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As we noted in a previous page, we hear bits and pieces of the campaign in the media, but we don’t have a real sense of where we stand, and where we’re headed. So we’re going to try to pull together where we are in previous forecasts, beginning with the GOP. Note, we are excluding Kasich, since he has no path to victory before the convention.

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Republican Race

THE MAP
Before the primaries started, a New York Times writer forecast which states each of the top three candidates would probably have to win to have a path to the nomination. On March 22, neither Trump nor Cruz were projected to win those states. (Note that the state map was drawn when we still had a dozen candidates.) Trump took the big one, Arizona; Cruz took Utah. Wisconsin is up next, April 5. Neither candidate was projected to win it. What that means is, neither candidate needed these states to win.

DELEGATE FORECAST
FiveThirtyEight had a panel of experts theorize how Donald Trump would do in the remainder of the campaign, and what he would need to do to win. On March 22, he needed to win all of Arizona’s delegates, which he did; but he was projected to win four delegates from Utah, which he didn’t. So according to the projections, Trump is four delegates behind his goal. Wisconsin is next, with 42 winner-take-all delegates. Trump and Cruz appear basically tied in this state according to recent polling (see below under Polls heading). He’ll need this victory to get back on track if he is to reach 1,237 delegates before the nomination. Look for Cruz to make a huge effort in Wisconsin to knock Trump off pace.

STATES WON
Trump has won 19 states–New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Hawaii, Michigan, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Arizona. Cruz has won 7 states–Iowa, Alaska, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Maine, Idaho, and Utah.

DELEGATE COUNT
The current delegate count, according to Google, is 739 for Trump, 465 for Cruz. A total of 1237 is needed to win the nomination.

POLLS
The most recent poll of Wisconsin shows Cruz with a 1% lead in Wisconsin, but another poll, by another service, just a few weeks before, showed Trump with a 10% lead. Real Clear Politics averages the two, putting Trump ahead by 5%.

As for national polls,Trump is ahead by 12.3%–43.0 to 30.3.

BETTING ODDS
It’s too early to have a number for Wisconsin, but Election Betting Odds currently give Trump the edge in probability to win the nomination—71.7% to 13.3% for Cruz.

POPULAR VOTE
We haven’t discussed this before, but it will be increasingly important as we head to the convention. There’s more and more talk of a “brokered,” “contested,” or “open” convention. Currently, Trump has 7,811,245 cast for him in all the primaries, compared to 5,732,220 for Cruz, according to RealClearPolitics. It will be difficult to justify withholding the nomination from someone who has received millions of votes more than the others.

THE ENDORSEMENT RACE
This is also new to our site. FiveThirtyEight has listed the endorsements each candidate has received, and interestingly, it has assigned “points” each endorsement is worth. House members are worth one point, while senators are worth five, and governors are worth ten. By this measure, at this time, Cruz is ahead with 81 points (4 gov, 2 sen, 31 reps), to Trump’s 41 points (3 gov, 1 sen, 6 reps). Cruz lead here is understandable, because while he has been a thorn in the side of the establishment, he’s still part of it. These Washington Insiders are leery of Trump.

Democratic Race

ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, we don’t have a map or delegate count to work with, but we do have several of the topics:

STATES WON
Hillary has 18 states–Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona
Bernie has won 11 states–New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, Idaho, and Utah.

DELEGATE COUNT
The delegate race on the Dem side is more complicated. While Hillary is ahead in won delegates, 1186 to 899, she can add 467 “superdelegates” whom are not elected, compared to only 26 for Bernie. That gives Hillary a lead of 1690 to 946, with 2382 needed to win.

POLLS
The most recent poll in Wisconsin puts Hillary up by 6 points, but last month, Bernie was 1% up, so RCP gives Hillary the edge by 2.5%.

As for national polls, Hillary is ahead by 9%–51.5 to 42.5.

BETTING ODDS
The probability of Hillary getting the nomination, according to gamblers is currently 91.8%, to Bernie’s 6.6%.

POPULAR VOTE
The total primary popular vote also goes to Hillary, 8,907,55 to 6,355,291. The gap is even larger than the above gap between Trump and Cruz. And, of course, it makes it hard for Bernie to claim that “the people” are behind him.

THE ENDORSEMENT RACE
In the point system described in the GOP section above, Hillary has 489 points, to 6 for Bernie.

We will update this rundown after Wisconsin. If you’d like us to add any other criterion, let us know.

19 COMMENTS

  1. I just want to know how does Bernie have <10% chance to win, when he rallies so much more support than Clinton? He raised more money W/O big name contributions, pulls in a Hell of a larger crowd in all rallies, and is the only candidate not caught in a profound amount of lies (which now some MSM sources are saying, "$Hillary is the "most honest" candidate; okay and I'm the King of Tehran)? The simple answer is: the MSM wants to convinve everyone that the Sanders campaign is "dead" to discourage people from backing him; I mean who wants to vote for a "dead" campaign? Well, if the MSM would actually give him a fair chance, and don't even argue that they don't, then maybe he would have even more support. Don't lie; the last time you turned on the news name the most common candidate discussed, either Trump or Clinton. You will only find true Bernie news, good and bad with real facts, on social media sites, such as Facebook (Bernie Sanders' Dank Meme Stash, check it out!) The MSM even gives Kasich more of a chance, when results are scaled, to win the nomination than Sanders! He has ~3% chance to earn the nomination, when he needs ~115% of the remaining GOP delegates, whereas Sanders has less than a 10% chance when he needs ~1400 delegates of the ~2400 delegates left. Seems a little bit screwed up right? This fight is not over. The system, the DNC, the MSM, and everything that wants to fight our campaign can shove it far and hard. #stillsanders #bernthemedia #feelthebern

    • Zane: You’re misunderstanding the concept. When we say “betting odds,” it’s not our guess. We’re just stating the fact of what actual gamblers are currently willing to risk. Totally objective dollars and cents. Also, it should be noted that the odds change quickly and dramatically at any time.

      I wouldn’t bet my money on the current odds on either side. Does Trump really have a 71% to 13% probability of beating Cruz? Cruz has the vast majority of the Republican Establishment now, as well as huge superpac funding. In addition, he has shown that when it comes to self-interest, he is very. . .resourceful.

      If I were a betting man, I’d probably bet that Trump has only slightly better than a 50-50 chance to get the nomination, and I’d bet 65-35 on the Dem side, for Hillary. Sorry.

    • Zane, it’s because Hillary is in good with the people pulling the strings, their vote is stronger than the people’s vote

    • Hillary is the machine candidate.

      Governors, congresspeople, mayors, etc. have been bullied into endorsing her. She has virtually unlimited money.

      Plus… she’s a woman, and Bernie is a Jewish man from Brooklyn. People are ignorant. Women + minorities (particularly in the South) are voting for her aggressively… nevermind that Bernie would be better for 90+% of that demographic.

      • Mmm I’m so not a fan of those recovering from cases of altitude sickness—get off your high horse and refrain from the use of blanket statements referring to entire demographics as ‘ignorant’ merely bc their opinions differ from your own. #CheckYourPrivilege

        • Likewise, if Bernie gets dem nom, I’m casting my ballot for Trump.

          Lol… how much is Hillary’s campaign paying you to troll this website??

          I don’t even know how to evaluate Hillary, because her only conviction **ever** is anything politically advantageous. She even moved her home state to further this unabashed political goal.

          How about… #CheckYourBias…??

        • Way to copy & paste your candidate’s positions.

          I don’t even know how to evaluate Hillary. Her only conviction seems to be “#personal advancement”.

          Nice use of cliches though. #CheckYourTrolling?

    • Don’t waste your breath, the guy keeps deleting my comments because he doesn’t like people challenging his biased predictions.

  2. I’m already regretting getting lured in by your trollish tendencies, but hell, here goes my (not so) quick history/reality lesson: what Election Central fails to mention is Bernie has really only done well [I.e. wins along the same enormous margins of victory that Hillary has won over him in the south (heck let’s go ahead and throw Ohio on in there as well)] in highly unrepresentative, verging on undemocratic CAUCUS states as opposed to primary states. Now moving beyond this FACT as one of many reason why #BS has less than a 10% chance of the Dem nomination, I’ll highlight the demographic problem Bernie faces–his early wins in NH and tie in IA were done so on the backs of white male voters (ages 18-29 to be specific)–also with greater than avg. support among independents in open primaries (but I’ll hold off on that rant for another day). Anyhow, it’s been noted a Dem candidate has a snowball’s chance in hell of sitting in the oval come November without the overwhelming support of minority voters. And, as it’s become increasingly clear as #BS moves to more representative (in other words less white) parts of the United States, he runs into a wall, as the minorities (such as myself) that he so desperately needs. Blacks, Hispanics, LGBT community, women and other targeted minorities simply aren’t buying what Bernie is peddling–that is to say a Chevy full of empty campaign promises and zero substantive plans on how to actually achieve said initiatives. To be specific, sweeping statements about the evils of Wall Street and Bernie’s crusade against income inequality are noble enough, albeit utter nonsense. And Bernie should know–he’s been singing the same tired tune throughout his 30+ years as a career politician, during which he achieved a lot in the name of wealth redistribution. Oh, wait nope. Bernie didn’t even manage that–out of the THREE bills Bernie sponsored during his time in the Senate, TWO renamed post-offices. But, hey, that’s more than most congressmen accomplish during their tenure, so I do give him that. Moving on to next unpalatable aspect of Bernie as prospective Dem standard bearer–his self-avowed democratic-socialism. Just bc you stick the word, ‘democratic’ in front of the word, ‘socialism’ doesn’t make it suck any less when you shove it down Americans’ throats–just ask Cuba (a country whose ‘revolution’ Bernie pointed to as the prime example of what he was trying to achieve with his revolution of values here). But you know what, that okay, a new YouGov poll says a larger share of my generation (I’m 24) are actually alright with socialism, given that Bernie’s sparse examples of functioning socialism are those in Scandinavian countries. Good thing the United States’ population count, it’s demographics and its history are so alike those in Denmark, Norway, Sweden. Oh, they’re not AT ALL you say? Hmm. You’re right–Relatedly, some argue that American individualism is, at its core, incompatible with Scandinavian egalitarianism. Bernie’s “Nordic” model is based on countries that have relatively small, close-knit and culturally-homogenous populations. Then there’s geography–Norway has actually subsidized support of its immense welfare state for years by siphoning off of it nearby supply of natural resources. But that, of course, wasn’t enough. Oh, yeah, now it’s time to mention the thing Americans love most–raising taxes (we love it so much, we actually fought a revolution to earn our independence from Britain in an effort to cease being taxed without our consent). Yum, taxes. We hated having them forced down our throat then, we sure as hell hate having the forced down our throat today. Oh, and by the way, Denmark’s top marginal tax rate is 57% in Sweden and 60% in Denmark! Aw and for my generation of college kids saying, “yeah, so? Wall Street’s gonna pay our taxes.” Um, no, that’s not the way Bernie hopes it’ll eventually be in America. Bernie wants to gauge all of us–the middle class will be hit particularly hard by Bernie’s proposed high levels of taxation. Talk about zapping my drive and ambition… Look again to Bernie’s model, to Scandinavia-style socialism: In these countries, not only are taxes high for top earners, but taxes are flat all the way down the income ladder, meaning citizens contribute at similarly exorbitant rates. I just don’t see it happening, given how deathly allergic Americans across the aisle are to raising taxes or even to modernizing our tax code. Moving on to those who those Americans who left the room at the mention of the word, ‘socialism.’
    Oh yes, then there are those Americans–a larger percentage than you think–who view socialism as a stepping stone on the road to communism. For those older Americans who lived through the terror of the Cold War, ‘socialism’ has become interchangeable with the planned economies of Stalin’s Soviet Union, Mao’s China in the philosophy’s promotion of totalitarianism and ultimate restriction of freedom and liberty. Again, I simply believe it’s a flawed concept, and we’re already dealing with our own flawed concept of capitalism at the moment. Yet regardless of capitalism’s various shortcomings, it is the the “self-made-[wo]man” sort of stuff this country was built upon and that makes it possible for the US to be a global leader in innovation/entrepreneurship. What’s more, Bernie didn’t even enter the race to become President–he as much as said so. Bernie came right out and said he’s only running as a democrat for the “media exposure,” so I think it’s a tad un-American (or American) to whine when things don’t turn out exactly the way you wanted (re: not getting featured enough by the “wall street” funded liberal media, etc). Finally, I’ll end my rant with a little bit of math. Luckily for Hillary, and the more level-headed Democrats out there who want to actually accomplish sth rather than just “screw the establishment,” PLEDGED delegates are allocated proportionally among candidates in states’ democratic primaries. This more or less dilutes the importance of winning states by a slim margin of victory, as both candidates will leave the state with roughly the same amount of PLEDGED delegates. Here’s the kicker–the caucus states Bernie beat Hillary in (okay okay and VT ha) didn’t have that many PLEDGED delegates to allocate in the first place, whereas the primaries in which Hillary CRUSHED Bernie (Florida comes to mind) were HUGE delegate prizes for HRC. This brings us to Hillary’s ~250+ lead in PLEDGED delegates over Bernie. There’s a reason why people are flirting with the word ‘insurmountable’–a reason Hillary knows all too well given her experience in 2008 Believe it or not, Hillary WAS Bernie in 2008, and after Obama carried the Southern half of the United States, HRC spent the rest of primary season playing catch up–sound familiar? Yet try as she might, HRC never did manage to catch up. In the slimmest of PLEDGED delegate leads (a mere 100 PD!!!) over Hillary, Obama cinched the Dem nom in 2008. Flash forward to today–as Hillary’s lead stands (~250+ lead in PLEDGED delegates), Bernie needs more than over 55% of remaining pledged delegates to tie Clinton and more than 60% to win nomination. I know what you’re going to say, BernieBros–“the revolution is still alive, #StillSanders blah blah troll troll blah.” Yet, Sanders himself concedes that a path to the nomination relying on PLEDGED delegates alone is no longer viable for him. So his campaign has decided to rely on the thing Bernie has bitched about the 3rd loudest (#1WallStreet, #2SuperPACs)–he’s certain he’s going to convince those “undemocratic” (his words, not mine) SUPERDELEGATES to #FeelTheBern. Oh, come on now. Superdelegates are not going to swing from the highly qualified, battle-tested transactional candidate who’s actually survived the GOP vetting processes before to a single-issue candidate that has no opinion on other equally important policy issues at stake in this country, to a candidate who spent 30+ years in Congress yet somehow failed to grasp that Congress makes laws and the President ENFORCES said laws (per US Constitution), to a candidate whose stated mission is to annihilate the “establishment” SUPERDELEGATES were created to best serve. Somehow, I just don’t see it happening. Honestly, I think Bernie said it best during the Democratic Presidential debate in Flint, Michigan, when Bernie turned to Hillary, jabbed a finger in her face in an attempt to shut her up, and proceeded to bluster, “WAIT YOUR TURN” at her. See that’s the thing, Bernie, HRC HAS waited. She’s been waiting patiently for ‘her turn,’ so Bernie should check himself, because HRC’s time is now. And no, don’t fret, I’m not concern trolling, I’m talking cold, hard read-it-and-weep, HRC following Obama of ’08’s path to the nomination MATH. Do please feel free to check it for yourself. End Rant.

    • Marianne: In order to understand the Democratic comments, you have to look at the Republican comments above it. In this case, I think you are “ranting” about the “polls” section, which says Bernie was ahead last month, by 1%. I thought people would catch that that is only in Wisconsin, the next state. I am changing the wording to clear that up.

      There is really nothing in this article that should give Bernie fans any joy at all. . .

      • Oh, I get that—my post was just a massive allergic reaction to the first comment on this thread ha. I’m fairly certain your opinion and my own POV line up pretty tidily with regards to the actual article (:

        • Pretty sure your post was simply a “massive allergic reaction”.

          Feel some relentless itch on your rear end?

        • So his “crusade against income equality is noble enough”; yet “utter nonsense”. Somewhere in the midst of this nearly-incomprehensible quagmire of a rant, you’ve conceded Hillary’s greatest strength: ruthless pragmatism.

          I think if you’d watched any debate with an unbiased lens Hillary comes across as the bully. True to form, true to to pandering to the “political winds” that has defined her entire career… she tries to sell herself as anti – Wall Street progressive. At least Bernie can manage to stick to the same message for more than a few months….

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?…

          I mean really, the fact that you need this many words to explain/defend her, when she has every major state political machine in her back pocket, says it all.

          We all hope you’ve gotten off the rag.

        • Why Hillary? Why do you want her? That giant run-on paragraph explained nothing but some arithmetic about her delegate count.

          But why do YOU LIKE HER? As far as I can tell she’s nothing but a charlatan, riding her husband’s coattails, who will espouse literally any position so long as it furthers her own personal ambitions.

          Bernie has been telling his truth for decades. Hillary has redefined duplicity.

    • So his “crusade against income equality is noble enough”; yet “utter nonsense”. Somewhere in the midst of this nearly-incomprehensible quagmire of a rant, you’ve conceded Hillary’s greatest strength: ruthless pragmatism.

      I think if you’d watched any debate with an unbiased lens Hillary comes across as the bully. True to form, true to to pandering to the “political winds” that has defined her entire career… she tries to sell herself as anti – Wall Street progressive. At least Bernie can manage to stick to the same message for more than a few months….

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bff6UhruH_c

      I mean really, the fact that you need this many words to explain/defend her, when she has every major state political machine in her back pocket, says it all.

    • So his “crusade against income equality is noble enough”; yet “utter nonsense”. Somewhere in the midst of this nearly-incomprehensible quagmire of a rant, you’ve conceded Hillary’s greatest strength: ruthless pragmatism.

      I think if you’d watched any debate with an unbiased lens Hillary comes across as the bully. True to form, true to to pandering to the “political winds” that has defined her entire career… she tries to sell herself as anti – Wall Street progressive. At least Bernie can manage to stick to the same message for more than a few months….

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bff6UhruH_c

      I mean really, the fact that you need this many words to explain/defend her, when she has every major state political machine in her back pocket, says it all.

  3. Only thing I wany to know is…when is Trump getting his 12 delegates from the Missouri win?? The secretary of Missouri has to sign off on it to make it official but it’s been almost 12 days and is a Cruz supporter. Clinton won Missouri by less than that and was certified. Are they keeping it from being official? Why isn’t the News all over this scam!!!!!!!!!!

  4. I think you don’t have enough information to ask that question. However, here is your angel: 1. he praised Fidel Castro for giving education and healthcare to the Cuban children.. I suggest you find some photos. 2. He dodged the Vietnam Draft as a conscientious objector. He voted against the Iraqi war, but said yes to the to another conflict in the middle east, which is a great if at least he would have said, “I support the troops.” It is just great to chose which wore you want to fight as a Senator who feels great about his choices. Not once did he ever mention his support for our boys fighting for his, mine and your freedom. Is that what you expect from a Commander-in-Chief? I reserved this one for best. Bernie Sanders wrote: “A woman enjoys intercourse with her man as she fantasize being raped by 3 men simultaneously.” “A man masturbates as he thinks of a woman on her knees or tied up.” A newspaper sells when there have been a 12-14 yeas old girl being raped. Only two days ago, an Indian girl got raped and then set on fire. One of congressman said,” I a girl gets raped, she should deal with it, and have the baby. Another congressman said, there is barely a pregnancy when a girl gets raped. So, go ahead a be the King where they have just decided to reactivate the stoning of woman. Did I give enough reasons. I am sure, you will find a way to justify it all.

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