Donald Trump has experienced a bump in his poll numbers following the terrorist attack in Paris while Ben Carson is witnessing a precipitous drop stemming from the same event. The trend is showing up in national polls as well as in New Hampshire where Carson has dropped from second place into single digits, well behind Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz who have taken the second and third spots respectively.

Report from AOL News:

Fox News released the results of its latest New Hampshire primary poll on Wednesday, and it doesn’t look good for Republican presidential hopeful Ben Carson.

The poll, the first conducted since Friday’s attacks in Paris, finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 27% of Republican primary voters. Marco Rubio came in second with 13%, with Ted Cruz trailing behind him at 11%.

Everyone else is in single digits.

Jeb Bush and Ben Carson received 9% each. Ohio Gov. John Kasich received 7% and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie received 6%.

What conclusions one can draw from the Fox poll are uncertain. Fifty-five percent of GOP primary voters surveyed said that they could change their mind before the primary.

The Fox News poll was conducted from November 15 to 17 by telephone and live interviewers from Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw and Co. Research.

The results of the poll mirror that of another poll released Wednesday, one conducted by Boston NPR station WBUR. In that poll, also surveying Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, Trump received 23% of Republican primary voters. Rubio tied with Carson for second place with 13%.

Though Carson remains one of the most favorable candidates in the GOP race, Carson’s favorability rating in New Hampshire has notably dipped.

Some analysts are saying that as the race winds into December and January, the “outsiders” like Trump and Carson will start to fade as GOP voters begin to seriously consider Commander-in-Chief qualities. That bug appears to be biting Carson though Trump seems unfazed at this point, perhaps even benefiting from it. Likewise, Rubio and Cruz are also getting a bounce as Carson is knocked down and Bush supporters seem to desert to Rubio.

With Jindal’s exit and the recent terrorist attack, the race is going through a realignment of sorts. This topic will be front and center at the next Republican debate on December 15.

43 COMMENTS

  1. Doctor Carson has been keeping a low profile since the Sunshine Summit, and a lot of cretins assume he is licking his “wounds”. If you have studied his problem solving history, as I have, then it becomes obvious that he is hiting the books like a sledgehammer, as he did for weeks at a time before each of his most challenging operations. In this case, he has been focused on plugging the foreign policy holes in his knowledge, or I am an aardvark. I only worry that staying out of the limelight is giving too much of the wrong impression (that he is wimping out) in the polls, so I hope he is able to wrap up the hardest of his studies in the next few days and get back on the campaign trail. If, God forbid, he can’t catch up, then I pray that Cruz, Fiorina or Rubio can use the slow and steady rout to beat Trump, as they are my top three after Carson. Stossl proved years ago what kind of a crony bully Trump is at Atlantic city, acting like the main villain in “Batteries Not Included”. If he had shown any compassion to that woman I might support him now, but that petty tyranny is not something Liberty lovers should ever overlook.

      • Sure, and I would love Paul myself—for treasurer. I adore his domestic ideas, I want to tear the reserve to the ground, but his isolation position will remain untenable for at least fifty more years. We have a lot of allies to shore up before we can entertain that position. So, if all goes well, I will be a full right leaning libertarian by the time I am 80, but not before. At any rate, Stossel is a fine reporter.

        • I can see your point of view, in fact I shared it for many years, but I have come to see that our ‘allies’ stop feeling like allies when the Yanks take over and do it our way. (And I would even go so far as to say that our way is often a good way…but maybe it’s not for everyone.)

        • Nonsense that Rand Paul is isolationist (that’s what MSM wants you to believe). Read Rand’s statements before stating such falsehoods.

          On your: “his isolation position will remain untenable for at least fifty more years” — are you saying that we, the USA, need to war for 50 more years to achieve peace?!

          War against which global powers that can invade our shores en masse? ISIS, Al-Qaeda, etc. (all the crazy Muslim terrorists) that have NO Navy, NO Airforce, NO Mechanized Army? Are we to fear them from building thousands of rowboats to cross thousands of miles of ocean to invade us…?

          The instant way to stop all Muslim terrorists doing damage, is to ban any Muslim TODAY from coming to America — and repatriate all that have come here. After all, this nation was not built by Muslims, so why should we allow any of them in USA ?!

          Much cheaper, kinder and war-free solution, than the 50 years of WAR you envision!

          Rand Paul for President, or the END of our Free Republic!

          This is apodictic.

          • I meant that we cannot abandon our weakest allies before they can survive on their own, particularly South Korea and Tai Wan. I technically agree that we must avoid non defensive conflict, but settling on a modern definition on what does and does not count as “defensive” is a beuracratic minefield that is not going to be settled anytime soon. The games that have been played with that since Vietnam is almost as big a hydra to slay as the tax code. Wahibist terrorism will continue to be used by warmongers to obfuscate the debate, delaying indefinitly finally settling in stone what IS and IS NOT “defensive” war. Subsequently, I feel that it is a waste of time to push policy like that at this time, and should focus at chipping away at the Establishment foundations, and I feel that Dr. Carson is the best choice for that job. Having Paul as Treasurer as well can do wonders to clear the field of the Establishment rubble, and within 20 years something as big as the “defensive” question can finally be fixed, and when THAT is solved, we can FINALLY begin to responsibly pull back from most of our foreign entanglements, and be free of most of them by 2060.

            • LOL — kids say the darndest things….

              At the end of this post I’ll give you reading material you must absorb, before you post again. It will open your eyes — this way, you’ll be able to make logical conclusions, rather than just opinions.

              Let’s logically dissect your post:

              1) “I meant that we cannot abandon our weakest allies before they can survive on their own, particularly South Korea and Tai Wan.”

              a) South Korea is just fine. N. Korea is utterly bankrupt, to the point where they’ll run out of tortoises to feed themselves, so will eventually succumb to cannibalism (at which point their people will revolt). N. Korea has nukes they cannot deploy, just blow themselves up if trying, aside from having an antiquated army that South Korea can crush within a week.

              b) Taiwan is an island. As such, even the Greatest Threat to USA — China — cannot invade them without a naval attack, which any competent Airforce can sink in minutes! So, they are safe.

              2) “…and within 20 years something as big as the “defensive” question can
              finally be fixed, and when THAT is solved, we can FINALLY begin to
              responsibly pull back from most of our foreign entanglements, and be
              free of most of them by 2060. ”

              a) So, from your previous 50 years of US constant warring to “assure peace” (“but his [Rand Paul] isolation position will remain untenable for at least fifty more years”) you now settle for 20 more years of wars? Or 45 more, till 2060: can’t you make up your mind exactly how long we must war upon the world to achieve your goal whereby “we can FINALLY begin to responsibly pull back from MOST of our foreign entanglements, and be free of MOST of them by 2060” — Most..not ALL…by 2060?!?

              Kid, do you see why your posts read like INSANITY NOW!

              P.S. Here are the books you must read:

              J.S. Mill: “On Liberty” — gives credence why Individuals’ Rights supersede Government edicts.

              Plato: “The Republic” — explains the difference between worthy and pernicious governments, and teaches you logic at the same time.

              Aristotle: “Organon” — how Logic works, the foundation of all thinkers.

              God luck — you have a bright mind, hope you put it to a logical use.

            • I have read much Plato and Aristotle, I have also read much of their Christien counterparts, St. Augustine, St. Aquainas, and G.K. Chesterton. To be clear, I was giving a pessimistic estimate (GK would be dissapointed in me) based not on what we OUGHT to do, or what we are economically capable of, but what I meant is that that is how long it will take to fight through establishment beuracratic interference. I am being a cynical realist in the short run, but still hopeful and confident in the long run. We are going to be wrestling with those prigs for years to get a sane, permenant definition of “defensive war” to replace the ‘flavor of the week’ corruption. My estimate was the sum of how long that will take combined with the time it will take to properly pull back from the world stage. Another thing we need to help oversee first, as subtly as possible, is to help sane Muslims like the Kurds initiate an anti-Wahabi Islamic Reformation. If we TRULY want to be free of any entanglements whatever someday, that has got to be a goal, or future terrorist strikes will continue to be used as fodder by warmongers to keep us entangled indefinitely. Like in the game GO, how do we defeat our enemies with as little loss of life as possible? Now, perhaps you can come up with a better, still plausible, timeline then mine, but I don’t see how. One thing I AM sure of is that winning over the majority Black vote to the GOP is an important step to this goal, however long it takes, and Doctor Carson can do that if we support him now. It could be 20 years or more before we get another chance.

    • Carson’s 15 minutes are up. He does one thing well. Period.

      His real problem is pretending to know things he doesn’t know. That may work when you’re facing a complex operation, but not when you’re answering questions that can be fact-checked.

      “What’s up, doc?” Not Bennie.

      • One thing? He had the chops to excell in the military, or so a general believed. He has been a teacher for more then 30 years, is a skilled writer, and ran his hospital in terms of a business with great success. He is going to make it to the primaries, he is going to win huge chunks of the minority vote, and if he does not make it, the wiser conservatives are going to kick themselves forever for failing to take this chance to hobble the Dems for 30 years.

        • I’ve heard he knows how to tie his shoes, too. But he is catastrophically ignorant in some of the most important areas. In a way that cramming book details won’t help.

          • He has demonstrated brilliantly that a compassionate solution must be found in the region, and has confirmed it personally. The refugees most demanding to emigrate are youn single men, yet families, like the ones Obama wants, only want to as a last resort. They want to stay in the Mid East and return to their homes and rebuild. Carson heard that over and over; no one with an iota of patriotism is content to live in exile. No other candidate has demonstrated this among the refugees, as well as how much more suspicious it makes all those young men look. He looked at them as a doctor would, and became a more complete candidate for it in a way on Rand Paul can equal, and even then, Doctor Paul’s experiences with the desperate poor are mostly in the Caribbean. This is not tying shoes, this is an adept who can learn a whole book of sailors knots in a single day!

    • Dr. Ben Carson is the most dangerous man in America today!

      Why? Because, being an honest man, and thus a clueless politician, if he wins the nomination he’ll destroyed in the presidential “debates” vs Hillary Clinton — Hillary is a polished political narcissistic creature versed in the art of making pathological lies sound reasonable!

      If you want Hillary to finish the destruction of our Nation, which Obama started, go with the good Doctor Carson — Hillary is rubbing her hands in glee at this prospect.

            • Now you talk sense!

              Rand Paul for president and Ben Carson for vice president!

              Unbeatable combination!!!

            • It would also give Carson vital experience for a future run. I have been thinking a combination of the best in experience and the best in new blood would be ideal.

            • Whoever the nominee is, if not Carson, would be insane not to make Carson VP as he WILL win more blacks in the primary then has been seen since Hoover. Philip Sousa has proved this, and strategists whose long term priority is to beat Hillary ignore the fact at our collective peril. I do worry a bit about Rand in your scenario, as Hillary’s team is bound to try to raise the old canard that his dad was a Dixicrat as a youth, and by extension a bad influence on Rand, and thus weaken Carson’s influence in the general election. Pure hypocrisy, given Bill’s and Al Gore’s family roots with segregation.

            • Rand Paul has proven himself that he can destroy Hillary in

              make this a debate — it would be insane for the GOP to try an unproven one to face off the most accomplished Fraudster (Whitewater-gate), Liar (Email-gate) and Murderer by proxy (Benghazi-gate) Hillary Clinton.

              Rand Paul Destroys Hillary Clinton Over Benghazi-Gate:

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jriU_cPU9Vk

              make this 6 minute video viral!

  2. There must be something dangerously good about Rand Paul (who, no one can deny, has a staunch and numerous following), that causes so many news sources to play down his candidacy. Is it possible that he is alone in defending the constitution of the United States? People mention Ted Cruz, but he offers the Freedom Act to replace the Patriot Act…which makes things even worse for all of us. Cruz is a politician, not a bona fide libertarian, though he would love to have Rand Paul’s numerous following…but alas, they are staunch…so the power brokers (and Cruz’s campaign aims to be in league with them), try to destroy Paul by pretending he isn’t there. (Nothing to see here, nothing to see here, move along, move along….but wait! we want to see him, we want to hear him…but no. Move along, move along….vote for someone the RNC can manipulate.) Does anyone know any way to turn the RNC into a vehicle of the people, by the people, and for the people…instead of a weapon for totalitarian government?

    • Spot on!

      Only the son of Ron Paul — Rand — can restore the US Constitution which is being shredded as we speak!

      The rest (with the exception of Ben Carson, who is also a patriot, but, unfortunately clueless) are nothing but status quo scum!

  3. Nate posts: “Everyone else is in single digits. Jeb Bush and Ben Carson received 9% each. Ohio Gov. John Kasich received 7% and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie received 6%.”

    Where are Rand Paul’s standings…?!?!?

    Or, are you also contributing to another BLACKOUT, like the mainstream media did to his father, Ron Paul, in 2012…?!

    • “Where are Rand Paul’s numbers?”

      That’s the problem–nobody can find them. It’s not a conspiracy. People are just not listening to him.

      That’s sad. Cuz he’s the best of the lot.

      • Perhaps people are not being allowed to listen to him. Perhaps we should all be praying with all our might that Reince Priebus, et al on the RNC, sees the light and starts leading us back to freedom and honest government. I believe that there are many monotheists from other major religions who would be praying with Christians on this issue. (So let’s do it, before it is too late.)

  4. So, according to Nate’s lackey Goethe: “”Where are Rand Paul’s numbers?”
    That’s the problem–nobody can find them. It’s not a conspiracy. People are just not listening to him.”

    Nate, do you concur with your sidekick’s statement above — that Rand Paul has ZERO numbers…therefore, you omitted Rand from the picture of running for US President… while Chris Christie received 6%?!?

    LOL — deja vu, all over again!

    • Hillary, your hysteria really does get tiresome.

      In my post above, I noted that Rand is the best of the lot.

      And show me where I said he had zero numbers. But now that you mention it, his numbers have been frustratingly close to zero, when you consider the margin of error.

      The sad fact is that Rand is not Ron–in integrity, in personality, in dedication, in ideals, in popularity. He’s the best of the current crop, but he’s not his dad. Not by a long shot.

  5. Can anyone give me an ELI5 on what’s the point of these one-state polls? New Hampshire is not choosing the Republican nominee; the entire country is. Why would it matter so much what New Hampshire thinks?

    • The one-state polls suggest how the primary in that state is leaning. In elections since the 1970s, state primaries are how candidates have been selected.

      In previous posts, we showed that if someone won just ELEVEN primaries, they would be the nominee. That’s why it matters what New Hampshire thinks.

      You’re apparently not old enough to remember how Ed Muskie’s presidential plans were dashed in just one night in New Hampshire–standing in front of the Union Leader offices.

  6. Nate — you still have not answered why you are doing a black-out on Rand Paul?!

    You mention all other candidates — even state bottom-feeder Chris Christie received 6% — but, RAND PAUL is NON-EXISTENT in your post!

    Why?

    Are you afraid of patriot Rand Paul doing as US President what his father taught him — stopping all Foreign Aid (since it is immoral to take money from the poor of a rich nation (the USA) and gift it away to the rich in poor nations)?

    Are you so invested in Israel, which is sucking US dry and daily creating more Muslim Terrorists that hate us, since our AIPAC chosen Reps support the terrorist State of Israel… that you care naught for Real Americans? Is that why you are doing a black-out on Rand Paul, just like the Zionist-owned Mainstream Media in US did in 2012 on his father, Ron Paul?

    Nate, will you answer on your own WHY YOU ARE BLACK-BALLING Rand Paul — or will you keep hiding again behind your lackey, Goethe Bore, who posts non-sequiturs….?

      • The latest poll puts Rand at 1%. Assuming a 3% margin of error, he could actually be at -2%.

        If he can hold on until the top tier tires, Rand could wipe up the floor with people like Cruz and Rubio.

        It’s telling that McConnell is telling Rand to go home and “protect” his senate seat, when Democrats can’t even find anyone to run against him.

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