Since everyone is remembering “the artist formerly [and again] known as Prince” this week, let’s look at “Just Another Manic Tuesday” of primaries. And regarding Bernie Sanders, will this be “When Doves Cry?” Let’s face it, for Bernie and Ted Cruz, “Sometimes it Snows in April.”
That’s a good enough reason to begin with the Dems this time to discuss yet another Super Tuesday in 5 states.
DEMOCRATS
PENNSYLVANIA—210 Delegates
Polls—Hillary is ahead by 14.8%
Odds—Hillary’s probability to win is 94.5%
MARYLAND—118 Delegates
Polls—Hillary is ahead by 35.3%
Odds—Hillary’s probability to win is 97.1%
CONNECTICUT—70 Delegates
Polls—Hillary is ahead by 7.5%
Odds—Hillary’s probability to win is 92.7%
RHODE ISLAND—33 Delegates
Polls—Hillary is ahead by 9%
Odds—Hillary’s probability to win is 69.6%
DELAWARE—31 Delegates
Polls—Hillary is ahead by 7%
Odds—Hillary ‘s probability to win is 95.9%
Despite supporters who say, “I Would Die 4 U,” Bernie was obviously burned by New York.
Sanders conceded his campaign has only a “narrow path to victory” but that they would “fight…through that path. We hope to win.”
This was a different tone than the one he used just a few weeks ago when he confidently assured supporters, “We are going to win New York.” He ended up losing the state to Hillary Clinton by 16 points.
Yet Sanders insisted his campaign is “not writing our obituary.” Looking ahead, Sanders said, “We’re in this race to California, and we’re proud of the campaign we ran.”
Now, let’s flip to the GOP:
REPUBLICANS
PENNSYLVANIA—71 Delegates (Trump’s path target is 48)
Polls—Trump is 19.5% ahead of Cruz (the only state where Cruz is second place)
Odds—Trump’s probability to win is 94.5%
MARYLAND—38 Delegates (Trump’s path target is 32)
Polls—Trump is 14.7% ahead of Kasich
Odds—Trump’s probability to win is 94.7%
CONNECTICUT—28 Delegates (Trump’s path target is 21)
Polls—Trump is 22.7% ahead of Kasich
Odds—Trump’s probability to win is 96.4%
RHODE ISLAND—19 Delegates (Trump’s path target is 10)
Polls—Trump is 13% ahead of Kasich
Odds—Trump’s probability to win is 96.9%
DELAWARE—16 Delegates (Trump’s path target is 16)
Polls—Trump is 37% ahead of Kasich
Odds—Trump ‘s probability to win is 97%
FiveThirtyEight has a path to victory for Donald Trump. The numbers above are the number of delegates that Trump was projected to win in each state in order to reach 1237 on the last day of the primaries—preventing a contested convention.
Today, Trump is 5% below his target. He should have had 892 delegates to be on his path. But he’s 46 behind, at 846. He’s expected to get 127 delegates Tuesday. If he gets 173 (somehow), he’ll be right on target to get the nomination on the first ballot.
Trump’s real worry is next week in Indiana. In order to stay “on path” next week, he’ll have to take 51 of the 57 delegates—90%, and Kasich already has the Indiana establishment behind him, and is in control of the state committees. In addition, Ted Cruz has put an enormous effort into the state, hoping to make it another “Wisconsin” type victory. And now, Kasich has said he’ll bow out of the State. Will the public rebel over the duplicity, or will it destroy Trump’s chances?
But this week, Trump still looks like the crown “Prince” of the campaign, and he’s “gonna party like it’s 1999.”
