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We are watching polls AND the betting table. A lot of times, this year, the polls have been so old as to be worthless.

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But we have a divergence to watch.

In Idaho, The Idaho Politics Weekly/Dan Jones poll has Trump way ahead, as of March 6:

Trump—30
Cruz—19
Rubio—15
Kasich—5
Someone else—9
Don’t know—11
Carson—11

Of course, that’s at least 22% that has to go somewhere else. But realistically, last-minute deciders don’t all go the same way, so Trump has the edge.

But here’s the surprising thing: Election Betting Odds says people have money on Cruz to win Idaho.

Again, this is not voting percentage, but probability of the Idaho winner, as of 10 pm, March 7:

Cruz—67.3%
Trump—27.4%
Rubio—3.3%

There are no polls for Mississippi (what’s up with that?), but Election Betting Odds are as follows:

Trump—87.2%
Cruz—12.7%
Rubio—ZERO

Likewise, there are no polls for Hawaii, but Election Betting Odds are as follows:

Rubio—36.8%
Cruz—31.8%
Trump—24.7%
Kasich—6.7%

In Michigan, both the polls and the betting table say it will be a blowout for Trump.

It will be interesting to see how good the bettors are. However, we should consider two things. First, as with all “live” betting, the odds change on a minute-by-minute basis. Second, the number of bettors is fairly “thin,” so if a few people drop some money on a name, the odds could change drastically.

Now, then, this is not exactly equal time, but we do have some Democratic primaries, too, on Tuesday. So, using the same sources as above, here are the polls:

Michigan—Clinton +37%

And the bettors give these odds of winning (probability):

Michigan—Clinton—90.1%
Mississippi—Clinton—99.9%

So. . .the state to watch will be Idaho. The polls show Trump with a lead, but the bettors say it’s more than twice as likely that Cruz will take the state. We’ll keep you posted.

4 COMMENTS

  1. The question for today’s vote is whether Romney’s War on Trump Voters, which probably cut 5%-10% off Trump’s Mar 5 votes, has a lasting into through the General or if Mitten’s sucker punch from outside the ring is dissapating as suddenly as it surfaced.

    Honestly, Mittens looks so jealous of Mr. Donald J. Trump that he is trying to lose the 2016 election too.

    Trump Voters!

    • I’m not convinced Romney had an impact. For one thing, he just repeated every charge anyone had made. There was nothing new in his speech. Secondly, most of the people who want to vote for Trump think that “Willard” is an empty-suit has-been with delusions of grandeur.

  2. Our article says that odds can change fast. But so far, they’re pretty steady. Twelve hours after the above, the odds are
    84.7% that Trump, and 90.5% that Hillary, will win Michigan;
    87.1% Trump and 99.9% Hillary in Mississippi;
    67.6% Cruz in Idaho; and
    42.6% Rubio in Hawaii.

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