As we noted before, there have not been enough polls taken to give us a clear idea of how candidates will do in some of the individual states. The national polls don’t help at all. So we are also watching the betting table.

Today, we have Republican primaries in Florida (99 delegates), North Carolina (72), Illinois (69), Ohio (66), and Missouri (52). That’s 358 delegates in one day. Considering that Trump leads Cruz 460 to 370, that’s a big day.

RealClearPolitics gives a rundown of recent polls:

FLORIDA—In five polls, Trump is ahead by an average of 18.3%
NORTH CAROLINA—In three polls, Trump is ahead by an average of 12.3%
ILLINOIS—In two polls, Trump is ahead by an average of 6.5%
OHIO—In six polls, Kasich is ahead by an average of 3.4%
MISSOURI—In one poll, Trump is ahead by 7%

Meanwhile, let’s look at the “odds.” This is not percentage of vote, but likelihood of winning, according to Election Betting Odds:

FLORIDA—Trump to win 90.6%
NORTH CAROLINA—Trump to win 84.6%
ILLINOIS—Trump to win 67.9%
OHIO—Kasich to win 70.9%
MISSOURI—Cruz to win 50.2% (Trump 49.7%)

Want to know the risk/reward, instead? I checked PaddyPower, which is primarily a sports betting site.

If you want to bet on the Florida race,
TRUMP—risk $99, and if he wins Florida, you’ll win $3
RUBIO—risk $1, and if he wins, you’ll win $10
CRUZ—risk $1, and if he wins, you’ll win $25
KASICH—risk $1, and if he wins, you’ll win $50

That sort of puts things into perspective, doesn’t it?

What about today’s odds on the nomination?
TRUMP—risk $3, and if Trump wins the nomination, you win $1
CRUZ—risk $1 to win $5
KASICH—risk $1 to win $10
RUBIO—risk $1 to win $22
RYAN—risk $1 to win $33
ROMNEY—risk $1 to win $40

While all the attention is on Florida and Ohio, FiveThirtyEight says you should keep your eye on the rest:

The Florida winner will claim 99 delegates, and the Ohio winner will claim 66 — no ifs, ands or buts. However, Illinois and Missouri could functionally become winner-take-all too. Both states award their delegates on a congressional-district level. So if Trump (or someone else) sweeps their congressional districts, that candidate will win all the delegates. Together, Missouri and Illinois will award 121 delegates — which would go a long way in helping Trump stay “on track” for the nomination even if he loses either Florida or Ohio. . .

Trump currently holds 462 delegates, 43 percent of the 1,065 delegates that have been at stake so far. But up until now, just 5 percent of all GOP delegates (the 50 Trump won in South Carolina) have been awarded on a winner-take-all basis. From March 15 forward, a whopping 64 percent of delegates will be awarded on a winner-take-all basis (39 percent based on statewide winners plus 25 percent based on district-level winners). This means continued Trump pluralities would be more than sufficient to earn him a majority of the 2,472 delegates by June.

OK, we admit, we’re most interested in the excitement on the GOP side. But let’s see where the Democratic races stand:

POLLS (via RealClearPoliticso)
FLORIDA—In six polls, Hillary is ahead by 28.9%
NORTH CAROLINA—In three polls, Hillary is ahead by an average of 24%
ILLINOIS—In three polls, Hillary is ahead by an average of 62.3%
OHIO—In five polls, Hillary is ahead by an average of 8%
MISSOURI—In one poll, Hillary is ahead by 7%–but in another, Bernie is ahead by 1%

BETTING ODDS (via ElectionBettingOdds)
FLORIDA—Hillary to win 93.4%
NORTH CAROLINA—Hillary to win 90.4%
ILLINOIS—Hillary to win 53.1.9%
OHIO—Hillary to win 62.3%
MISSOURI—Bernie to win 65.9%

RISK/REWARD (via PaddyPower)
If you want to bet on the Ohio race,
HILLARY—risk $7, and if She wins OHIO, you’ll win $4
BERNIE—risk $4, and if he wins, you’ll win $5

NOMINATION ODDS
What about today’s odds of winning the Democratic nomination?
HILLARY—risk $14, and if she wins the nomination, you win $1
BERNIE—risk $2 to win $13
BIDEN—risk $1 to win $19

Sorry, Bernie fans, but it looks like Hillary has the nomination—unless they find something really bizarre in her “damned” emails.

22 COMMENTS

  1. That’s what you’re basing your prediction for the Democratic nomination on? Some gambling addict’s best guess and the same polls that are hardly ever right?

    I guess people were right, this app is kinda biased.

    • Well, we consider all the information that’s available. On another page, we did note that Bernie upset Hillary in Michigan, and he might have the same effect in neighboring Ohio.

      I feel your pain, but the system is stacked against Bernie. Hillary has 467 Superdelegates to Bernie’s 26. And as we saw in 2008, only a few moved over to Obama, even when he started kicking her butt, excuse the expression.

      Also, the Dems don’t have “winner-take-all” states, so even when Bernie wins, it’s still pushing Hillary toward the nomination.

      Look at Bernie’s “big success” in Michigan. Bernie got 67 delegates–BUT Hillary got 60. At that rate, Bernie would have to have to win 63 states, just to catch up with her lead in the Superdelegates.

      Sorry.

      • Yeah, but Obama did win in the end.

        If Bernie wins by pledged delegates but his nomination is basically stolen from him by the superdelegates, which are a nondemocratic institution in themselves anyway, there will be an uproar and I bet that you will see the Democratic Party in shambles over this. Just like when Trump would get his nomination stolen by some shady move, becuase the Republican establishment is against him.

        So all he has to do is catch up in terms of regular delegates and no matter if he gets the nomination in that case or not, something drastic will happen and the Democratic establishment won’t like it.

        • True, but Bernie is not performing at the same level Obama was in 2008. Hillary is over-performing where she was in 2008. Time is on her side, that’s the real battle Bernie is fighting.

          As mentioned, in Michigan, Bernie won, but Hillary still got 60 delegates to his 67. She’s likely far enough ahead in pledged delegates that unless Bernie starts winning by upwards of 70% in every primary, he can’t catch her in delegates or deny her gathering enough delegates even if he wins several states. Proportional delegate allocation ensures she’ll keep accumulating delegates even if she loses.

          Most everyone agrees that the superdelegates are absurd – but they’ve never actually changed the outcome, and I don’t suspect that will happen in 2016 either. As you said, there would be massive outrage from grassroots of either party if the party “elites” stole the nomination.

          There’s no bias on this, delegates all come down to the math – and right now the math favors Hillary despite a valiant effort being put forth by Bernie.

          • I’m not THAT deep into the numbers (since I’m not even from America myself) but isn’t there just like a 150 to 200 delegate discrepancy between Bernie and Hillary at the moment? I mean that’s not nothing, but it doesn’t seem to be THAT hard to overcome either, especially given that the polls of the upcoming states favour him greatly.

            But I agree, that despite his rather fruitful efforts to spread the message of a new wave of liberalism in America. his actual fight for the nomination doesn’t seem to get any easier.

            • Nice to hear from you.

              Well, the pledged delegate count is 768 for Hillary and 554 for Bernie. That’s 214, or 40% of his total.

              But when you add Superdelegates, Hillary has 1,235 of the 2,383 needed–more than halfway there. Before tonight.

              Superdelegates were added after the Democratic Party candidate, George McGovern, was humiliated by Nixon in 1972. They didn’t want to nominate another ideologue, who would be popular with the base, but out of touch with the general public.

              And finally, you’re right. Bernie has changed the dialogue on the Dem side.

            • Interesting, thanks for the small history lesson. Always eager to learn something new about American politics. Following the rise of Bernie’s ideals kinda gives a little hope, since here in Germany a new right wing movement is befalling us and a scary future seems to lie ahead. -.-

            • Indeed.
              And Historically the Super Delegates have never actually changed the outcome of the race, and they most likely wont in this race.

            • Well it would not be if the DNC had winner take all states (Which are also BS)
              But they don’t so even if Bernie winners ever state from now on.. If he’s only winning by a percent or so, he will still only get 2 delegates more then Clinton per state. And would still lose. It’s actually much closer a popular vote system then most Democrats would like to admit (Because they can’t complain about it when there guy/girl loses)

          • “There no bias”

            There are 50 states if I am correct right? It’s a little too early to be calling the race..

            • Exactly, especially when Sanders clearly has momentum which will lead to more upsets, while Hillary is losing speed. This race is dynamic, and the change is all favoring Sanders.

            • What race have you been watching?

              I’m fine with both candidates, but I hate to break this to you. The gap between the two has gotten bigger in the last week…

              I am curious to see how Bernie will perform on the west coast.
              But with the prepositional system. Bernie is going to have to start winning allot of states, and winning with more then 1-3% more of the vote very soon. Winning 2 more delegates in each state more then Clinton is not going to win at this point. (With or without super delegates)

              And sanders is not going to do well in much of the Midwest.
              Really his ONLY hope is a huge Win on the west coast. We are talking shut out.

            • It’s easy to ask me which race I’ve been watching AFTER last night’s results. But over the last 10 months or so, Sanders has gone from having almost no chance at all, to having some chance, which was admittedly better before last night. It will be very tough for him now.

            • I don’t think anyone (With any sense) Is calling the race yet…

              Bernie is most likely going to lose, but no one is calling it yet.

            • Well, I wouldn’t say there’s not “anyone” calling the race.

              The betting odds favor Hillary– with a 93% chance of winning the nomination.

              Bernie is only about twice as likely to win as Joe Biden. . .

        • Who cares if there’s an uproar. Hillary will beat Sanders. She already has 2.6 million more votes than Bernie. Sounds like the country wants Hillary.

      • Umm.. No…

        The Vast Majority of Super Delegates moved from Clinton to Obama in 2008.
        I would say your cherry picking, but your actually just flat out wrong.

        the Super delegates almost always go with the assumed winner at first and then switch over when they get a good feel of who is actually doing well. Which would still be Clinton at this point.

        • Well, it’s more than a “good feeling.”

          Obama was strategic. He surprised Hillary at every turn. By February, it was obvious that the man had a plan.

          Bernie really needed Ohio, but regardless, without winner-take-all, he would have to win BIG in a lot of states to impress any Superdelegates.

    • Prediction markets are a lot more accurate than polls. Polls only describe a day in time, not what’s going to happen.

  2. Bernie needs to sit in a rocking chair and call it a day. He will not win the nomination. Hillary has that wrapped up. Bernie is not educated enough in politics and should step down. The same goes for the two republicans campaigning against Trump. And both of them don’t look presidential. Trump needs to tone his speech down. He is too loud. Bernie waves his arms too much. Bernie wants to be president so bad he can taste it.

  3. Chris: Where did you get your information from. It appears you hope Bernie wins several states but that will not happen. He will lose states. You need to wake up to the fact that Bernie will never be president. And he is desperate for that nomination that he won’t get. .

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