Polls, Odds, States, Delegates, Popular Vote–Where We Stand
This page is our effort to give you a view of both what to expect from Wisconsin primary, and where we stand in the paths to victory for the top two candidates in both parties. That includes the polls, but also the betting odds, which give a gambler’s probability for the candidates.
THE DEMOCRATIC RACE
The most recent poll puts Hillary up by point, but last month, Bernie was 8% up, so RCP averages several polls and now gives Bernie the edge by 2.6%.
Gamblers are more “bullish” on Bernie in Wisconsin, betting 84.7% that he’ll win the state. However, they’re betting Hillary will get the nomination by 84.4%, but that’s down from 91.8% last month.
Hillary has 18 states–Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona
Bernie has won 14 states–New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, and Hawaii.
The delegate race on the Dem side is more complicated. While Hillary is ahead in won delegates, 1243 to 980, she can add 469 “superdelegates” whom are not elected, compared to only 31 for Bernie. That gives Hillary a lead of 1712 to 1011, with 2382 needed to win.
The total primary popular vote also goes to Hillary, 8,924, 821 to 6,397.980. The gap is even greater than the above gap between Trump and Cruz. And, of course, it makes it hard for Bernie to claim that “the people” are behind him.
THE ENDORSEMENT RACE
In the point system described in the GOP section above, Hillary has 489 points, to 7 for Bernie.
THE REPUBLICAN RACE
The polls have consistently shown Cruz ahead of Trump, by as much as 10% in Wisconsin, but Real Clear Politics averages recent polls, and puts Cruz ahead 39.2%, with 34.5% for Trump, and 20% for Kasich. Net lead is 4.7% for Cruz. Nationally, Trump is ahead 40.4% to 32.8% for Cruz, and 20.6% for Kasich, so Trump is favored by 7.6%. Of course, the national numbers hardly matter, since delegates are won state-by-state. Also, of course, the polls include Kasich, whose supporters could go either way.
Election Betting Odds say gamblers think Wisconsin is a done deal. They give Cruz an 82% probability of winning the state. Interestingly, while gamblers are still betting that Trump will win the nomination, his odds have dropped from 71.7% probability to just 48.1% today, with Cruz at 24.7%, Kasich at 24.7%, Kasich at 10.1%, Ryan at 6.9%, and Romney at 1%.
Before the primaries started, a New York Times writer forecast which states each of the top three candidates would probably have to win to have a path to the nomination. At that time, Rubio was expected to win Wisconsin, so the state was not considered a “must have” for either Trump or Cruz. Trump needs to win New York on April 15, plus Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Connecticut on the 26th. Cruz has lost so many states he was expected to win that the map no longer works for him.
Despite all the talk of a contested convention, FiveThirtyEight has a panel of experts projecting that Trump will, indeed, get the 1237 delegates he needs by winning Oregon next month—long before the convention.
However, of course, that’s if their experts are right. Although Wisconsin is a “winner-take-most” state, delegates are also awarded to the candidate who wins congressional districts. So while Trump is expected to “lose” the State, their experts are projecting that Trump may win a majority of the delegates—25 out of the available 42.
Trump has won 20 states—New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Alabama, Arkansas, Geogia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Hawaii, Michigan, Mississippi, Illinois, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Arizona
Cruz has won 9 states–Iowa, Alaska, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah.
The current delegate count, according to FiveThirtyEight, is 752 for Trump, which is 94% of being on target, at this stage, toward the nomination. Cruz has 463, which is 52% toward his target. Note that Google gives Trump 737 and Cruz 475. A total of 1237 is needed to win the nomination.
Nominations are chosen by delegate count, but if we get to a contested or “open” convention, it will be hard to justify picking someone who was not supported by the voice of the people. At this point, Trump has 7,811,245 cast for him in all the primaries, moret than two million more than 5,732,220 for Cruz.
THE ENDORSEMENT RACE
FiveThirtyEight has listed the endorsements each candidate has received, and interestingly, it has assigned “points” each endorsement is worth. House members are worth one point, while senators are worth five, and governors are worth ten. By this measure, at this time, Cruz is ahead with 92 points (5 gov, 2 sen, 32 reps), to Trump’s 42 points (3 gov, 1 sen, 7 reps). Cruz lead here is understandable, because while he has been a thorn in the side of the establishment, he’s still part of it. These Washington Insiders are leery of Trump.
We will update this rundown later in the month. If you’d like us to add any other criterion, let us know.