Could Ted Cruz surprise everyone with a win in Indiana? Most of the polls say he’ll lose. The odds-makers give him almost no chance. His favorability has taken a dive, and Donald Trump seems to have people lining up to support him now. But Politico says. . .not so fast.
Politico says there has not been enough polling to declare a “presumptive” winner in the state.
With only seven public telephone surveys in Indiana in the past month, the state hasn’t seen the same attention as other major primary contests. That’s fewer than the nine public phone polls in the last month before the Wisconsin primary, or the 17 before last month’s New York primary.
The relative dearth of public polling — and the variance of the polls that have been released, including one that showed Cruz leading by 16 points and a few more recent surveys that gave Trump similarly large leads — is the result of a number of factors: a longer primary process than some organizations budgeted for, the relatively short one-week run-up to the primary and unique state laws that make it more difficult to conduct some kinds of phone surveys.
It adds a layer of uncertainty to Tuesday night’s high-stakes primary, in which Trump can strengthen his chances to win a majority of delegates on the first ballot at the convention with a decisive victory in Indiana or Cruz can get a burst of adrenaline.
The 16-point Cruz lead was surprising, since six of the recent seven polls showed Trump in the lead.
IPFW pollster Andy Downs told POLITICO his team was surprised when the results came back with Cruz way on top – even wondering if the results for Cruz and Trump were incorrectly reversed.
“At one point, we asked ourselves, ‘Did we code these wrong?’” Downs said.
One possible answer is that the poll wasn’t “demographically weighted” to make sure there was a representative sample. There’s a 33-point variance among the polls, with the most favorable Trump poll putting him 17 points ahead, but that Gravis Marketing poll is not as respected. However, the Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Maris poll is very respected, and puts Trump up by 15.
In the quest for the Republican nomination, businessman Donald Trump, 49%, is ahead of Texas Senator Ted Cruz, 34%, by 15 points among likely Republican primary voters in Indiana. Ohio Governor John Kasich trails far behind with 13%. Trump has the advantage among many key demographic groups. He especially outdistances his opponents among likely Republican primary voters who self-identify as moderate or conservative, those who are over 45, without a college education, or who are men. Cruz does best among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves as very conservative.
59% of likely Republican primary voters with a candidate preference report they strongly support their choice of candidate. 66% of Trump’s backers compared with 56% of Cruz’s supporters and 40% of those for Kasich say they are firmly committed to their candidate selection.
Real Clear Politics averages polls, and gives Trump a 10.8 advantage. HOWEVER, it should be noted that they threw out the poll showing Cruz with a huge lead.
What if the Cruz poll is right? Election Betting Odds doesn’t believe it, giving Trump 94.6% odds to win.
But, as we’ve seen this year, anything could happen.