There are two schools of thought in Trumpworld.
The first says that Trump should enter the primary early and essentially muscle out any competition which would put him as the only and best viable option for the GOP in 2024. This scenario is looking increasingly unlikely.
The other belief is that a rekindling of the same circumstances that let him win the 2016 primary could be just as advantageous in 2024 as it was almost seven years ago. That is, former President Donald Trump would have a harder time surviving a smaller primary field than he would a large, bloated, splintered field of some 20 candidates or more.
As it stands now, it seems to be the latter scenario taking shape as various candidates continue to make moves, both public and private, to indicate they intend to seek the 2024 Republican nomination regardless of Trump’s Nov. 15 announcement:
If one of the chief goals of Donald Trump’s early 2024 presidential campaign announcement was to clear the field, it may have had the opposite effect.
But even if (as Mick Jagger would put it in the former president’s favorite outro song at rallies) you can’t always get what you want, Trump might find that a crowded field is just what he needs.
“I think we’re gonna have 20 people again,” a member of the Republican National Committee told The Daily Beast, requesting anonymity to discuss internal conversations about the 2024 primary.
Their estimate of 20 to 21 candidates came from a recent preliminary meeting on the primary debate schedule.
It’s not just DeSantis, who seems like a lock to run for President in 2024, there are several other GOP names floating around as well, some Trump-friendly and some NeverTrump varieties in the mix:
Then there were former Trump administration officials Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo, who didn’t take on Trump directly but clearly signaled they’re ready for a primary run. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis made his “scoreboard” comments at a press conference last week and also spoke at the RJC event, where he talked about bringing back water from the Sea of Galilee in Israel to baptize his kids with it.
Other GOP figures like New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu have already said they want to avoid a 2016-esque scenario of a prolonged primary with a split field preventing anyone from commanding an outright majority. Sununu told The Washington Post in Vegas he would personally ensure straggling candidates throw in the towel early, while also not ruling out a run of his own.
What’s clear is that the Republican Party is likely not going to exalt a NeverTrump candidate in 2024. Names like Gov. Chris Sununu, former Gov. Larry Hogan, or even Liz Cheney have no chance of uniting the party and garnering more than 2% of primary voter support.
If Trump is going to lose the 2024 primary, it’s going to come from a Trump-lite candidate like Ron DeSantis, or even someone else waiting in the wings.
While it’s clear Trump would prefer to shut out his competition, that storyline simply isn’t going to happen in 2024. Then again, despite the recent midterm losses of Trump-endorsed candidates, the current landscape isn’t that different than 2016:
Another GOP strategist said a crowded field could only benefit Trump, citing many of the same ingredients from 2016.
“The political landscape is very similar to 2016. The establishment donors, ‘Never Trump’ media and political consultants are lining up against him yet again. A crowded field benefits Trump, who is already the clear frontrunner,” the strategist told The Daily Beast, also requesting anonymity to discuss internal deliberations over how to approach the primary.
What’s clear is that despite some waning support, Trump is still the front-runner among the field of potential candidates. If 2024 shapes up to be as bruising as 2016, we’ll be in for a long and entertaining process.
Then again, Democrats might be on a similar trajectory if Biden bows out from a second run and Vice President Kamala Harris also fails to clear the Democratic primary field. We could be in for what is essentially an open-seat election with no incumbent on the ballot. Buckle up.
