Election Day delivered clear wins for Democrats in the year’s three highest-profile state and local contests. While the left is eager to frame the results as a national momentum shift, the outcomes largely fit historical patterns. In most modern cycles, the party holding the White House often performs poorly in the following off-year elections. This trend is obvious in ’16-’17 and ’20-’21. This year, Democrats flipped Virginia and held New Jersey, results that should have been expected based on historical patterns.
Virginia Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General
Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia governor’s race decisively. Based on the reported statewide results available as of Wednesday morning:
- Spanberger (D): approximately 57 percent
- Earle-Sears (R): approximately 42 percent
- Margin: around 15 points
This was a significantly larger spread than late polling averages suggested. Higher Democratic turnout in Northern Virginia and other metropolitan regions contributed heavily to the result. There were some blowout signals leading into Tuesday, such as a few polls suggesting a 12-point victory. Still, those seemed to fall outside the realm of historical possibility for Democrats in Virginia, even in a good environment. However, the federal government shutdown, which has gone on for over 30 days now, was likely a motivating factor in the Northern Virginia DC suburbs. Many government workers, who lean left to begin with, were likely more motivated to vote for Spanberger in the waning days of the campaign as a rebuke of President Trump.
The scale of Spanberger’s win also carried other Democrats with her:
- Lt. Governor: Ghazala Hashmi (D) defeated Winsome Reid (R) by roughly 3 to 4 points
- Attorney General: Jay Jones (D) defeated Jason Miyares (R) by approximately 1 to 2 points
The attorney general race drew national attention after reports surfaced of disgusting and evil text messages sent by Jay Jones in 2022. The messages contained violent language directed at Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert, wishing to put “two bullets” in his head, and wished that Gilbert’s wife could see their children die in her arms so Jones’ political views would prevail. Despite the controversy, voters still backed Jones and tossed human decency aside, likely helped by Spanberger’s large margin at the top of the ticket. Truly a sad outcome for political discourse and humanity in general.
Jay Jones, confessed child hater and attempted dog kicker, shouldn’t be anywhere near the office of the Attorney General, but deranged Democrats put him there.
New Jersey Governor
In New Jersey, the race ended roughly where polling expected. Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the governor’s race over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Final tallies are still being certified, but current data shows:
- Sherrill (D): approximately 52 percent
- Ciattarelli (R): approximately 47 percent
- Margin: around 5 points
Ciattarelli did not lead a single statewide poll during the campaign. Although Republican early vote turnout was stronger than usual in parts of the state, New Jersey’s electorate continues to lean strongly Democratic in statewide races, especially in a good blue year.
New York City Mayor
In New York City, Zohran Mamdani won the mayoral race. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo surged late in the campaign, but it wasn’t enough in the end.
- Mamdani (D): estimated 54 percent
- Cuomo (I): estimated 46 percent
- Margin: around 8 points
Mamdani’s win represents a continuation of New York City’s movement toward more left-wing and, some would say, insane leadership. Analysts note that the race may shape future statewide politics. Several strategists have suggested that Mamdani’s leadership could become a major talking point during the 2026 gubernatorial contest and serve as a punching bag for President Trump heading into the midterms.
The Broader Context
Democrats will likely frame these results as proof of national momentum heading into the 2026 midterms. Historically, however, Virginia and New Jersey off-year elections do not reliably predict midterm outcomes. The party controlling the White House has often faced difficulty in those races, and turnout in off-year gubernatorial cycles is much lower and very different from a national election year.
In Virginia, the biggest story was the size of Spanberger’s margin, not the outcome. In New Jersey and New York City, the results aligned with polling and the partisan history of both jurisdictions.
The 2026 midterms will feature a much larger and more diverse electorate, meaning the political implications of these off-year results remain limited.