The recent Supreme Court abortion ruling looks as if it might reset the midterm election and perhaps help Democrats dig out from their basement poll numbers just in the knick of time.
On the other hand, however, analysis from Politico indicates that the under-30 crowd, a demographic that largely supported Democrats in 2020, is getting a bit burnt out from inaction on the part of the Biden administration on issue after issue, including abortion.
In that sense, if abortion remains in stasis with states deciding their own abortion laws and Democrats in Congress can’t do much about it, the result might actually suppress votes in November for… Democratic candidates:
A debate is raging inside the Democratic Party about whether it’s giving its base — especially those under 30, the generation that most strongly supports abortion rights — enough motivation to keep voting for the party, as federal Democrats struggle to meaningfully push back against the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
The fear is that an already deflated Democratic base won’t show up in November, particularly the youngest voters, who smashed participation records in the last two elections and backed President Joe Biden by a 25-point margin in 2020. Some Democrats stress that the Biden administration and Congress need to do more to show their rage — and willingness to take significant action — to mirror the passion seen among young people, three-quarters of whom support abortion being generally legal.
Democrats have had opportunities over the decades to codify Roe v. Wade abortion rights protection into federal law. Time and time again, they’ve deferred because it’s not clear they could even muster support within their own ranks to get it passed.
As a result, the current environment, in which the Biden administration and friends seem to once again be caught flat-footed, serves as another example of inaction.
It’s not as if Democrats had no warning, especially once the leaked draft opinion indicated Roe v. Wade was toast back in May. Even before that, though, during oral arguments of the Dobbs case in the fall of last year, many observers remarked that it looked like the court was leaning to strike down Roe.
How would Democrats and the Biden administration be caught so off guard? Well, that has been their standard operating procedure for everything since day one of Biden’s presidency.
Biden, sensing the frustration and likely being cajoled by advisors, set out to support nuking the filibuster with a special carve-out for passing abortion rights on a simple majority vote.
Good luck with that, as Politico notes:
To be clear, the chances of a filibuster exception actually coming to pass are slim. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) both indicated they don’t plan on backing such a carveout.
Expect the arm-waving to get more ridiculous as the weeks drag on. Some have suggested creating mobile abortion clinics to operate around the country, funded by taxpayers, of course, to make sure women in every state have abortion access somehow. This plan is asinine and unworkable but might find its way to the surface if Democrats get desperate.
It’s called abortion theater, and Democrats think young voters want to see more of it:
Even so, Democrats said this kind of “political theater” is what voters, especially Gen Z, need to see to “value signal” that they’re “willing to fight for them,” said Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic pollster. He cited Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s effort to bus migrants from the Texas border to Washington, D.C., in the absence of federal action on immigration, calling it an example of a vivid action that effectively riles up the Republican base. Democrats, Woodbury continued, could be considering their own version of such attention-grabbing actions now.
“Can you imagine seeing hundreds of mobile clinics deployed from Washington to [the] states?” Woodbury added.
The sword cuts both ways, of course. Just as abortion supporters are motivated to vote, so are pro-life voters as well. Letting this victory for life, the biggest in a generation, slip away at the ballot box in November seems like a motivating factor enough for any voter who even tepidly considers themselves pro-life.
If Democrats were counting on the Roe reversal to hand them victory in November, it doesn’t seem to be playing out that way. Without some serious theater and foot-stomping from Biden on down, many younger and more progressive voters will decide that voting in November is a lost cause and just sit this one out. After all, Biden seems unable to actually do any of the things he suggests or rally support in Congress.
Unless Democrats take a super majority in the Senate, an outcome that looks unlikely even in the best scenarios, without nuking the filibuster there will be no national abortion rights law.
If that’s the playing field, plenty of young liberals will stay on the sideline.
