CNN data analyst Harry Enten is offering a rough outlook for Democrats as the midterm season approaches. Recent polling, he says, shows Republicans holding a surprisingly steady edge on the issues voters rank highest, leaving Democrats in a vulnerable position.
According to surveys from The Washington Post and Ipsos, Republicans lead Democrats by seven points on the economy, thirteen points on immigration, and twenty-two points on crime. Those gaps are wider than they were in 2022, suggesting the GOP has gained ground on the topics that most often sway elections.
Here’s the breathless Enten explaining it in his signature style:
“Democrats have not picked up the ball and are not running with it,” Enten said during a recent CNN segment. He argued that Republicans are capitalizing on voter concerns while Democrats have yet to mount a clear, convincing message.
The problem is a familiar one for the party in power. Midterms often turn into a referendum on how the country is doing. Voter frustration over crime, immigration, and everyday costs can quickly erode support for incumbents.
Enten pointed out that there is still time. With more than a year until ballots are cast, public opinion could shift. But unless Democrats start showing progress or persuading voters that they are addressing these top concerns, Republicans are in a position to set the terms of the debate.
For now, the numbers suggest Democrats are heading into the midterms on defense.