For a moment it looked like President Biden might — might — have hit the bottom of his poll numbers, at least in the Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll. The previous iteration saw Biden’s number tick up slightly back to 38%, but things have turned sour again.
Biden’s now trending back in his normal direction of losing the confidence of the American people as he rides the down escalator of public opinion:
U.S. President Joe Biden’s public approval rating held at the lowest level of his presidency, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll completed on Wednesday.
Thirty-six percent of Americans approved of Biden’s handling of his job, according to the two-day public opinion poll. That’s down slightly from 38% a week earlier and matched the record low first hit in late May.
The president’s approval rating has stayed below 50% since August, a warning sign that his Democratic Party could lose control of at least one chamber of the U.S. Congress in the Nov. 8 midterm elections.
Biden’s biggest problem is not with the country as a whole, but with voters inside his own party. Democrats continue watching while crisis after crisis besets the White House with no positive outcome.
The real crisis of confidence is coming from Biden’s own party as Democrat disapproval ticks up to 30%:
Support from Democrats has dropped significantly over the past 12 months:
Amid these troubles, Biden’s support within his own Democratic Party has declined somewhat. This week, 69% of Democrats polled approved of his performance, compared to about 85% in August 2021..
Losing 16 points from Democrats is nothing to sneeze at for the Biden administration. The net result at the ballot box in November could create a scenario of depressed turnout leaving vulnerable Dems in swing states left out to dry, and tighter races more likely to lean Republican.
As Henry Olson writes in the Washington Post, Democrats shouldn’t get too excited with minimal poll bumps given the overwhelming sour feelings toward Biden’s presidency:
The case for Democratic optimism goes something like this: Yes, President Biden is deeply unpopular — more unpopular at this point in his presidency than any other president since Harry S. Truman, according to FiveThirtyEight. Despite that, the Democratic Party’s numbers in the generic congressional ballot, which asks respondents which party’s candidates they would back if the election were held today, are higher than Biden’s approval rating. Plus, many voters who are unhappy with Biden are also uncommitted in congressional races. That gives Democrats the chance, according to this view, to convince these voters that Democrats deserve another chance to govern despite their record over the past two years.
The problem, says Olson, is the sheer number of undecided independent voters who haven’t yet made up their minds about the midterms:
History shows that these voters tend to break sharply against the president’s party by Election Day. The exit polls from the last four midterm elections all show that independents voted against the president’s party by between 12 and 19 points. In each case, the president had a net negative job rating on Election Day. Is there any reason, given the sharply negative views people hold toward Biden and about the state of affairs in the United States today, to think this time will be different?
Even if Democrat support starts to drift back toward Biden nearer to Election Day, perhaps based on reactions to abortion trigger laws or party loyalty in general, it’s the independent voters that might push Republicans over the top.
A few more ticks downward and Biden could drop lower by the end of the summer or even into the fall when more voters start paying attention.
