Republicans have plenty of challenges on the House map this year. That does not mean Democrats get to play defense-free.
The latest movement in the 2026 battlefield has given Republicans five clear opportunities to knock off Democratic incumbents. After a fresh ratings change on Aug. 25, the Cook Political Report moved another Democratic-held seat into its Toss Up column, giving the GOP a small but important group of places to play offense.
The districts could hardly be more different. One belongs to the longest-serving woman in congressional history. Another is represented by a Democrat who has built a reputation by breaking with her own party. Two are in Florida, where redistricting dramatically changed the political terrain. If Republicans want to hold the House, these are five Democrats they have every reason to target.
5. Jared Moskowitz, Florida 25
Republican challenger: Scott Singer
Cook PVI: R+3
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Jared Moskowitz survived his first test of the summer on Aug. 18, comfortably defeating a progressive primary challenger. Now comes the race Republicans actually care about. Former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer emerged from a crowded Republican primary and will face Moskowitz in November.
Moskowitz is hardly an easy Democrat for Republicans to run against. He has cultivated a more bipartisan image than much of his party and has shown a willingness to criticize Democrats publicly. But Florida’s new congressional map changed the equation. What might once have been an uncomfortable but manageable reelection campaign is now a race Cook considers too close to call.
Republicans have the district they wanted. Singer now has to prove the new lines can produce an actual Republican victory.
4. Kathy Castor, Florida 14
Republican challenger: Mike Beltran
Cook PVI: R+4
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Kathy Castor was not even going to make this list when we first started planning it. Then Florida held its Aug. 18 primary, former state Rep. Mike Beltran won the Republican nomination, and the race moved again.
Beltran took about 46 percent in a crowded GOP primary, defeating former state Rep. Kevin Steele and several other Republicans. Florida Politics reported that Beltran now gets the chance to mount the first truly serious general-election challenge Castor has faced in years.
The district itself is why Republicans are interested. Under Florida’s new congressional lines, Donald Trump would have carried FL-14 by roughly 10 points in 2024. Cook rates the district R+4. Yet Castor’s position has actually improved since the map was adopted. On Aug. 25, Cook moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up, citing the settled matchup and fresh polling.
That makes FL-14 a useful test for Republicans. They got a district that should be winnable on paper. Now they have to beat a Democratic incumbent who has represented Tampa for two decades.
3. Vicente Gonzalez, Texas 34
Republican challenger: Eric Flores
Cook PVI: R+3
Cook Rating: Toss Up
South Texas has been moving toward Republicans for years, and the new congressional map gives the GOP another chance to find out how permanent that shift really is.
Vicente Gonzalez faces former federal prosecutor Eric Flores, who won the Republican nomination with support from President Trump, Gov. Greg Abbott and House Republican leaders. Republicans specifically redrew the district to make it easier to flip. The Texas Tribune reported that Trump would have carried the new district by roughly 10 points in 2024, compared with about four points under the previous lines.
Gonzalez is no stranger to difficult campaigns, and Republicans have tried to take him out before. That is what makes TX-34 important beyond a single House seat. The GOP has spent years arguing that South Texas is undergoing a lasting political realignment. If that is true, this is exactly the kind of district Republicans should be able to win.
2. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Washington 3
Republican challenger: John Braun
Cook PVI: R+2
Cook Rating: Toss Up
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez may be the hardest Democrat on this list to categorize. She represents a district Trump carried in 2024, but she has survived by building a political identity that regularly puts distance between herself and the national Democratic Party. That has won her support from independents and some Republicans while irritating progressives.
The Aug. 4 top-two primary showed why Republicans remain interested. Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun finished ahead of Gluesenkamp Perez, while progressive Democrat Brent Hennrich took a meaningful share of the vote. Because Washington uses a top-two system, Braun and Gluesenkamp Perez advanced to November.
The primary result is not a general-election forecast. Votes for Hennrich cannot simply be handed to Gluesenkamp Perez, and turnout will look very different in November. Still, an incumbent Democrat finishing behind her Republican opponent in a district with an R+2 Cook PVI is enough to get the GOP’s attention.
Gluesenkamp Perez has already shown she can win voters who normally lean Republican. She may need to do it one more time.
1. Marcy Kaptur, Ohio 9
Republican challenger: Derek Merrin
Cook PVI: R+5
Cook Rating: Toss Up
No Democrat on this list faces a more obvious structural problem than Marcy Kaptur. She has represented northwest Ohio since 1983, making her the longest-serving woman in congressional history, but she is now defending a district that has become substantially more favorable to Republicans.
Ohio Republicans redrew OH-09 ahead of the 2026 election, and Cook now gives the district an R+5 partisan voting index. Republicans are also sending back a candidate who already came close to beating her. Derek Merrin won the May Republican primary and will face Kaptur in a rematch of their 2024 contest, when she survived by roughly 2,400 votes.
This time Merrin gets a friendlier map. Kaptur’s longevity still matters. After more than four decades representing the area, she has a political identity that goes well beyond the Democratic label, and Republicans have learned before that beating her is harder than simply looking at presidential numbers.
But there is only so much ticket-splitting an incumbent can ask voters to do. Kaptur barely survived Merrin once. The new district makes the rematch considerably more dangerous.
Republicans Have Opportunities. They Need to Cash In
There is an obvious caveat to this list. The broader House battlefield currently gives Democrats more offensive opportunities than Republicans. Anyone looking at the map objectively has to acknowledge that. But Republicans do not need every competitive district to move in the same direction. They need offsets.
If Democrats flip a Republican seat in Pennsylvania, Iowa or Arizona, the GOP can answer by taking one in Ohio, Texas, Florida or Washington. Holding the House may ultimately depend just as much on knocking off vulnerable Democrats as protecting vulnerable Republicans.
And these are not imaginary pickup opportunities. Kaptur is defending an R+5 district after barely surviving the last election. Gonzalez is running on lines deliberately redrawn to favor Republicans. Gluesenkamp Perez represents a district Trump carried and finished behind her Republican opponent in the top-two primary. Florida now gives Republicans two serious shots against Democratic incumbents under its new map.
That gives the GOP five places to go hunting. Republicans do not need to win all five, but if they want to keep control of the House in a year when much of the battlefield is working against them, they probably need to win some of them.