Former President Trump is leading Iowa and South Carolina with a commanding 30-point lead in both states according to new poll numbers released by the Fox Business Network.
However, the runners-up in both contests are different depending on the state.
Iowa is the closest thing on the map to a Trump-DeSantis battle right now. At the moment it’s not even a fair fight. In South Carolina, the second-place spot is held by Nikki Haley while Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott battle for third.
First, the Iowa numbers since it is, after all, the first on the primary calendar to render a verdict. The latest Iowa numbers from Fox Business find a somewhat lopsided race in Trump’s favor:
An early read on the race for the Republican nomination in Iowa shows former President Donald Trump the clear frontrunner — and then there is a sharp drop off to the rest of the field.
Trump leads by 30 points in a Fox Business survey of Iowa Republicans, as likely caucus-goers prioritize electability and see him as the one who can win in 2024.
Here are the numbers: 46% of likely GOP caucus-goers back Trump, putting him in a category all his own. The next tier is Ron DeSantis at 16% and Tim Scott at 11%.
From there, it’s Vivek Ramaswamy at 6%, Nikki Haley at 5%, Mike Pence at 4%, and Chris Christie and Doug Burgum at 3% each. Asa Hutchinson and Francis Suarez receive 1% apiece, while Larry Elder and Will Hurd get less than 1% each.
That’s a thirty-point gap DeSantis must make up in about six months. Not an insurmountable task under normal circumstances, but Trump’s support is basically 100% locked in. Unless DeSantis can separate some of those voters, it’s game over in Iowa before it starts.
Next to South Carolina where, again, it’s Trump with a 34-point lead, according to Fox Business:
A new Fox Business poll on the GOP nomination race shows Trump with a 34-point lead in the Palmetto State, as over half believe he’s the candidate most likely to defeat President Biden.
The new poll, released Sunday, finds almost half of South Carolina likely Republican primary voters backing Trump in the 2024 primary contest (48%). That number is slightly larger (51%) among those who say they will definitely vote in the February 24 primary.
Lagging far behind is former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 14%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 13%, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 10%. No other candidate reaches double-digit support.
Is DeSantis really fighting Haley for second place in South Carolina? If that’s the case, the Governor’s campaign is going worse than anyone is really letting on. Then again, if DeSantis pulled an upset in Iowa and was competitive in New Hampshire, Haley would drop in her home state and DeSantis might have a shot. However, regarding that scenario, see the Iowa poll above.
Could these polls be way off? Of course! However, the issue with discounting them is that Trump’s lead isn’t 5 or 10 points, it’s 30 or more depending on the state. These are not margin-of-error polls.
Perhaps the upcoming GOP debate, which Trump is threatening to skip, could move the dials around a bit.
