So much for appealing to Latino voters by supporting open borders and mass illegal immigration.
New polling from NBC/Telemundo via Politico indicates what every political observer has been watching for a decade has only continued to solidify. More and more Latino voters are voting Republican than they ever have before. The most recent numbers show Democrats have lost 50% of their Latino support from a decade ago to Republicans. Some of the biggest shift has been in border states like Texas and Arizona, but the trend can be seen around the country in other areas like Florida.
This isn’t an overnight change, it’s been happening for years with each election cycle seeing more and more Latino support for Republican candidates and policies:
The Democratic advantage among Latino voters has shrunk by half in the past decade, according to an NBC News/Telemundo poll released Sunday.
Fifty-four percent of Latino voters surveyed said they preferred Democrats to be in charge of Congress, compared with 33 percent who would prefer Republicans. That gap — now 21 points — was a 42 point difference in October 2012, according to NBC News/Telemundo.
The poll results come after Republicans made gains with Latino voters in the 2020 election. Republicans have also put forth a slate of Latino House candidates in the upcoming midterm elections.
The question of party preference has slid fairly steadily in the past decade, with a 26-point gap in October 2020, a 34 point gap in November 2018 and a 38-point gap in October 2016.
This isn’t just an academic exercise to examine voting trends among various groups. In Nevada, the Latino vote could very well swing some crucial races as Latinos threaten to stay home, or vote Republican:
Nevada Democrats have held up their state as a national testing ground for how to win Latino voters in 2024.
But with only 37 days until the midterm elections, there are warning signs: At the doors, on the phones and on the streets, Latinos are threatening to stay home. And that is despite the presence of the first-ever Latina elected to the U.S. Senate, Catherine Cortez Masto, at the top of the ballot.
Organizers in both parties say they see the same phenomenon developing, as do major Latino groups and the powerful Culinary Workers Union: Disgruntled over the economy and unhappy with their post-pandemic job quality, these voters, many of whom Democratic groups identify as once lifelong supporters, could sit this one out. That’s on top of the usual challenges of turning out voters for midterm elections.
“It’s what’s keeping me up at night,” said Melissa Morales, president of Somos PAC, which has spent millions of dollars on ads in English and Spanish for Cortez Masto. “What I’m looking at is: Do Latinos actually turn out to vote this year? If we see high turnout, we win in Nevada.”
Issues like the economy, jobs, and inflation are all “kitchen table” topics that cut across demographic lines. Everyone wants a stable job, a steady paycheck, and to hopefully avoid struggling to buy essentials like food and gas. President Biden’s policies have made that harder for everyone and it’s showing up in House and Senate races across the country.
The U.S. Senate race in Nevada could hinge on Latino votes which may, in turn, decide control of the upper chamber:
A depressed turnout, however, is an ominous prospect for Democrats in particular. It could have implications for the state’s bid to hold the first primary contest in the 2024 presidential cycle.
In the near term, the stakes are high. By some measures, Democrats need to carry two-thirds of the Latino vote if they’re to retain the Senate seat that could determine which party claims the Senate, and a governor’s seat that has implications for how the 2024 presidential race is handled in the state.
The last sentence is key. Democrats have basically thrown away their stronghold on Latino voters by choosing “woke” over household issues that people care about. In that sense, it’s just another example of how the parties have shifted and reoriented in the past decade. The Democratic Party has become the party of the faculty lounger focused on things like abortion and transgender issues while the Republican Party has shifted to a more populist platform.
For the moment, Republican Adam Laxalt is leading slightly in Nevada against incumbent Democrat Senator Catherine Cortez Masto.
When things come down to paychecks and household budgets, peripheral issues fall to the side. Democrats are getting crushed by the economy and inflation with practically every demographic group. The Latino turnout in Nevada will be a “canary in the coalmine” for 2024 and beyond.
