Politico is forecasting that the GOP will take control of the House and Senate this November. It’s an article in the category of, “well, duh.” Presidents almost always lose a fairly large number of seats in their first off-year election, and Biden has no buffer at all.
In the Senate, it will only take one flip to give control to the Republicans. Even with the Vice President casting a vote, the number would be 51-50.
In the House, Biden has a few seats for the majority, but Politico considers it “likely” that the GOP will take over, while the senate is just considered, “leaning” GOP.
In the House, Democrats’ five-seat majority is highly endangered. In the Senate, their control of the 50-50 chamber hinges on Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote. But a Senate map that favors Democrats gives them a better chance of overcoming the expected national headwinds.
Politico got specific with Senate races to watch:
Arizona Senate–Republicans face a crowded primary for the right to face Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, who narrowly won a special election in 2020.
Georgia Senate–Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election.
Nevada Senate–Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race in her fight for a second term.
Pennsylvania Senate–The open-seat race in Pennsylvania is Democrats’ best pickup chance in their fight to retain their narrow Senate majority.
Wisconsin Senate–GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term — making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020.
New Hampshire Senate–Republicans’ late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation’s smallest swing state.
And in the house:
California’s 27th District–The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points.
Iowa’s 3rd District–Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. But 2022 will be a steeper climb.
Maine’s 2nd District–House Democrats’ most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment.
Michigan’s 7th District–Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind.
Nebraska’s 2nd District–Former President Donald Trump was trawling for challengers to GOP Rep. Don Bacon earlier this year. But Bacon is probably the only Republican who could hold this blue-trending, Omaha-based seat.
Ohio’s 1st District–GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio”s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb.
Pennsylvania’s 7th District–Pennsylvania’s new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats — except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her.
Texas’s 15th District–Republicans’ South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election.
Virginia’s 7th District–Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall.
In another article, Politico notes that, “The last time a new Democratic president faced his first midterm — Barack Obama in 2010 — Republicans flipped 63 House seats and six Senate seats,” but offers five variables that could change the outcome.
The 2022 election was always going to be a bear for Democrats. The only question was how bad it might get. At the moment, it appears, really bad: President Joe Biden’s cratering approval rating has his party scrambling to avoid losses so deep that it can’t dig out of the hole in 2024. . .
Here are five X-factors that could scramble the POLITICO Election Forecast between now and November.
Primary problems
This year, again with the wind at their backs, Republicans have their share of primary headaches.
• Chief among them is former Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens, who resigned in disgrace in 2019 and now faces allegations of domestic violence and child abuse. . .
• In Georgia, former football star Herschel Walker has similar allegations in his past. . .
• North Carolina House candidate Bo Hines could jeopardize the GOP’s chances in swing states and districts come November. . .
Democrats have their own primaries to worry about. The frontrunners for the nomination in their two best Senate pickup opportunities — John Fetterman in Pennsylvania and Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin — hail from the party’s liberal wing, and both primary races could turn ugly.Blurred lines
We’re still waiting for new congressional lines in three GOP-controlled states: Florida, Missouri and New Hampshire. . .If New York’s highest court concurs with a local judge in throwing out that state’s congressional map for impermissible gerrymandering, it could cost Democrats a handful of seats they’d engineered to be easy wins. Republican-drawn maps in Ohio and Kansas are also under review and could be struck down before the November election.Past the peak
Some economists believe inflation has peaked, and the growth rate in prices will slow in the coming months. And the Biden White House is plotting a new focus on the scourge of rising prices. . .That could help stop the bleeding, [and] would put Democrats in a stronger position to defend their most vulnerable “Toss Up” senators: Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.), Mark Kelly (Ariz.) and Raphael Warnock (Ga.).Economic recession
Greater pessimism could lead to further losses for Democrats. Instead of clinging to their Senate majority, the party would be retrenching to defend Senate seats in states like Colorado and Washington state, or House members like Reps. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), Antonio Delgado (D-N.Y.) and Bill Foster (D-Ill.) — Democratic incumbents running for reelection in districts Biden carried by low-double-digit margins.Abortion politics
Given the GOP’s momentum on the economy, a new issue set before voters could be unpredictable. But the Republican candidates who could be most harmed by a sweeping ruling from the high court are in blue states where laws exist to protect abortion rights, even if Roe is struck down — incumbents like Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.) and Michelle Steel (R-Calif.).
Anything could happen between now and November, but Democrats are kidding themselves if they think they’ll stay in power. The best argument they have is that the economy has been strong, and unemployment has almost disappeared. But this writer is old enough to remember the 1960 election, in which Richard Nixon said, “you’ve never had it so good.” He was absolutely right, of course, but saying it out loud makes it sound like you don’t care, and you don’t think things could get better.
What people “feel” is pain. There are shocks at the pump and at the grocery store. It doesn’t help to point out that inflation always follows long wars, or that the massive disruption of the pandemic restricted supply, so demand always drives up prices. It is also doesn’t help to blame Putin for the war in Ukraine, even though it has disrupted grain shipments from Ukraine (“the world’s breadbasket”), or that we have tried to restrict oil sales by Russia, to weaken them.
If history is any guide, there is no way that the Democrats will hold either house of Congress.
