Republicans do not have much room for error this November.
The Cook Political Report currently rates 19 House races as Toss Ups, and 15 of them are held by Republicans. That does not mean all 15 are equally likely to change hands. Some incumbents have repeatedly survived difficult districts. Others are running in territory that still gives Republicans a natural advantage. A few have problems that have little to do with the district at all.
So we narrowed the field.
This is our ranking of the 10 Republican incumbents most at risk of losing in November, based on the district, the 2024 results, the opponent, the current political environment and what has happened in these races over the summer.
10. Derrick Van Orden, Wisconsin 3
Democratic challenger: Rebecca Cooke
Cook PVI: R+3
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Derrick Van Orden and Rebecca Cooke are headed for a rematch after Cooke won Wisconsin’s Aug. 11 Democratic primary. Van Orden has one important advantage that several Republicans higher on this list do not: his district still has a Republican lean. Western Wisconsin has moved toward the GOP over the past decade, particularly among rural and working-class voters.
But Cooke came close in 2024 and Democrats clearly believe another run is worth the investment. Van Orden should be helped by the fundamentals of the district. The fact that Cook still calls it a Toss Up tells you why he belongs here.
9. Juan Ciscomani, Arizona 6
Democratic challenger: JoAnna Mendoza
Cook PVI: EVEN
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Juan Ciscomani has never had the luxury of representing a safe seat. Cook rates Arizona’s 6th as politically even, and Ciscomani has already survived two competitive general elections there. This time Democrats are running Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza.
Ciscomani’s history of winning close races matters. He has shown he can hold the sort of district Republicans need if they want to keep the House. But there is virtually no partisan cushion underneath him. In a bad national environment for Republicans, AZ-06 could move quickly.
8. Rob Bresnahan, Pennsylvania 8
Democratic challenger: Paige Cognetti
Cook PVI: R+4
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Rob Bresnahan flipped northeastern Pennsylvania in 2024 by defeating longtime Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright. Now Democrats are trying to make him a one-term congressman. Their nominee is Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti, which gives Democrats a candidate with a political base in the heart of the district. There is some good news for Bresnahan. PA-08 is R+4 according to Cook, making it one of the more Republican districts on this list. The Scranton and Wilkes-Barre region has also moved toward Republicans in recent presidential elections.
The question is whether that shift has become strong enough to protect a freshman Republican in a difficult midterm.
7. Gabe Evans, Colorado 8
Democratic challenger: Manny Rutinel
Cook PVI: EVEN
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Colorado’s 8th has spent its entire short existence producing close elections. Democrat Yadira Caraveo won the newly created district in 2022 by roughly 1,600 votes. Two years later, Gabe Evans flipped it by fewer than 2,500. Now Evans faces Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel. There isn’t much partisan padding here. Cook rates the district EVEN. That means Evans cannot simply wait for Republican voters to carry him across the finish line. He has to win the middle again.
In a neutral year, this would be a fight. In a midterm with a Republican president, it becomes even more dangerous.
6. Mike Lawler, New York 17
Democratic challenger: Cait Conley
Cook PVI: D+1
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Mike Lawler has a problem most Republicans would rather not have: his district is slightly Democratic. Kamala Harris carried NY-17 in 2024, yet Lawler survived anyway. That is why he is not higher on this list. Lawler has built a reputation as a Republican who can win crossover voters in the Hudson Valley. Democrats are challenging him with Army veteran Cait Conley, and there will be no shortage of national money flowing into the race.
If this ranking were based only on district fundamentals, Lawler would be near the very top. His track record is what moves him down.
5. Scott Perry, Pennsylvania 10
Democratic challenger: Janelle Stelson
Cook PVI: R+3
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Scott Perry has already seen this movie once. Former television anchor Janelle Stelson came within roughly 5,000 votes of beating him in 2024. She won the Democratic nomination again this year, setting up one of the most obvious rematches on the House map. Perry’s district is not naturally Democratic. But Perry has become a national political figure through his former leadership of the House Freedom Caucus, which makes it easier for Democrats to turn a local congressional race into something bigger.
Stelson does not need to introduce herself this time. Neither does Perry. A race that was close two years ago begins 2026 as a Toss Up.
4. Jen Kiggans, Virginia 2
Democratic challenger: Elaine Luria
Cook PVI: EVEN
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Jen Kiggans defeated Elaine Luria in 2022. Now Luria is back for the rematch. Both are Navy veterans, which matters in a Hampton Roads district packed with active-duty military personnel, veterans and defense workers. Both also begin this race with the advantage of being familiar to voters. The district itself offers neither party much help. Cook rates VA-02 as EVEN. Kiggans has already demonstrated that she can win here. But 2026 presents a different political environment than 2022, and Luria is not an unknown challenger trying to build a campaign from scratch.
This one could be close all the way to Election Day.
3. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Iowa 1
Democratic challenger: Christina Bohannan
Cook PVI: R+4
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Mariannette Miller-Meeks survived 2024 by fewer than 1,000 votes. There really isn’t a more complicated explanation for why she’s this high on the list. Christina Bohannan is back, giving Iowa voters the same matchup for a third consecutive election. Miller-Meeks has beaten her before, but last time the margin was razor thin. What makes IA-01 particularly interesting is the gap between the district’s Republican lean and the congressional result. Cook rates it R+4. On paper, Miller-Meeks should have more room than some Republicans on this list.
She didn’t in 2024. If Bohannan can reproduce that race in a midterm environment less favorable to Republicans, Miller-Meeks is in real trouble.
2. Ryan Mackenzie, Pennsylvania 7
Democratic challenger: Bob Brooks
Cook PVI: R+1
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Pennsylvania’s 7th looks almost exactly like the kind of seat Democrats need to win the House. Ryan Mackenzie flipped the Lehigh Valley district in 2024 by defeating Democratic Rep. Susan Wild. He now faces firefighter Bob Brooks. Cook noted earlier this cycle that Donald Trump carried the district by only about three points in 2024 while Mackenzie won his House race by roughly one point. Mackenzie has the advantage of incumbency this time, but very little else about the district provides much comfort. The Lehigh Valley has remained stubbornly competitive while other parts of Pennsylvania have moved more decisively toward one party.
If Democrats are having a good night nationally, PA-07 should be one of the first Republican seats in danger.
1. Max Miller, Ohio 7
Democratic challenger: Brian Poindexter
Cook PVI: R+5
Cook Rating: Toss Up
A few months ago, Max Miller would not have been No. 1 on this list. Then his race changed almost overnight. Miller’s ex-wife has accused him of domestic abuse, including serious allegations involving their young daughter. Miller denies the allegations and requested a House Ethics Committee investigation himself.
The political fallout has been severe enough that Cook moved OH-07 from Likely Republican to Toss Up on Aug. 10. The deadline for Republicans to replace Miller on the ballot has passed, leaving the party headed toward November with him as its nominee. That is remarkable because this should not be one of the hardest Republican seats to defend. Cook rates OH-07 at R+5, the strongest Republican lean of anyone in our top 10. That’s precisely why Miller ranks first.
The district didn’t suddenly become hostile to Republicans. The candidate turned a Republican-leaning seat into a Toss Up. Democrat Brian Poindexter doesn’t need northeast Ohio to undergo some massive political realignment. He needs enough Republican and independent voters to decide they cannot vote for Miller.
In a year when Republicans have very few seats to spare, OH-07 has become a problem they did not need.
The House Majority Could Come Down to This List
The order will change.
Lawler and Ciscomani have proven they can win difficult districts. Miller-Meeks represents territory that is more Republican than her last election result suggests. Kiggans has already defeated Luria. Miller’s situation is almost entirely candidate-driven and could look very different if the political environment changes.
But the larger problem for Republicans is clear.
They are not defending one type of vulnerable seat. They have incumbents sitting in politically even districts. They have Republicans representing territory Democrats can win at the presidential level. They have freshmen defending narrow victories. They have rematches against challengers who nearly beat them before. And in Ohio, they now have a normally Republican seat thrown into doubt by allegations against the incumbent.
Cook’s current board has 15 Republican-held seats in the Toss Up column compared with four Democratic-held seats.
Republicans do not need to save every member on this list to keep the House.
They just cannot afford to lose very many of them.