This page is our effort to give you a view of both what to expect from Wisconsin primary, and where we stand in the paths to victory for the top two candidates in both parties. That includes the polls, but also the betting odds, which give a gambler’s probability for the candidates.

THE DEMOCRATIC RACE

POLLS
The most recent poll puts Hillary up by point, but last month, Bernie was 8% up, so RCP averages several polls and now gives Bernie the edge by 2.6%.

BETTING ODDS
Gamblers are more “bullish” on Bernie in Wisconsin, betting 84.7% that he’ll win the state. However, they’re betting Hillary will get the nomination by 84.4%, but that’s down from 91.8% last month.

STATES WON
Hillary has 18 states–Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona
Bernie has won 14 states–New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Washington, and Hawaii.

DELEGATE COUNT
The delegate race on the Dem side is more complicated. While Hillary is ahead in won delegates, 1243 to 980, she can add 469 “superdelegates” whom are not elected, compared to only 31 for Bernie. That gives Hillary a lead of 1712 to 1011, with 2382 needed to win.

POPULAR VOTE
The total primary popular vote also goes to Hillary, 8,924, 821 to 6,397.980. The gap is even greater than the above gap between Trump and Cruz. And, of course, it makes it hard for Bernie to claim that “the people” are behind him.

THE ENDORSEMENT RACE
In the point system described in the GOP section above, Hillary has 489 points, to 7 for Bernie.


THE REPUBLICAN RACE

POLLS
The polls have consistently shown Cruz ahead of Trump, by as much as 10% in Wisconsin, but Real Clear Politics averages recent polls, and puts Cruz ahead 39.2%, with 34.5% for Trump, and 20% for Kasich. Net lead is 4.7% for Cruz. Nationally, Trump is ahead 40.4% to 32.8% for Cruz, and 20.6% for Kasich, so Trump is favored by 7.6%. Of course, the national numbers hardly matter, since delegates are won state-by-state. Also, of course, the polls include Kasich, whose supporters could go either way.

BETTING ODDS
Election Betting Odds say gamblers think Wisconsin is a done deal. They give Cruz an 82% probability of winning the state. Interestingly, while gamblers are still betting that Trump will win the nomination, his odds have dropped from 71.7% probability to just 48.1% today, with Cruz at 24.7%, Kasich at 24.7%, Kasich at 10.1%, Ryan at 6.9%, and Romney at 1%.

THE MAP
Before the primaries started, a New York Times writer forecast which states each of the top three candidates would probably have to win to have a path to the nomination. At that time, Rubio was expected to win Wisconsin, so the state was not considered a “must have” for either Trump or Cruz. Trump needs to win New York on April 15, plus Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Connecticut on the 26th. Cruz has lost so many states he was expected to win that the map no longer works for him.

DELEGATE FORECAST
Despite all the talk of a contested convention, FiveThirtyEight has a panel of experts projecting that Trump will, indeed, get the 1237 delegates he needs by winning Oregon next month—long before the convention.

However, of course, that’s if their experts are right. Although Wisconsin is a “winner-take-most” state, delegates are also awarded to the candidate who wins congressional districts. So while Trump is expected to “lose” the State, their experts are projecting that Trump may win a majority of the delegates—25 out of the available 42.

STATES WON
Trump has won 20 states—New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Alabama, Arkansas, Geogia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Hawaii, Michigan, Mississippi, Illinois, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Arizona
Cruz has won 9 states–Iowa, Alaska, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah.

DELEGATE COUNT
The current delegate count, according to FiveThirtyEight, is 752 for Trump, which is 94% of being on target, at this stage, toward the nomination. Cruz has 463, which is 52% toward his target. Note that Google gives Trump 737 and Cruz 475. A total of 1237 is needed to win the nomination.

POPULAR VOTE
Nominations are chosen by delegate count, but if we get to a contested or “open” convention, it will be hard to justify picking someone who was not supported by the voice of the people. At this point, Trump has 7,811,245 cast for him in all the primaries, moret than two million more than 5,732,220 for Cruz.

THE ENDORSEMENT RACE
FiveThirtyEight has listed the endorsements each candidate has received, and interestingly, it has assigned “points” each endorsement is worth. House members are worth one point, while senators are worth five, and governors are worth ten. By this measure, at this time, Cruz is ahead with 92 points (5 gov, 2 sen, 32 reps), to Trump’s 42 points (3 gov, 1 sen, 7 reps). Cruz lead here is understandable, because while he has been a thorn in the side of the establishment, he’s still part of it. These Washington Insiders are leery of Trump.

We will update this rundown later in the month. If you’d like us to add any other criterion, let us know.

29 COMMENTS

  1. why don’t you tell the truth Trump is leading 42 to 32 currently and will take wisconsin and on to the convention with the required amt to win nomination

    • Just reporting, truthfully, what RCP says.

      You’re referring to the American Research Group poll. RCP included it with the other polls to come up with an average.

  2. Cruz is actually behind by a lot more than Sanders if you look at the percentages of pledged delegates.

  3. I’m a Trump supporter, I’m not racist, I love people, I look for the best in people, hate is nothing more than foolishness and will cause us to be divided

    • Lol when you comment to defend yourself from an attack that no one did it’s a little suspicious. .. just a little.

      • This guy hahaha no I see all these videos about how bad trump supporters are and how violent they are it is only for some people. That’s like the police you have the very bad police that ruin it for the others who are good people. So it is wrong to say all trump supporters are bad.

        • Yeah, but who insulted you for supporting Trump? O_o

          From my experience, most Trump supporters aren’t dumb, just angry, and misinformed.

          • Everyone, I’m in a civil rights class at my college and I’m the only trump supporter. Everyone seems like they have a problem with that. A Guy did. Ha.
            I challenge you to a debate. Ha
            You seem like your the guy on this app that tries to start crap.

            • Since when did rasing questions become “starting crap”? If you didn’t want your view challenged, you should have stayed home. But for what it’s worth, I accept your odd request to debate lol.

              But I should warn you, you’re getting into devil’s advocate territory. Trump is not the sort to witstand scrutiny. But hey, maybe you’ll change my mind. 😉

            • You totally went off topic. You got defensive because I challenged you and what you do on this app. Haha are you even old enough to vote?

            • I’m truly speechless. There’s a level of intelligencquestioned to lack to NOT SEE the blatent irony in your comment.

              The entire purpose of your first comment was to defend yourself from Trump supporter stereotypes that nobody threw at you. Which, in case you missed it, HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS ARTICLE AT ALL!!

              Then you turn around and claim I’M off topic when I qestioned your insult of me being a troll. Yet I’M the insecure defensive one… And what exactly “do I do on this app”? Disagree with you? Because that’s about all I’ve done here, then you had an emotional breakdown.

              I’m flagging you for the illogical troll you are. Stick to the race, not your insecurities.

            • Ha flag me. But your changing the topic, what are you a communist ha. All your doing on this app is starting crap. Your probably not even old enough to vote

            • Keep telling yourself I’m not a threat. How did that work out for Hillary? I’m not going anywhere, and neither is the truth.

              If you run around claiming Trump is the business man to fix America, but can’t point to more successes than failures then you DESERVE to be made fun of.

            • The fact that u r the only one in ur civics class that is a trump supporter, should speak volumes……u claim ur a nice guy, not a racist, and that u love people, yet you are supporting a man who only loves himself, not this country, not it’s people, just it’s currency and his own self image, all the while insulting every group of people along the way, yeah YOU really know how to look for the good in people. This man is straight up lying to everyone, and is pandering off of ignorant fears to better himself…you my friend as re an imbesile…..and after reading the this thread, between u and A Guy…..you have proven yourself to be a troglodite, and should probably rethink ur life

    • We have a newer page that says New York will be the test. If he can win NY, or at least put in a good showing, he may have a chance, but it’s really uphill.

    • Glad you care. But the point of this page was to help you understand where we stood.

      There was only one primary since then, and there was no question as to who would win. Besides New York, there was a Colorado Republican convention without popular vote, and a split decision caucus in an “empty” state with only a handful of Democrats.

      I was just wondering if it would make sense to upgrade ahead of the apparent blow-out on Tuesday.

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