A few months ago, Vivek Ramaswamy looked like he was in good shape to become Ohio’s next governor. He had Donald Trump’s endorsement, Ohio had moved decisively toward Republicans in recent elections, and some early polling showed him with a comfortable lead over Democrat Amy Acton.
With Election Day now just days away, the picture looks dramatically different. Acton leads most of the recent public polls, Ramaswamy’s controversial attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother has disappeared from television, and even Republicans are circulating internal polling suggesting the race moved sharply against him after the ad began airing.
Ramaswamy Used to Lead This Race
The change did not happen overnight, and the early polling really was better for Ramaswamy. In April 2025, a Bowling Green/YouGov poll had him ahead of Acton 50% to 45%. By August 2025, an Emerson poll showed Ramaswamy leading 49% to 39%, a 10-point advantage. Another Bowling Green/YouGov survey that October still had him ahead 50% to 47%.
- April 2025 — YouGov: Ramaswamy +5
- August 2025 — Emerson: Ramaswamy +10
- October 2025 — YouGov: Ramaswamy +3
- April 2026 — YouGov: Ramaswamy +1
- August 2026 — Fox News: Ramaswamy +2
By late summer 2026, however, the race was clearly tightening. The August Fox poll still had Ramaswamy ahead by two, but September surveys increasingly showed Acton moving in front, and the October polling has mostly stayed there. The current RealClearPolling average now has Acton ahead 48.6% to 44.3%.
The October Polls Look Very Different
The latest polling is no longer showing an occasional Democratic lead surrounded by Republican advantages. Acton has led most of the major October surveys, often by margins large enough to stand out in a state Trump carried comfortably in 2024.
- Early October — CNN: Acton +8
- Early October — YouGov: Acton +6
- Mid-October — Cook Political Report: Acton +5
- Mid-October — Marist: Acton +7
- Mid-October — Fox News: Acton +2
- Late October — Suffolk: Acton +4
The current RealClearPolling average has Acton ahead by roughly four points. Polling averages are not election results, and close statewide races can still produce meaningful misses, but there is now a consistent pattern across several different pollsters showing Ramaswamy behind.
Ohio Has Been Friendly Territory for Republican Governors
Ramaswamy is not running in a state where Republicans have struggled to win the governor’s office. Mike DeWine won his first term in 2018 and then cruised to reelection four years later, even as Democrats hoped Ohio might remain competitive at the statewide level.
- 2018: Mike DeWine defeated Democrat Richard Cordray by about 3.7 points
- 2022: DeWine defeated Democrat Nan Whaley by roughly 25 points
The 2022 result was especially striking. DeWine won nearly two-thirds of the vote and carried all but a handful of counties, reinforcing how far Ohio had moved toward Republicans compared with its old swing-state reputation.
That does not mean every Republican nominee should automatically win the governor race. Candidate quality, the national environment and the specifics of the campaign still matter. But it does make Ramaswamy’s current position unusual: he is trailing in most late polling in a state where the last Republican governor just won reelection by a landslide.
Then Came the Amy Acton Ad
Ramaswamy’s problems became much more public after his campaign aired an attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother accusing her daughter of lying about her childhood. The spot triggered criticism from Democrats and several Republicans, including Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, who called it deeply troubling and urged Ramaswamy to stop running it.
Trump and Vice President JD Vance defended Ramaswamy, and his campaign initially doubled down, saying the message had tested well with persuadable voters. But a Republican internal poll obtained by Axios showed Acton’s lead expanding from two points before the ad to eight points after it began airing, with Ramaswamy slipping from 45% to 42%.
That poll alone cannot prove the ad caused the movement, especially because other surveys show a smaller Acton advantage. Still, it added to Republican concerns about a race that had already been trending away from Ramaswamy before the controversy erupted.
And Now the Ad Is Gone
Ramaswamy’s campaign says the ad simply completed its planned run, but it is no longer airing after becoming one of the biggest controversies of the Ohio campaign. The Washington Post reports that the campaign spent roughly $1 million airing two versions of the spot before replacing them with other advertisements.
Trump campaigned with Ramaswamy and Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Chillicothe on Wednesday, giving both candidates a high-profile turnout event during the closing days. Trump also publicly defended Ramaswamy over the Acton ad during the Ohio stop.
Polls Can Be Wrong but the Direction Is Hard to Miss
There is still an important caveat. Polls are snapshots rather than votes, Ohio remains a Republican-leaning state at the presidential level, and polling errors of several points are hardly unusual in statewide elections. Ramaswamy could also benefit from Republican voters who are unhappy with him personally but ultimately vote for the GOP ticket.
What is harder to dismiss is the consistency of the recent movement. Ramaswamy went from leading some early surveys to trailing across most of the major late polling, while Acton has reached or approached 50% in several of them.
That is a very different race from the one Republicans were looking at months ago. Whatever ultimately happens on Election Day, Ramaswamy enters the final weekend clearly trailing in the public polling after once appearing to have the advantage.
Follow the latest state races in our 2026 governor elections guide.