According to some reports, the never-Trump wing of the Republican Party had been putting all its eggs into Ron DeSantis’ basket. That is, until recently when internal murmurs and fears started creeping in that maybe the popular Florida governor is having trouble translating his fame to the national stage.
In the background, there are reports that Rupert Murdoch, the headmaster at Fox News, is now quietly changing his allegiance from DeSantis and instead courting Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin to enter the 2024 Republican primary as a Trump alternative.
The timing for Youngkin, in terms of the presidential calendar, would not be kind right now but not impossible. Historically speaking, candidates used to announce a presidential campaign after Labor Day.
Youngkin’s approval rating in Virginia is also flying at a record high, according to The Hill:
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) approval rating reached a record high amid speculation about his political ambitions, according to a poll released Monday.
Fifty-seven percent of Virginia voters said they approved of Youngkin’s job performance, according to a Morning Consult survey. The poll also showed Youngkin’s disapproval rating at 32 percent. The latest polling shows a steady improvement for the Virginia governor, who had a 56 percent approval rating and a 32 percent disapproval rating in April.
In December, Youngkin held a 55 percent approval rating and a 32 percent disapproval rating, while last April, he had a 53 percent approval rating and a 35 percent disapproval rating. In January 2022, Youngkin started out his first term as governor with a 51 percent approval rating and a 35 percent disapproval rating.
A Republican governor hitting 57% approval in a state that went 10 points for Joe Biden in 2020 is not trivial and speaks to the way Youngkin has straddled the line between pushing conservative ideals in the purplish-blue state but with a genteel edge.
Here’s the reality check.
If Ron DeSantis, with all his energetic support from massive GOP donors eager to rid the party of Trump, hasn’t made a dent in two months, how does anyone believe Glenn Youngkin is going to be any different?
According to the Election Central polling average, Youngkin is sitting at just over 3% in national support if he were to launch a presidential campaign.
There are already other Trump alternatives in the race such as Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and even Mike Pence. None of them are nearing the numbers DeSantis is hitting but it’s easy to envision Youngkin not faring any better.
Furthermore, Youngkin is on the hook for the 2023 Virginia state elections this fall where Republicans are eagerly hoping to retake control of the State Senate and expand a majority in the House of Delegates. For Youngkin, Democrats controlling one-half of the state legislature has put a serious damper on his agenda of broader tax reform, deregulation, and restrictions on abortion.
In short, Youngkin is popular and has done some wonderful things as the 74th Governor of Virginia, but he’s only been in office for a year and a half.
From the get-go earlier this spring, Youngkin took a look at the field, still completely dominated by Trump, and took a pass saying he would be focusing his efforts on expanding the Republican foothold in the Old Dominion instead.
While it’s not impossible that Youngkin enters the presidential race this year, the calendar and upcoming state elections make it very unlikely, even with Rupert Murdoch’s blessing.
