There were four national polls released over the past two days, with three of them giving former vice president Joe Biden the lead, while Sen. Bernie Sanders beat Biden nationally according to the CNN poll for the first time during this primary cycle. Here’s a breakdown of the latest national numbers which continued to show a race being dominated by Biden and Sanders, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren still trying to make up some ground, and Mike Bloomberg carving out a base of support.

Economist/YouGov National Poll
Conducted Jan 19-21 | Source (PDF)

  • Joe Biden – 28%
  • Elizabeth Warren – 21%
  • Bernie Sanders – 18%
  • Pete Buttigieg – 8%
  • Mike Bloomberg – 6%
  • Amy Klobuchar – 4%
  • Andrew Yang – 3%
  • Tulsi Gabbard – 3%
  • Tom Steyer – 2%

The Economist poll is the only one showing Warren in the second-place position. The rest show a Biden/Bernie split for first and second. It’s noteworthy because Warren has been seen as falling since her dust-up in the January debate where she accused Sanders of lying about a conversation in 2018 over whether a woman could win the presidency in 2020.

Monmouth University National Poll
Conducted Jan 16-20 | Source

  • Joe Biden – 30%
  • Bernie Sanders – 23%
  • Elizabeth Warren – 14%
  • Mike Bloomberg – 9%
  • Pete Buttigieg – 6%
  • Amy Klobuchar – 5%
  • Andrew Yang – 3%
  • Tom Steyer – 1%
  • Tulsi Gabbard – 1%

Monmouth’s numbers are more in line with the rest of the recent national polls and they put Bloomberg in fourth-place along with the Morning Consult poll just down the page. There’s no doubt, though, that Bloomberg will do better in national polls as he’s running a national campaign. His name is missing from most polls of early primary and caucus states where he seems to be a non-factor.

CNN/SSRS National Poll
Conducted Jan 16-19 | Source (PDF)

  • Bernie Sanders – 27%
  • Joe Biden – 24%
  • Elizabeth Warren – 14%
  • Pete Buttigieg – 11%
  • Mike Bloomberg – 5%
  • Amy Klobuchar – 4%
  • Andrew Yang – 4%
  • Tom Steyer – 2%

The CNN poll jumps out for a lead by Bernie Sanders, but it still shows Biden within the margin of error. If the race nationally looks more like the CNN version of things, then Sanders has a higher chance of pulling out victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. If, on the other hand, Biden is actually five to ten points ahead nationally, then he’s still got a meaningful chance to sweep the early states.

Morning Consult National Poll
Conducted Jan 15-19 | Source

  • Joe Biden – 29%
  • Bernie Sanders – 24%
  • Elizabeth Warren – 15%
  • Mike Bloomberg – 10%
  • Pete Buttigieg – 8%
  • Andrew Yang – 4%
  • Amy Klobuchar – 3%
  • Tom Steyer – 3%
  • Tulsi Gabbard – 2%

If you look at all of these as part of the RealClearPolitics poll of polls, Biden still comes out ahead on average by around six points nationally. Sanders, for his part, has been making inroads and continues to build on the momentum he found in December. Warren has been on a downward or sideways trend since about the same time period.

From this view of the race, it appears that Bernie is finally solidifying some of the liberal base of the party around him at the expense of Warren. Biden remains fairly unscathed with his trend line hovering near the thirty percent mark, having lost a few points since back in September when his numbers were marginally stronger.

Pete Buttigieg seems to be fighting Bloomberg on the national stage for oxygen in the race since polls showing the former New York Mayor on the rise also seem to show Buttigieg down a few points. Despite some candidates, like Elizabeth Warren, for example, hammering Bloomberg for his decision to delay financial disclosures, his carpet-bombing advertising is creating notoriety for him.

Biden leading three out of four isn’t bad, but it’s also big news for Bernie since this is the first time he has topped Biden nationally. Warren managed to pull that off back in early September but has been in decline ever since. Bernie is peaking at the right time with just days to go before the Iowa caucuses.

2 COMMENTS

  1. Mark my words these polls are about as accurate as the presidential polls were in 2016. Those polls showed Hillary Clinton shellacking Donald J Trump, only it was actually the other way around. The poor Democrats have never recovered since Queen Billary had her head handed to her.?

    This year the overlooked Tulsi Gabbard will be the Dragon slayer in the Democratic primary. Poor old Uncle Joe, decrepit Bernie and Lieawatha will fall to Tulsi. The remaining candidates will be relatively inconsequential.?

    • No, the polls were right in 2016. The only way you can tell if a poll is correct is at the election. At the election in 2016, the polls were perfectly within the margin of error. The problem was not with the polls, it was with the talking heads, who didn’t see the movement in the polls. Also, the late polls didn’t include reaction to Comey’s last-minute comments. Even with all that, the polls were almost identical to the final results.

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