The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is centered on a small group of closely divided races. This page tracks the latest RealClearPolitics polling averages in the contests most likely to determine the Senate majority in the November 3, 2026, general election.
Republicans currently hold a 53–47 majority over the Democratic-aligned Senate caucus. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the chamber in 2027.
2026 Senate polling at a glance
- Races tracked: 12 of the most competitive and closely watched Senate contests.
- RCP Senate map: Nine races are currently rated Toss-up.
- Seats needed for control: 51, or 50 plus the vice president’s tie-breaking vote.
- Democratic path: A net gain of four seats would produce a majority.
- Election Day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Latest 2026 Senate battleground polling averages
The table below tracks the current RealClearPolitics polling average and RCP race rating for 12 closely watched contests. Select View Polls to see the surveys included in each average.
Table last updated September 21, 2026. Polling averages and race ratings can change as new surveys are released.
| State | Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate | RCP Average | RCP Rating | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | Peltola +1.7 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Florida (Special) | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | Moody +5.0 | Leans Republican | View Polls |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | Ossoff +7.5 | Leans Democratic | View Polls |
| Iowa | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Hinson +1.3 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | Marshall +1.5 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | Jackson +1.8 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | El-Sayed +2.1 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | Flanagan +1.8 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | Pappas +4.8 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | Cooper +8.3 | Leans Democratic | View Polls |
| Ohio (Special) | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | Brown +4.8 | Toss Up | View Polls |
| Texas | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | Talarico +2.6 | Toss Up | View Polls |
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting and has four candidates on the general-election ballot. The polling average shown above reflects the head-to-head Sullivan–Peltola comparison published by RealClearPolitics.
What the latest Senate polls show
As of September 21, Democratic candidates lead the RealClearPolitics averages in nine of the 12 races tracked here, while Republican candidates lead in three. Seven of the 12 polling margins are under three percentage points, underscoring how unsettled the fight for Senate control remains.
The current RCP Senate map places Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas in the Toss-up category. Georgia and North Carolina are rated Lean Democratic, while Florida’s special election is rated Lean Republican.
Polling averages are snapshots rather than predictions. Differences in methodology, sample composition, turnout assumptions and the dates covered by an average can all affect the numbers. A small polling lead should not be interpreted as a guaranteed election outcome.
The path to control of the Senate
Republicans entered the election cycle with a 53–47 majority over the Democratic-aligned caucus. Democrats must protect their competitive seats while gaining four Republican-held seats to secure an outright majority.
Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire are open Democratic-held seats currently classified as Toss-ups by RCP. North Carolina offers Democrats a potential pickup opportunity, while Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas represent additional Republican-held contests that could determine whether either party reaches 51 seats.
Because the vice president breaks tie votes, a 50–50 Senate would leave Republicans in control. Democrats therefore need to reach 51 seats rather than merely produce a tie.
How this polling guide is maintained
Polling averages and RCP race ratings are drawn from RealClearPolitics’ 2026 Senate map and its individual state polling pages. Candidate and ballot information is cross-checked against the Election Central 2026 Senate election guide and official state election sources.
This page focuses on the races most likely to affect control of the chamber rather than every Senate contest. States may be added or removed when polling activity or race ratings change materially.
The RealClearPolitics average is produced by RealClearPolitics and is presented here with attribution and direct source links. Election Central does not independently recalculate the average. This page will normally be refreshed twice each week and after major polling or race-rating changes.