Former President Donald Trump would handily beat President Joe Biden or Senator Bernie Sanders if the 2024 presidential election were held today. The findings from Emerson College cast doubt on any meaningful impact made by the January 6 committee hearings as to whether Trump has become unelectable if he launches another presidential run.
While Trump hasn’t announced any 2024 intentions yet, his hints and teases seem to be getting more frequent and perhaps more pointed that his next run is a matter of when rather than if.
As the economy continues to batter Biden’s approval rating, dampening his party’s efforts in the midterms, voters were pretty clear when asked about a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup, according to Emerson:
It’s interesting that Emerson chose to test against Bernie Sanders as a second option rather than someone like, say, Kamala Harris, for example, the next person “in line” for the Democratic nomination by all accounts. How would Trump fare against Harris or even Pete Buttigieg? Emerson didn’t ask.
The bright spot for Democrats, if there’s one to be found, is an uptick in enthusiasm among party faithful driven partially by the abortion ruling back in June:
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Those who say abortion is the top issue facing the nation are more motivated to vote this November than any other issue group. Among the nearly 1 in 10 voters for whom abortion is the top issue, 89% are very motivated to vote this November; comparatively, 76% of voters who say the economy is the top issue are very motivated to vote. Voters who say abortion is the most important issue break for the Democratic congressional candidate over Republicans 80% to 8%.”
The key stat here is that 1 in 10 voters are highly motivated by abortion and among those voters, almost 90% are very motivated to vote. That’s a high enthusiasm impact but it’s a low number. Furthermore, not all of those voters are voting Democrat, some are motivated in the opposite direction to defend the right to life. Republicans shouldn’t discount a backlash in some instances, but it doesn’t appear to be the overriding issue above the faltering economy.
Biden’s approval rating, according to Emerson, is also sagging at the bottom. Biden’s approval in this survey matched the previous month at 40%, a fairly generous number since many other pollsters have him squarely in the thirties.
While there may be stronger general election candidates on the GOP bench, Trump remains in the mix as a potential 2024 contender and is clearly in the running among Republican primary voters.
