Well, it’s not that “sudden” since many Democrats have been saying it for months.
Some, in fact, have staked their belief that not only should Biden not run in 2024 but that they already believe he’s ruled it out. On the other hand, reports keep popping up of the President planning a 2024 election kickoff sometime after the midterms. That could be a smokescreen to keep voters focused on the issues at hand, of course, but it could also be true.
Poking a little deeper into the latest poll numbers from the Washington Post/ABC News poll released over the weekend finds another gem concerning Biden’s approval rating and future within the Democratic Party. He’s still sitting at 39% approval, by the way.
Republicans, by at least a slim majority, seem content if Donald Trump runs again in 2024. Democrats, on the other hand, would like to change deck hands before their Titanic hits the iceberg, per ABC News:
Looking two years off, just 35% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents favor Biden for the 2024 nomination; 56% want the party to pick someone else.
Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, for their part, split 47%-46% on whether Donald Trump should be their 2024 nominee — a 20-point drop for Trump compared with his 2020 nomination.
The unpopularity of both figures may encourage third-party hopefuls, though they rarely do well.
The previous sentence is cute. If there was a time for third-party hopefuls to mount a serious campaign it would’ve been 2016 or even 2020. The problem is that they can never seem to get their crap together and put forth a respectable, independent-minded option. It’s always retreads of former Republicans running as Libertarians or widely unknown names like Evan McMuffin trying to run as an unaffiliated independent.
The numbers above would change if Biden does actually announce a 2024 run. Democrats would coalesce, circle the wagons, and instantly begin extolling the magical virtues of the first four years of the Biden recession–excuse me–presidency.
In a head-to-head, the potential Biden-Trump rematch is basically a toss-up dependent on voter models:
In a head-to-head rematch, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds a 48%-46% Biden-Trump contest, essentially tied. Among registered voters, the numbers reverse to 46%-48%. That’s even while 52% of Americans say Trump should be charged with a crime in any of the matters in which he’s under federal investigation, similar to views after the storming of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.
Given Biden’s poor economic performance, there’s undoubtedly a small sliver of people in those numbers above among the 52% who say Trump should be charged with a crime that would still prefer his economic policies boosting their 401k plans. Sure, charge him with a crime, but then let him run the country again. That’s how bad Biden’s policies have been for the nation’s bottom line.
Here’s that point illustrated in chart form:
To get 74% of people to agree on anything is a miracle. Perhaps this is the unity Biden has been longing for, nearly three-quarters of the country agrees that the economy is a dumpster fire under Biden’s watch.
For this reason, and a dozen others, Democrats know Biden would be a weak choice in 2024. Selling a Biden vote as another vote to kill your retirement plan and drive up your grocery bill is a tough sell.
