As we noted before, there have not been enough polls taken to give us a clear idea of how candidates will do in some of the individual states. The national polls don’t help at all. So we are also watching the betting table.
Today, we have Republican primaries in Florida (99 delegates), North Carolina (72), Illinois (69), Ohio (66), and Missouri (52). That’s 358 delegates in one day. Considering that Trump leads Cruz 460 to 370, that’s a big day.
RealClearPolitics gives a rundown of recent polls:
FLORIDA—In five polls, Trump is ahead by an average of 18.3%
NORTH CAROLINA—In three polls, Trump is ahead by an average of 12.3%
ILLINOIS—In two polls, Trump is ahead by an average of 6.5%
OHIO—In six polls, Kasich is ahead by an average of 3.4%
MISSOURI—In one poll, Trump is ahead by 7%
Meanwhile, let’s look at the “odds.” This is not percentage of vote, but likelihood of winning, according to Election Betting Odds:
FLORIDA—Trump to win 90.6%
NORTH CAROLINA—Trump to win 84.6%
ILLINOIS—Trump to win 67.9%
OHIO—Kasich to win 70.9%
MISSOURI—Cruz to win 50.2% (Trump 49.7%)
Want to know the risk/reward, instead? I checked PaddyPower, which is primarily a sports betting site.
If you want to bet on the Florida race,
TRUMP—risk $99, and if he wins Florida, you’ll win $3
RUBIO—risk $1, and if he wins, you’ll win $10
CRUZ—risk $1, and if he wins, you’ll win $25
KASICH—risk $1, and if he wins, you’ll win $50
That sort of puts things into perspective, doesn’t it?
What about today’s odds on the nomination?
TRUMP—risk $3, and if Trump wins the nomination, you win $1
CRUZ—risk $1 to win $5
KASICH—risk $1 to win $10
RUBIO—risk $1 to win $22
RYAN—risk $1 to win $33
ROMNEY—risk $1 to win $40
While all the attention is on Florida and Ohio, FiveThirtyEight says you should keep your eye on the rest:
The Florida winner will claim 99 delegates, and the Ohio winner will claim 66 — no ifs, ands or buts. However, Illinois and Missouri could functionally become winner-take-all too. Both states award their delegates on a congressional-district level. So if Trump (or someone else) sweeps their congressional districts, that candidate will win all the delegates. Together, Missouri and Illinois will award 121 delegates — which would go a long way in helping Trump stay “on track” for the nomination even if he loses either Florida or Ohio. . .
Trump currently holds 462 delegates, 43 percent of the 1,065 delegates that have been at stake so far. But up until now, just 5 percent of all GOP delegates (the 50 Trump won in South Carolina) have been awarded on a winner-take-all basis. From March 15 forward, a whopping 64 percent of delegates will be awarded on a winner-take-all basis (39 percent based on statewide winners plus 25 percent based on district-level winners). This means continued Trump pluralities would be more than sufficient to earn him a majority of the 2,472 delegates by June.
OK, we admit, we’re most interested in the excitement on the GOP side. But let’s see where the Democratic races stand:
POLLS (via RealClearPoliticso)
FLORIDA—In six polls, Hillary is ahead by 28.9%
NORTH CAROLINA—In three polls, Hillary is ahead by an average of 24%
ILLINOIS—In three polls, Hillary is ahead by an average of 62.3%
OHIO—In five polls, Hillary is ahead by an average of 8%
MISSOURI—In one poll, Hillary is ahead by 7%–but in another, Bernie is ahead by 1%
BETTING ODDS (via ElectionBettingOdds)
FLORIDA—Hillary to win 93.4%
NORTH CAROLINA—Hillary to win 90.4%
ILLINOIS—Hillary to win 53.1.9%
OHIO—Hillary to win 62.3%
MISSOURI—Bernie to win 65.9%
RISK/REWARD (via PaddyPower)
If you want to bet on the Ohio race,
HILLARY—risk $7, and if She wins OHIO, you’ll win $4
BERNIE—risk $4, and if he wins, you’ll win $5
NOMINATION ODDS
What about today’s odds of winning the Democratic nomination?
HILLARY—risk $14, and if she wins the nomination, you win $1
BERNIE—risk $2 to win $13
BIDEN—risk $1 to win $19
Sorry, Bernie fans, but it looks like Hillary has the nomination—unless they find something really bizarre in her “damned” emails.