The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is centered on a small group of closely divided races. This page tracks the latest RealClearPolitics polling averages in the contests most likely to determine the Senate majority in the November 3, 2026, general election.
Republicans currently hold a 53–47 majority over the Democratic-aligned Senate caucus. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the chamber in 2027.
What the latest Senate polling would mean
The map below shows the Senate outcome if the current RealClearPolitics polling leader won each tracked race and all other seats remained with their currently expected party. It is a polling snapshot, not an Election Central forecast.
If today's polling averages held
Important: This is a polling snapshot, not an Election Central forecast. It assumes the current polling leader wins each tracked race. Polling averages can change, and a polling lead does not indicate the probability that a candidate will win.
Latest 2026 Senate battleground polling averages
The table below tracks the current RealClearPolitics polling average and RCP race rating for 12 closely watched contests. Select View Polls to see the surveys included in each average.
Table last updated October 8, 2026. Polling averages and race ratings can change as new surveys are released.
| State | Seat | Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate | RCP Average | RCP Rating | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | R-held (incumbent) | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | Peltola +1.2 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Florida (Special) | R-held (special; appointed incumbent) | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | Moody +6.7 | Leans Republican | View Polls |
| Georgia | D-held (incumbent) | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | Ossoff +7.8 | Leans Democratic | View Polls |
| Iowa | R-held (open) | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Turek +0.7 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Kansas | R-held (incumbent) | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | Marshall +0.2 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Maine | R-held (incumbent) | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | Jackson +0.7 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Michigan | D-held (open) | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | El-Sayed +3.2 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Minnesota | D-held (open) | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | Flanagan +1.6 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| New Hampshire | D-held (open) | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | Pappas +5.9 | Leans Democratic | View Polls |
| North Carolina | R-held (open) | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | Cooper +9.0 | Likely Democratic | View Polls |
| Ohio (Special) | R-held (special; appointed incumbent) | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | Brown +3.5 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Texas | R-held (open) | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | Talarico +3.1 | Toss Up | View Polls |
Notes
- Alaska: Alaska uses ranked-choice voting and has four candidates on the general-election ballot. The polling average shown above reflects the head-to-head Sullivan–Peltola comparison published by RealClearPolitics.
- Nebraska: RealClearPolitics rates the contest between Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn as Toss Up. RCP lists individual polls for the race but does not currently publish an RCP Average, so Nebraska is not included in the table.
What the latest Senate polls show
As of October 8, Democratic candidates lead the RealClearPolitics averages in 10 of the 12 races tracked here, while Republican candidates lead in two.
Eight of the 12 races with published averages are rated Toss Up by RealClearPolitics. Nebraska is the ninth Toss Up on RCP’s broader Senate map, but RCP does not currently publish a polling average for that contest.
How this polling guide is maintained
Polling averages and RCP race ratings are drawn from RealClearPolitics’ 2026 Senate map and its individual state polling pages. Candidate and ballot information is cross-checked against the Election Central 2026 Senate election guide and official state election sources.
This page focuses on the races most likely to affect control of the chamber rather than every Senate contest. States may be added or removed when polling activity or race ratings change materially.
The RealClearPolitics average is produced by RealClearPolitics and is presented here with attribution and direct source links. Election Central does not independently recalculate the average. This page is refreshed whenever RealClearPolitics polling averages, candidate matchups or race ratings change.