Nikki Haley may not receive the most hospitable welcome when she comes home to South Carolina for the GOP primary next week.
At the moment, her track downward looks to be a loss far worse than that of New Hampshire, a state where she wasn’t even the former governor. Week after week, as new polls come out, the race is looking more grim and more of an embarrassment for a candidate putting all her eggs in the Palmetto State basket. Here’s a sampling from around the polling world over the past few days.
According to new numbers from Winthrop University, Trump’s maintaining a 36-point lead over Haley:
? 2024 South Carolina GOP Primary
• Trump — 65% (+36)
• Haley — 29%Winthrop U. | 749 LV (±3.6%) | 2/2-10https://t.co/IbMorS7N66 pic.twitter.com/ul6pN8rzJZ
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 14, 2024
A day before that, a poll from Florida Atlantic University found the race even more in Trump’s favor giving him a 45-point lead:
? 2024 South Carolina GOP Primary
• Donald Trump — 67% (+45)
• Nikki Haley — 22%• @FAUpolling | @MainStResearch
• February 1-8 | 379 Likely voters https://t.co/BMA4yqU3AB pic.twitter.com/Ac1RCcpO2e— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 13, 2024
CBS News found a slightly closer result but with Trump still maintaining at least 35-points ahead:
? 2024 South Carolina GOP Primary
• Donald Trump — 65% (+35)
• Nikki Haley — 30%CBS News | 1,004 LV | 2/5-10 | ±4.4%https://t.co/Bntig2cPi3 pic.twitter.com/eFE2fXCZKL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 12, 2024
The low-end result for Trump could be a 25-35 point victory over Haley if she can win some crossover votes and make the South Carolina primary resemble the results in New Hampshire.
On the other hand, the likely result is Trump pulling out a victory of at least 40 points given that South Carolina more closely resembles Iowa.
As New York Magazine writes, the fairy tale that Haley’s home state would buoy her to victory has disappeared:
If evidence from the polls means anything, Haley is much more likely to break down than to break through in the Palmetto State. Nine days before the primary with early voting already underway, Haley is trailing Trump by 33 points (he’s at 64 percent, she’s at 31 percent) in the RealClearPolitics polling averages for South Carolina. There is no discernible trend in her favor. And as likely voter polls replace registered voter polls, the fantasy that there is a big pool of independent and Democratic voters ready to invade the open GOP primary and save Haley’s bacon is being exploded.
Haley knows it’s over but she will extend the 15 minutes as long as she can. She’s on a kamikaze mission to damage Trump as we chronicled previously.
Her attacks have grown sharper and will continue to seem more desperate as it’s apparent an embarrassing loss is on the near horizon. Rather than jump ship quickly, as Ron DeSantis did, Haley has less to lose and will still end up running again in 2028 regardless of how many MAGA faithful she annoys in the process.
Haley’s comet will crash in South Carolina, and the upcoming March calendar looks like an even worse bloodbath.
