Only Breitbart Confident Among Rightwing Sites
The maps in the last two articles (here and here) were all taken from those which were highlighted by 270towin.com. We decided to check the AltRight, and thereabouts, to see if the far right had different maps. We could not find any for The Washington Examiner or Newsmax. But we only needed six to be like the other two articles, and we have them.
First, let’s look at Breitbart, since it is now sort of the communications arm of Trump, Inc. Not surprisingly, Breitbart’s map shows a Trump win—with 275 Electoral Votes.
The reliably red Republican states—Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Indiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, and South Carolina—are all expected to easily vote for Trump for president. That totals 164 electoral votes. . .
Georgia and Arizona, both of those states—per recent polling—have seemingly moved solidly into the Trump column. That’s another 27 electoral votes, for a total of 191 electoral votes with the other red states. . . From there, add in Florida with 29 electoral votes. . . Assuming Trump can lock down Florida and its 29 electoral votes that he will need to win the White House, and add that to the rest he already has, he then hits 220 electoral votes. . .
Move from there out to Nevada and Iowa for a total of 12 more electoral votes—six per each state. . . Fit Iowa and Nevada in the Trump column and he is up to 232 electoral votes. . . Next up is Maine’s Second Congressional District. Maine is one of those two funky states that splits its electoral votes by congressional district—Nebraska, which is solidly in Trump’s column, is the other—and Trump is polling significantly ahead of Clinton there. . . With that picture, he is at 233 total electoral votes.
North Carolina, another state where Stein is not on the ballot, has seen Trump trend upwards in polling during September. . . If Trump locks down North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes on top of everything aforementioned, that puts him at 248 total and in striking distance of the presidency.
This brings us to the all-important state of Ohio. . . If Trump locks up Ohio’s 18 electoral votes, and adds them to everything else, he is at 266 electoral votes. . . That means he would be one state away from the presidency. From where is it going to come? New Hampshire. . .Virginia. . .Michigan. . .Wisconsin. . .Or Colorado. . .
For now, it appears the answer is first and foremost Colorado. . . If Trump secures Colorado’s 9 electoral votes, along with everything else considered, he would win at least 275 electoral votes—without even considering Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire, or even other places where he has been seen trending upwards in polls like New Mexico—on November 8. That’s the ballgame.
The Daily Caller also has its own map.
Unfortunately, it looks a lot like the mainstream maps, with Hillary at 274. That’s even with Trump winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Maybe we ought to hurry on to the next map.
Certainly Fox News will have better news for Trump?
The FBI’s October surprise appears to have improved Donald Trump’s overall standing in the electoral map, with the latest Fox News Electoral Scorecard showing several states shifting in his favor since last week.
The Fox News Decision Team announced updates to the scorecard Thursday afternoon, reflecting the following changes based on recent polling and other factors:
New Hampshire moves from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up”
Ohio moves from “toss-up” to “lean Republican”
Indiana moves from “lean Republican” to “solid Republican”
Missouri moves from “lean Republican” to “solid Republican”
. . . If Trump were to win all the states leaning toward or solidly in the GOP column, he’d be short at 192 electoral votes. But winning all the toss-up states would put him just 15 electoral votes shy of 270. One more win in North Carolina, Michigan or Pennsylvania could get him to victory. . .
In the latest states to shift, Ohio is the most highly sought prize. Trump has been leading there for weeks and his recent national bounce moves the state back into his column. Early ballot requests also suggest a Republican advantage.
The Electoral Scorecard also recently moved Florida and Nevada from “lean Democrat” into the “toss-up” column as well, while North Carolina shifted from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.”
Red State has a map, too.
But it’s worse than the one from The Daily Caller. Red State gives Hillary 216 Electors, and the states of Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. “And that’s it. Game over.”
There will likely be one last batch of polls released tomorrow (Caleb has the latest rundown on national polls), but there is a lot out there to digest already. By all indications, despite the tightening of the race, Donald Trump has an extremely narrow path to 270 electoral votes and it requires flipping states Democrats won in 2008 and 2012.
Next up is The Washington Times. It doesn’t show the map, but describes it.
But the headline is, “Donald Trump’s electoral map looking worse than ‘choke artist’ Mitt Romney’s did in 2012.”
Donald Trump’s electoral map looks worse than Mitt Romney’s did four years ago at this point in the race, upending the billionaire businessman’s claim that his unorthodox appeal would be able to put new states in play for the GOP.
He has done just that — only it’s mostly been in the wrong direction, leaving him struggling to win states that have been deep red for generations.
Political handicappers now say Mr. Trump could end up with fewer electoral college votes than Mr. Romney — who lost to President Obama by a 332-206 margin, and whom Mr. Trump has described as a “stone cold loser” and a “choke artist.”. . .
Former Romney staffers say Mr. Trump’s struggles prove the former Massachusetts governor deserves more credit for the race he ran against Mr. Obama, an incumbent president, four years ago.
“His opponent is as popular as a skunk at a garden party, and Trump has proven to be a big-league choke artist, and he is on track for a historic and humiliating defeat in race that would have been won by any other Republican,” said Ryan Williams, an ex-Romney aide.
National Review doesn’t have a graphic, but they have a lot to say.
I’m on record for over a year now saying I don’t believe Trump can win a general election, and I still don’t think he will. But as election analysts like Nate Silver and Sean Trende and Nate Cohn have been warning, just because the likely outcome from the polling and early voting data shows a likely Trump loss does not mean that’s what we’re going to see on Tuesday. Intensively-polled races are rarely way, way off – but an error of a few points off the poll averages is fairly common. Polls underestimated Republicans rather systematically in 2002, 2014 and 2015, and Democrats in 2012 and 1998. As Trende noted a few days ago, if the polling averages underestimated Trump by just as much as they underestimated Obama at the same point in 2012, Trump would win.
. . . it’s not at all implausible that polls this close could be wrong across the board by just enough to flip the map. And if that happens, after Hillary leading the polls all the way to the end, expect a very ugly aftermath to Tuesday.