We know what the polls say, so to shake things up, we check in on the betting sites. The easiest is PredictIt, and for full disclosure, this writer has traded a bit there. How do presidential candidates fare? Let’s take a look. . .
Donald Trump is expected to be the GOP nominee, 56 to 16 for DeSantis. Joe Biden is up 69 to 21 for Gavin Newsom. And, at this point, the betting is that a Democrat will win the White House 60-44. By name, it’s Biden 42 to Trump 30. Kamala Harris is seen to stay on the Dem ticket, 70-23.
More specifically, here are the GOP candidates, and their ratings:
- Donald Trump 56
- Ron DeSantis16
- Vivek Ramaswamy 16
- Tim Scott 11
- Glenn Youngkin 6
- Chris Christie 5
- Nikki Haley 3
- Mike Pence 2
- And the rest at 1: Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Ted Cruz, Tucker Carlson, Tom Cotton, Donald Trump Jr, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan, Kristi Noem.
On the Dem side:
- Joe Biden 67
- Gavin Newsom 21
- Robert Kennedy Jr 9
- Kamala Harris 6
- Pete Buttigieg 2
- And all with just 1: Hillary Clinton, J.B. Pitzker, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Sherrod Brown, Stacy Abrams, Amy Klobuchar
There are only ten markets this year. There were over hundreds before. You could bet on whether a Republican would win, yes/no; Democrat, yes/no; Also, by name; then man, yes/no; woman, yes/no, etc. Then, there were individual state and even city races. There would also be betting on whether Trump would debate, and many more sundry topics.
The reduced activity is because they were almost shut down earlier this year. The site was started as an experiment, to see how betting on politics would play out. The government figured after betting on two consecutive presidential elections, the point was made.
There’s also Election Betting Odds, the site set up by John Stossel, noted conspiracy theorist.
Here are their odds there (as of Monday):
Dem Nomination:
- Biden 69.9%
- Newsom 11.4%
- Kennedy 5.7%
- Harris 4.6%
- Hillary 1.5%
- Warren 0.9%
- Buttitiet 0.6%
- Cuomo 0.2%
- Sanders 0.2%
- Ocasio-Cortez 0.1%
- Yang 0.1%
GOP Nomination:
- Trump 69.3%
- DeSantis 9.1%
- Ramaswamy 5.9%
- Scott 3.4%
- Haley 2.4%
- Christie 1.7%
- Crenshaw 1.1%
- Pompeo 0.7%
- Carlson 0.5%
- Pence 0.5%
- Cotton 0.5%
- Cruz 0.3%
- Noem 0.3%
- Rubio 0.2%
- Trump Jr 0.2%
- Elder 0.1%
- Ivanka 0.1%
- Scott 0.1%
Beyond that, the site gives Democrats a 53.2% chance to win the White House, as opposed to 45.5% for the Republicans. Interestingly, a chart shows that Republicans were up to 60% last November, with Democrats as far down as 20%.
Interestingly, the site has a separate section, calculating whether a candidate could win in November, IF they were the nominee:
Democrats
- Harris 56.6%
- Newsom 54.9%
- Biden 51.9%
Republicans
- DeSantis 60.4%
- Trump 37.1%
And maybe the oddest prediction: 18.5% predict that Biden will resign between now and January 2025.
Their calculations are that each of these Democrats could beat Biden, but if he were to get the nomination, Desantis could beat all those Democrats.
There are other betting sites, but they are really sports betting sites that just dabble in politics. Sports Betting Dime does “handycapping.”
In their case, the numbers are reversed, noting how much money you’ll win if they take the White House:
- Joe Biden $150
- Donald Trump $240
- Ron DeSantis $450
Then, there’s a second tier:
- Robt. Kennedy Jr $1800
- Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama $2500
- Nikki Haley and Gavin Newsome $3500
- Pete Buttigieg $4,000
- Gretchen Whitmer and Mike Pence $5,000
- After that, there are the long-shots, like Tucker Carlson and Hillary Clinton
Final note: Personal.
When I hear Vivek’s name, I can’t help having a song run through my head:
“Vi-vek Ramasamy, Ramaswamy
My dear old Swamy,
The folks up north will see me no more. . .”
