Control of the United States Senate will end up a much closer margin than some polls or analysts are predicting. Among the ten most competitive races in the country, there are probably just five where Senate control hangs in the balance.

Here’s a rundown of the 10 states to watch this November. The Senate is currently split 50/50 between Republicans and Democrats. A pickup for Republicans would put them in charge while a pickup for Democrats would further cement their Senate control. Cook ratings come from the Cook Political Report Senate Rating page.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 8.

1. Pennsylvania

Current Control: Republican (Sen. Pat Toomey is not seeking re-election)

Democratic Candidate: John Fetterman

Republican Candidate: Dr. Mehmet Oz

Analysis: Pennsylvania has been in the safe territory for Democrats in recent months. Dr. Oz has made several missteps and has had a difficult time connecting with voters. Meanwhile, concerns about Fetterman’s ongoing health battles and the potential that he’s not revealing the full story to voters has also been a persistent thread. Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Dr. Oz in this race and campaigned with him on multiple occasions. The race may end up closer than polls predict but Fetterman currently has the advantage in this typically-blue state.

Current Rating: Lean Democrat (Cook Political Report)

2. Colorado

Current Control: Democrat

Democratic Candidate: Sen. Michael Bennet (Incumbent)

Republican Candidate: Joe O’Dea

Analysis: Bennet, the two-term incumbent is working to hold his seat and prevent a Republican takeover. Taking a fairly moderate road on many issues has allowed Bennet to shake off most of O’Dea’s attacks. While O’Dea himself is considered a moderate Republican, he hasn’t been able to offer much contrast or give voters a reason to kick out the incumbent. This seat will probably stay safely in the Democratic column with an uneventful election night result.

Current Rating: Lean Democrat (Cook Political Report)

3. New Hampshire

Current Control: Democrat

Democratic Candidate: Sen. Maggie Hassan (Incumbent)

Republican Candidate: Don Bolduc

Analysis: The New Hampshire race will pit a Trump-endorsed challenger in Bolduc against a fairly progressive incumbent Senator. The test will be how well Bolduc can push Hassan out of her comfort zone in defending Biden’s failed policies and capture some of the independent spirit of the Granite State. As a sitting incumbent, Hassan has a natural advantage and this seat is likely to stay in Democratic hands.

Current Rating: Lean Democrat (Cook Political Report)

4. Arizona

Current Control: Democrat

Democratic Candidate: Sen. Mark Kelly (Incumbent)

Republican Candidate: Blake Masters

Analysis: The Arizona race presents a visible opportunity for a Republican pickup. While Kelly is generally not considered a progressive fighter of the Senate, he has still had a difficult time connecting with voters and getting to that crucial 50% mark as an incumbent. The race is closer than some of the other “Lean Democrat” seats with some polls finding only a two-point margin to Kelly’s advantage. Watch Arizona for a potential upset in November, especially if Republican Kari Like wins the Governor’s race.

Current Rating: Lean Democrat (Cook Political Report)

5. Georgia

Current Control: Democrat

Democratic Candidate: Sen. Raphael Warnock (Incumbent)

Republican Candidate: Herschel Walker

Analysis: For a while, Walker was looking like he wouldn’t be able to close the deal with a  typically red Georgia electorate. However, as the summer months waned, Warnock appeared more progressive and out of step with what voters in Georgia are looking for. With Biden unpopular nationally and Walker running with Donald Trump’s endorsement, polling has now shown a lead change with Warnock playing catch-up. This seat may be one of the toughest holds for Democrats in November, especially if it keeps trending in Walker’s direction.

Current Rating: Toss Up (Cook Political Report)

6. Nevada

Current Control: Democrat

Democratic Candidate: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (Incumbent)

Republican Candidate: Adam Laxalt

Analysis: Nevada has been a tricky state for both parties in recent cycles. Democrats typically do well there but so do Republicans. While polling over the summer showed some good numbers for the incumbent, Laxalt has run a well-disciplined campaign focusing on the economy and national fears over inflation. The message has been connecting with a state that relies on tourism and disposable income despite a heavy union presence pushing for Cortez Masto. Polling now shows Laxalt with a slight lead and a real potential for a pickup in November.

Current Rating: Toss Up (Cook Political Report)

7. Wisconsin

Current Control: Republican

Democratic Candidate: Mandela Barnes

Republican Candidate: Sen. Ron Johnson (Incumbent)

Analysis: Democrats have been politically gunning for Johnson for multiple election cycles. In recent months it looked like this was going to be a barn-burner with Barnes making serious inroads. As of late, Johnson seems to have recaptured a lead as more voters start paying attention to their civic duty. Once again, the national headwinds of Biden’s unpopularity coupled with a state that swung far enough to vote for Donald Trump in 2016 should keep Johnson safe in November. The race is considered a “toss up” due to the tight poll numbers but Johnson probably has a safer edge than it would seem.

Current Rating: Toss Up (Cook Political Report)

8. Florida

Current Control: Republican

Democratic Candidate: Val Demmings

Republican Candidate: Sen. Marco Rubio (Incumbent)

Analysis: This race is tighter than it seems like it should be. Florida is trending further red by the cycle and Gov. Ron DeSantis is looking at a potentially easy win for re-election. For Rubio, however, polling has been a little tighter. Republicans are still the easy favorite to hold this seat, it would be surprising to see DeSantis win re-election but Rubio somehow loses. They’re tied to each other. While Demmings has run a strong campaign, Rubio isn’t so unpopular as an incumbent that he’s in danger of losing in red-leaning Florida.

Current Rating: Lean Republican (Cook Political Report)

9. North Carolina

Current Control: Republican (Sen. Richard Burr is not seeking re-election)

Democratic Candidate: Cheri Beasley

Republican Candidate: Ted Budd

Analysis: The North Carolina Senate race is another must-win for Republicans alongside Florida in terms of having any chance to flip the upper chamber. Budd, a Trump-endorsed candidate, hasn’t held a double-digit lead but polls have shown him comfortably ahead by a few points. Beasley has attempted to run a more moderate campaign to try and peel away soft Republican support in this reddish state. While the state leans in favor of Budd, it could be one of the closer seats to watch on the list of “lean Republican” races.

Current Rating: Lean Republican (Cook Political Report)

10. Ohio

Current Control: Republican (Sen. Rob Portman is not seeking re-election)

Democratic Candidate: Tim Ryan

Republican Candidate: J.D. Vance

Analysis: What started as a struggle for Vance has turned into a real chance of holding this Ohio seat for Republicans. While several summer polls gave Ryan the appearance of a real chance to flip this seat from red to blue, most of the recent polling puts Vance in a position to win in November. Another Trump-endorsed candidate, Vance has struggled as a political novice to run an effective ground game but given the political makeup of Ohio, a state which voted twice for Donald Trump, Vance should win in the end.

Current Rating: Lean Republican (Cook Political Report)