Election Day is almost here (Tuesday, November 4), and three major contests on the East Coast are shaping the national political narrative. New York City’s mayoral race has tightened in the final stretch, despite polls showing a clear leader. Across the river, New Jersey’s governor’s race has become a true toss-up with both parties seeing a path to victory. In Virginia, the governor’s contest leans Democratic, but the attorney general race may stay red, setting up the possibility of a split government. Each race offers its own storyline, and all three could deliver surprises tonight.
New York City Mayor: A Lead on Paper, Uncertainty in Reality
The New York City mayoral race is the most unpredictable contest of the night. Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic state assemblyman known for his sharply leftist platform and support for policies such as city-run socialist grocery stores and major wealth redistributive programs, enters Election Day with a messy polling lead. His campaign has energized the lunatic left, but many voters and political observers view him as far left of the city’s historical governing mainstream, making his support difficult to measure through traditional polling.
Former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, remains one of the most polarizing figures in New York politics. Cuomo has high name recognition but also high negatives, and his campaign has become a landing spot for an unusual mix of voters: Democrats uneasy with Mamdani’s ideology, independents who prefer a familiar political figure, and even some Republicans who see Cuomo as the only viable way to stop Mamdani. That cross-current of motivations is nearly impossible for pollsters to model.
Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa maintains a dependable base, but polling shows he has virtually no path to victory in a heavily Democratic city. His presence in the race adds one more layer of complexity, increasing the uncertainty around where disaffected or protest-minded voters ultimately land.
The combination of an ideological frontrunner, a polarizing former governor, and a Republican who cannot win but can siphon votes makes the final outcome especially unpredictable. There is no clear precedent, and even seasoned analysts are preparing for election night surprises.
New Jersey Governor: A Toss-Up With a Slight Democratic Edge
In New Jersey, what was expected to be a comfortable Democratic hold has instead turned into one of the closest governor races in the country. Democrat Mikie Sherrill still enters Election Day with a slight advantage, but every meaningful indicator shows that Republicans are performing better here than they did in 2021. Jack Ciattarelli, who nearly pulled off an upset four years ago, has rebuilt a coalition of suburban moderates and anti-establishment voters who are frustrated with taxes, inflation, and the cost of living.
Sherrill retains the structural advantage. New Jersey is a blue state on paper, and Democrats still dominate voter registration. But the tightening polls, growing Republican turnout enthusiasm, and strong early vote shifts suggest this race is far more competitive than anyone expected. Ciattarelli has closed the gap by hammering affordability and positioning himself as the candidate for voters who feel economically squeezed.
The result is a true toss-up. Democrats have the edge, but only barely, and Republicans are outperforming their 2021 pace in counties that matter. Both campaigns know it could come down to late counting in a handful of suburban precincts. By Tuesday night, this race could be separated by tenths of a point, not whole numbers.
Prepare for a photo finish in the Garden State.
Virginia: Governor Leans Democratic, Attorney General Wide Open
Virginia may end Election Day with a split result. Despite weeks of turbulence surrounding Democratic Attorney General nominee Jay Jones, including the leaked text messages in which he made an angry remark about “putting a bullet” in the head of Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert, Democrats remain on track to hold the state’s top two offices. The controversy has damaged Jones, but it has not fundamentally shifted the broader statewide environment.
Abigail Spanberger continues to lead the governor’s race over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, with Democrats also favored to retain the lieutenant governor’s office. Spanberger’s image as a pretend moderate and refusal to engage with reporters appear to be insulating the party from the fallout surrounding the attorney general race. Her coalition of suburban voters, independents, and Democrats gives her a clear path to victory as long as turnout holds.
The attorney general contest, however, is a different story. That race has tightened into a genuine toss-up, and whether incumbent Republican Jason Miyares holds the office may depend on how well Spanberger performs at the top of the ticket. If she wins decisively, by over 6 points or more, Democratic candidates down the ballot are more likely to benefit. But if the margin tightens or if a significant number of voters split their ticket, Jones could easily lose even if Democrats win the governorship.
In short: the top two statewide races lean Democratic. The attorney general race is on a knife’s edge, and the outcome will likely come down to turnout, persuasion in the final days, and how many Virginians decide to vote for Spanberger but abandon the Democratic ticket further down the ballot.
Final Look
- New York City: Mamdani leads, but turnout and shifting coalitions keep the outcome uncertain
- New Jersey: Slight Democratic lean, but Ciattarelli has a credible path if independents swing his way
- Virginia: Democrats favored for governor, Republicans could retain Attorney General
Election night may deliver surprises. Turnout and late movement from undecided voters will decide which race becomes the shocker.