Is the red wave growing or turning into a red ripple? The bedwetting continues.
This has historically been the time of year when the down-and-out party starts getting hopeful and the riding-high party starts fearing the worst. The truth will land somewhere in between but the fundamentals of the economy and the political landscape haven’t changed.
President Biden’s inflationary policies are making the economy worse and many household items still remain ridiculously high compared to even one year ago.
Nonetheless, the expectations for the GOP to pick up a record number of House seats have subsided but that doesn’t mean they still aren’t expected to do very, very well in November.
There are some glimmers of hope, however, for Democrats if you examine the data.
Enthusiasm over voting for pro-abortion candidates has helped balance the enthusiasm among Republicans to vote against Biden’s policies as the Cook Political Reports notes by looking at recent primary results:
That sound you hear is the crash of expectations of big GOP gains in the House this fall. Democrats notched a huge victory in New York’s 19th CD last night as Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro 51% to 49% in a Hudson Valley special election both parties had invested in. That’s roughly the same margin President Biden had carried the seat by in 2020. The result shouldn’t be shocking, considering Democrats had outperformed in other recent specials in NE-01 and MN-01. But Molinaro, regarded as a pragmatic executive of blue-leaning Dutchess County, had led in multiple polls throughout the race. Ryan, the younger Ulster County executive and decorated Army veteran, prevailed after a late push to make abortion rights the centerpiece of the campaign.
In Florida, former Governor and current Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist easily won his primary and will face GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis this fall. The fact that this low-key primary attracted as many votes (1.5 million) as the more high-profile Democratic gubernatorial and Senate contests of 2018, suggests that Democratic enthusiasm has been elevated.
Has the “wave” really turned into a “ripple”?
Maybe in some districts where Democrats have the numbers to win if they show up with even marginal enthusiasm.
There are still countless other areas where Republicans have also notched big victories such as the TX-34 special election where Mayra Flores won a seat held by Democrats for literally the past 100+ years.
The enthusiasm train is going in both directions right now with Democrats starting to wake up thanks in part due to the Dobbs ruling back in June.
Biden’s approval rating has ticked up a few points since bottoming out in July and early August, another data point giving his party some reason to keep hope alive. However, moving from approval in the high thirties to the low forties only means Biden finally found his floor.
Biden’s now at the same level of approval that President Obama was when Republicans won a massive 63 seats back in 2010 according to the Gallup data:
Biden will land somewhere between losing 20 and 50 seats most likely. The end result will depend on what happens over the next two and a half months before Election Day on November 8.
