaska nor Mississippi can change which party runs the chamber next year. They will, however, determine the size of the Democratic majority. If Republicans win both, the Senate would stand at 54-46. A split would produce a 55-45 chamber, while Democratic victories in both states would push the majority to 56-44.
The two races are being held up for very different reasons. Mississippi has reported the Election Day vote but is still processing thousands of absentee and affidavit ballots. Alaska has considerably more ballots left to count and could eventually require a ranked-choice tabulation later this month.
Mississippi: Scott Colom (D) Holds a Razor-Thin Lead
Democrat Scott Colom continues to hold a lead of roughly 2,500 votes over Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in one of the biggest surprises of the 2026 midterms. The latest Associated Press count has Colom at about 49.1% and Hyde-Smith at 48.8%, with independent candidate Ty Pinkins taking just over 2%.
All Election Day precincts have reported, but that does not mean every ballot has been counted. The Associated Press estimated Friday afternoon that roughly 30,000 ballots could still be outstanding statewide, although that number remains subject to change as county officials provide more information.
Mississippi does not have the kind of centralized election reporting system used in many other states. Its 82 counties process absentee and affidavit ballots on their own schedules, which is why a race can show 100% of precincts reporting while thousands of valid ballots remain uncounted.
Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive through Nov. 10, while counties have until Nov. 13 to report certified totals that include provisional, or affidavit, ballots. State officials said Thursday that about 7,000 provisional ballots had already been processed and roughly 80% were accepted.
Hinds County Could Be Crucial
The remaining geography gives both campaigns reasons to keep watching closely. Hinds County, the state’s largest county and one of its strongest Democratic areas, appears to have a meaningful number of ballots left to process. Colom currently leads Hyde-Smith there by roughly 47,000 votes, and AP estimated Friday that about 7% of the county’s ballots could still be outstanding.
Republican-leaning Rankin County also has votes left. County officials told AP they had more than 1,600 provisional ballots along with several hundred mail ballots in various stages of processing. Madison County, another traditionally Republican area where Colom has nevertheless performed competitively, also has outstanding affidavits.
The unusual county-by-county process has attracted attorneys and observers from both parties. Mississippi Today reported Friday that campaign representatives and voting-rights groups were monitoring election offices as workers continued processing the remaining ballots.
Both campaigns say they still have a path. Hyde-Smith has urged supporters to wait for the count to finish, while Colom has increasingly spoken as though the late vote is developing in his favor without calling on the incumbent to concede.
A Colom Victory Would Be Historic
The race was not expected to be one of the final Senate contests left standing. Mississippi has been reliably Republican in federal elections for years, and Hyde-Smith entered the election as an incumbent in a state Donald Trump won comfortably in 2024.
If Colom holds the lead, he would become Mississippi’s first Black U.S. senator since Reconstruction. That would be a notable result in a state where Black residents make up close to 40% of the population but have rarely held statewide office.
There is another wrinkle if the final margin remains extremely small: Mississippi does not provide for an automatic recount and candidates cannot simply request one. A recount would generally require a court order, making the initial county canvasses and certification process especially important.
Alaska: Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan Are Separated by Hundreds of Votes
Alaska is just as close, but the process is very different. Democrat Mary Peltola currently leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by only 637 votes in the latest AP count, 48.2% to 47.9%, with roughly 74% of the expected vote reported.
The remaining vote includes absentee ballots, ballots from remote communities and votes from Alaskans living or serving overseas. Alaska allows some ballots to arrive well after Election Day, an especially important provision in a state where many communities are accessible only by air or water and mail can take considerably longer to reach election offices.
The AP Alaska results will continue to update as those ballots are processed. State election officials are targeting Nov. 18 for the ranked-choice tabulation if no candidate reaches a majority of first-choice votes.
Ranked-Choice Voting Could Decide Alaska
Neither Peltola nor Sullivan is currently above 50%, which means Alaska’s ranked-choice system could ultimately decide the race. Two minor candidates remain on the board: Republican Gerald Heikes has about 2.3% of the vote, while Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., running under the UDC label, has roughly 1.7%.
If no candidate reaches 50% after the remaining first-choice ballots are counted, the lowest-performing candidate is eliminated and those ballots are redistributed according to voters’ next choices. The process continues until one candidate has a majority.
That makes the relatively small pool of third-party and additional Republican votes potentially important, but it is too early to know how those voters ranked the two leading candidates. The raw first-choice margin alone therefore cannot determine the eventual winner.
The Fake Dan Sullivan Is Now Part of the Story
Alaska’s count has another unusual wrinkle: a second candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. has received about 3,600 first-choice votes, far more than the current margin separating Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
The candidacy was controversial long before Election Day. Alaska election officials initially concluded that Daniel J. Sullivan’s filing appeared designed to confuse voters because he had tried to use the name “Dan Sullivan” and affiliate as a Republican despite not previously using that name or party affiliation. A court later allowed him back on the ballot. State records detail the original finding.
The controversy intensified in October when reporting from The New York Times, summarized by Alaska Public Media, said operatives aligned with Mary Peltola had helped recruit Daniel J. Sullivan and other spoiler candidates into the race. Peltola has denied that her campaign was involved, but the paper trail is clear.
That matters now because Peltola’s lead over the incumbent is measured in hundreds of votes, while the second Sullivan has more than 3,000. Ranked-choice voting could reduce the impact if those ballots eventually transfer to the Republican incumbent, but any voter who mistakenly selected the wrong Sullivan and did not rank the incumbent could still affect the final outcome. Axios explained how the ranked-choice process could limit, but not necessarily eliminate, the effect of the confusion.
The situation is now under state and federal scrutiny. Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation into whether the recruitment effort violated state law, while federal authorities have also examined the circumstances surrounding the candidacy. Alaska Public Media has more on the investigation.
Why Alaska Could Take Much Longer
Mississippi could begin to clarify over the next several days as counties work through absentee and affidavit ballots ahead of their Nov. 13 certification deadline. Alaska is built for a longer wait.
State officials must allow time for valid late-arriving ballots, particularly those from overseas and remote communities. If the race proceeds to ranked-choice tabulation, the decisive count may not occur until Nov. 18. Both Peltola and Sullivan have told supporters to expect patience rather than an immediate result.
The current first-choice count is close enough that neither side can claim the race is effectively over. Peltola’s lead is measured in hundreds of votes, with tens of thousands still expected to be added to the statewide total.
What the Two Races Mean for the Final Senate
Unlike on Election Night, there is no longer any suspense over control of the chamber. Democrats will hold the Senate when the new Congress convenes. Alaska and Mississippi are now about the final margin.
A Republican sweep would leave Democrats with 54 seats and Republicans with 46. If the parties split the remaining races, Democrats would hold a 55-45 majority. If Peltola and Colom both win, Democrats would reach 56 seats after an election in which they already flipped Republican-held seats across a wide swath of the country.
Mississippi appears likely to provide more meaningful updates first, but its unusually decentralized counting process means the race could still remain unresolved through the weekend. Alaska may take considerably longer, particularly if the contest proceeds to ranked-choice voting.
For now, both remain exactly what they have been since Tuesday night: too close to call.