As CNN describes Newsom’s Florida TV ad, the California governor just “jump-started the 2024 campaign” with his shot across the bow to Gov. Ron DeSantis, the potential heir to the Trump MAGA brand in national politics.
What does Newsom have to gain by running an ad in Florida? After all, President Biden continues to signal that he intends to run for re-election, and if he doesn’t, won’t Vice President Kamala Harris be the next in line?
By some accounts, Biden is already too weak to run and Harris is already too dirtied from the bad Biden brand that her 2024 career is over before it begins.
In that scenario, Democrats could become embroiled in a presidential primary and Newsom wants to start positioning himself as the progressive fighter:
Newsom knows that DeSantis is the hottest thing in national Republican circles these days. From fundraising to polling in early states, it’s clear that if DeSantis ran for president in 2024, he would actually have a chance to topple Donald Trump in a GOP primary.
So, what better way to make yourself known nationally – and with a reputation as a fighter – than to take a (symbolic) swing at the big Republican on the block?
“He’s running for president,” Newsom told CNN of DeSantis last week. “I care about people. I don’t like people being treated as less of them. I don’t like people being told they’re not worthy. I don’t like people being used as political pawns. This is not just about him, but he is the poster child of it.”
Whatever you think of it, the strategy worked. The Newsom ad has been viewed 3.3 million times on his Twitter feed and drove tons of media coverage over the holiday weekend.
Here’s the ad courtesy of YouTube:
DeSantis didn’t take the swipes laying down and responded by noting that California is facing an exodus of residents due to the high tax and high crime problems created by Newsom:
In other words, auditions for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination are now open and Newsom wants to be first in line. He has the star power as a governor of a large state, but he was almost recalled just some months back. How did he go from a near-recall to a national progressive fighter in a matter of months? It helps that despite earlier warnings, Newsom overwhelmingly defeated the recall effort by mounting a strong campaign of his own.
Beyond that, there is a vacuum in Democratic Party politics right now. Biden at the helm is a joke, even among his own party.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump has a large following while a dozen other contenders, led by DeSantis, are waiting in the wings to break through.
For Democrats, though, the bench is fairly weak and/or uninspiring. Newsom is trying to become the DeSantis of the Democratic Party. Someone willing to take on any battle, cultural or otherwise, and not back down from the fight.
What this also says is that those close to the Biden administration, like Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg, will have a tough time relying on their position alone as a reason why Democrats should support either of them in 2024.
As the CNN analysis closes, the ad is no accident, and Newsom clearly thinks there’s a plausible scenario where Democrats have an open primary in 2024 and Republicans nominate Ron DeSantis as the GOP standard-bearer:
While Biden insists he is running again (and gets annoyed when people question it), there are still questions lingering in Democratic circles about whether he will really do it.
Newsom’s ad – and the resulting publicity – speak to those doubts, and will fuel them. There is just no way that Newsom goes after DeSantis – even with a small TV ad buy – unless he thinks there is a possibility that he might be facing the Florida governor come November 2024 (or at least wants Democratic activists and donors to be considering that possibility). Which would mean no Biden in the race.
In a few short months, we may know the answers to some of these questions and whether Newsom’s gamble pays off.
