Since the merits of Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health were argued before the Supreme Court last week, Democrats have been both fearing and welcoming the potential that the justices may, as a result of this case, overturn Roe v Wade. They’re fearing it because Democrats generally oppose any restrictions on abortion and generally want unfettered access to abortion up to just before birth or even after birth, in some instances. Democrats also welcome the reversal as a potential means to ignite their voting base for the 2022 midterms and perhaps a state-by-state fight over abortion laws.
In short, Democrats see the Dobbs case as the potentially motivating factor for their base considering they currently lack a motivating factor in the White House:
Far more voters say they want the Supreme Court to leave Roe v. Wade in place than not, but the issue isn’t a key motivator heading into the midterm elections, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.
Yet 42 percent of respondents to the poll said they would vote for a candidate who doesn’t align with their views on abortion, compared to 32 percent who said that the candidate’s stance will determine their vote. Another 26 percent were unsure or had no opinion on the matter.
That hardly sounds like abortion would be the firestarter Democrats think it would be. The motivation and momentum seem to be on the pro-life side ever since the recent Supreme Court nominations of former President Trump have potentially tipped the scales. If pro-lifers sense that a Supreme Court decision affirming a right to life could be in jeopardy by a Congress bent in codifying the tenants of Roe into law, the pendulum could easily swing against Democrats just as it could in their favor.
Perhaps the other interesting–but not unsurprising–finding in the Morning Consult poll over Dobbs is how many voters simply admit they haven’t even heard of the case and don’t know much about it:
The poll of 2,000 registered voters found that many are uninformed or misinformed about the arguments the Supreme Court heard last week on Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban — the case the court is using to revisit and potentially overturn the protections for the procedure enshrined by Roe v. Wade since 1973.
The poll found 44 percent of those surveyed said they had heard “not much” or “nothing at all” about the case, while nearly two-thirds either said they didn’t know how likely the court was to overturn Roe or said the court isn’t likely to overturn the precedent.
When cases are being argued, most people aren’t paying attention until the actual ruling is announced, which will come in the Spring, at the end of the current term. This time, however, in the Dobbs case, the oral arguments were live-streamed, in audio-only form, which gave a window into the proceedings. As a political nerd, it was informative and thrilling to listen in and hear both sides of the legal argument.
For the average person who would’ve tuned out by the second mention of stare decisis, the real story on abortion won’t come until next year when the decision is handed down and CNN anchors are breathlessly fuming over the potential that Roe v Wade gets dumped.
At that time, Democrats will revive their shelved thoughts on court-packing as a means to overrule the current conservative-leaning court and create a permanent 15-seat bench filled with liberal activists posing as judges.
Out of the 52% of abortion supporters, it would be interesting to see a breakdown of their residency by state:
A total of 52 percent of respondents said abortion should remain legal in most or all cases, compared to 36 percent who said it should be banned in most or all cases. And 45 percent said Roe should not be overturned, compared to 24 percent who said it should be.
Abortion will become a national topic with regional implications if Roe is overturned. Many people probably aren’t even aware that overturning Roe by itself would do nothing to ban abortion at the state level. Prior to the ruling, the country existed in a patchwork of laws with most states banning the practice and others allowing it in certain circumstances.
That would become the reality once again, with 21 states set to automatically ban the procedure if Roe is overturned. New York, California, and a bunch of others will always stand on the side of ending unborn life, so there’s no true threat of a national ban for the time being. That fact alone will mitigate some of the blowback which could exist among a portion of voters.
But, that time is not here yet. For the moment, Democrats will have to contend with Biden’s bad economy and an electorate that isn’t all too concerned about abortion rights as a front-burner issue.
