The moment we’ve been waiting for with bated breath. Will he or won’t he?
As the former Republican governor of the deep blue state of Maryland, Larry Hogan was uniquely positioned to bridge the partisan divide as a presidential contender, or so he frequently told us. One of the ways Hogan built this bridge was by… acting and governing a lot like a Democrat.
For months, there has been rampant speculation that Hogan was considering a presidential run to challenge former President Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination.
Over the weekend, Hogan appeared on Face the Nation to let everyone know the Hogan train was staying parked in the station:
BREAKING: Former Gov. Larry Hogan announces he will not run in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. pic.twitter.com/tzS7z0uElJ
— Mikenzie Frost (@MikenzieFrost) March 5, 2023
Perhaps the best response to Hogan’s announcement came from Trump’s former White House spokesman, Sean Spicer:
Former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan announced he will not run for President in 2024 sending the other campaigns scambling to pick up his supporter
— Sean Spicer (@seanspicer) March 5, 2023
The idea that Hogan was holding some large constituency group within the Republican Party is rather laughable.
Sure, there is a segment of the GOP in general that may be ready to move past Donald Trump, but that doesn’t mean they’re ready to embrace Larry Hogan. If they wanted a squishier, opportunistic, and perhaps more bland GOP flavor that can rub elbows with the establishment but talk a good grassroots game, they’ve already got Nikki Haley.
The truth for Hogan is that he would’ve gotten creamed in the primary by just about everyone. In that regard, he came to the wise conclusion that jumping into a Trump-DeSantis battle was not a smart move. There’s a sense that Hogan seems done with running for office although that might come again some years down the road.
After he passed on a Maryland Senate run last year, a race which he likely would’ve won, it seemed clear his sights were set on the White House. Instead, he’s forming a political action committee to prop up Trump’s most formidable primary competitor, whoever that ends up being.
If we check the polling data, Hogan’s currently clocking a solid 0.8% on average over the last 60 days. If anyone believed Trump was truly threatened by someone in the one-percenter club, they’re kidding themselves. Hogan’s brand of moderate Republicanism is simply not where the party has been for many years.
In the interview above, Hogan sounds like he’s willing to sacrifice his really good chance at winning the presidency to help defeat Donald Trump. The reality of the situation is that Hogan never had a chance at winning anything outside of Maryland, a state that suited him well as a moderate. In the GOP primary, however, when conservative credentials matter and records are laid bare for voters to examine, Hogan’s got a lot of weak spots.
We’re nearing the point of decision time for all these potential candidates to start making up their minds. Hogan was one of the first to decline the opportunity, but he won’t be the last.
