There hasn’t been a lot of polling among early 2024 primary states for understandable reasons, it’s still very early, but there was a seismic poll drop today from the University of New Hampshire that’s sure to frame the GOP primary in a new light.
Up until now, Donald Trump has led just about every Republican primary poll in New Hampshire and elsewhere. His lead has been anywhere from 25 to 32 points in July and October of last year among Granite State voters.
However, that all changed. The latest numbers from the UNH poll of New Hampshire Republican primary voters may be early, but they’re sure to be highly discussed among DeSantis and Trump loyalists:
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is now statistically tied with Former President Donald Trump in the New Hampshire Republican Primary. Support for DeSantis has more than doubled since October. DeSantis runs better against Biden than does Trump, a further sign of Trump’s weakening support among NH Republicans.
Biden and Trump are increasingly unpopular in New Hampshire and only about half of members of each of their own parties want them to run for President in 2024. Other potential 2024 presidential candidates such as Vice President Kamala Harris, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are also broadly unpopular in the state.
Here’s the chart breakdown with a historical change since last year when Trump was running away with it:
So, what does this mean for Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump in 2024? Perhaps the battle itself has already begun in earnest and some larger factions of the GOP are ready to find a Trump alternative with all the fight but fewer mean tweets or something.
None of the candidates mentioned have announced any intention to run but DeSantis has given signals all along the way. Trump himself also keeps hinting and reports indicate that he’s ready to join the field and announce a 2024 practically any day now.
Polls like this will only fan the flames of urgency if Trump sees DeSantis making serious inroads into the MAGA base in early primary states especially.
The other side of the coin, aside from who voters would choose in a primary, is who voters like as a leader. DeSantis tops that list as well:
Trump is higher than everyone else but doesn’t break past the 50% mark like DeSantis easily does.
Clearly, the cultural battles that the Florida governor has engaged in over the course of the past two years have paid off in terms of credibility and the reputation as a fighter for populist conservative ideals.
One more little nugget, from the same poll, DeSantis leads among talk radio listeners and Fox News viewers, an electoral slice that basically makes up the core of the Republican base.
As it stands today, DeSantis is increasingly likely to be the one sitting atop a 2024 Republican field when the games begin next year, especially if numbers like this are replicated in other states like Iowa or South Carolina.
