On Wednesday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the case of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, a case that focused on the constitutionality of a Mississippi law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. An audio feed of the proceedings was streamed live giving the public a new view into where the justices may be leaning on the issue based on what kinds of questions they asked and how they interacted with and sometimes argued with attorneys on both sides.
Based on what transpired, many analysts seem to think that at least 5 of the courts’ 6 conservative-leaning justices seems ready to toss out the previous Roe precedent and uphold the Mississippi law:
The Supreme Court appeared prepared Wednesday to uphold a Mississippi law that would ban almost all abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, which would be a dramatic break from 50 years of rulings.
The justices heard 90 minutes of oral arguments in the most direct challenge to Roe v. Wade in nearly three decades.
A majority of the court’s conservative justices suggested they were prepared to discard the court’s previous standard that prevented states from banning abortion before a fetus becomes viable, which is generally considered to be at about 24 weeks into a pregnancy.
It was unclear after Wednesday’s argument whether the court would take the additional step of explicitly overturning its abortion precedents, including Roe v. Wade.
It’s worth noting that upholding the Mississippi 15-week law would not invalidate Roe v Wade unless the court went so far as to explicitly overwrite the precedent by giving states vast leeway to regulate or outlaw abortion as they see fit.
It’s also safe to say that if Roe v Wade was to be argued today, the standards and base of medical technology would be different because science is able to keep unborn babies alive much longer outside the womb than was the case back in 1973. As a result, it becomes harder and harder to continually put arbitrary dates on when an unborn baby becomes a viable life, afforded rights and protections like any other citizen under the constitution.
As noted, the Mississippi law could stand without entirely dismantling Roe, but it appears that at least 4 justices would be ready to make that move as well:
At least four of the court’s conservatives, Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, suggested they were prepared to overturn Roe on the grounds that it was wrongly decided, despite the public’s decades of reliance on it.
“Can’t a decision be overruled because it was wrong when it was decided?” Alito asked.
Kavanaugh listed several past decisions, on segregation and gay marriage, that resulted from the court overruling long-standing precedents.
One pro-life outlet, LifeNews, went so far as to predict Roe v Wade will be entirely overturned in a 5-4 decision based on what they observed today during oral arguments:
Our prediction: The Supreme Court will vote 5-4 to overturn Roe.
Justice Barrett will author the decision with Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh concurring. Roberts will vote to uphold the MS law but not concur with overturning Roe, and Breyer Kagan and Sotomayor dissent.
— LifeNews.com (@LifeNewsHQ) December 1, 2021
Chief Justice John Roberts made a very pointed observation that among developed nations, the United States stands side-by-side with countries like China and North Korea in allowing elective abortion after 20 weeks:
Chief Justice Roberts compared our abortion viability standard to those in the People's Republic of China and North Korea.
FACT: The United States is one of 7 countries that allows elective abortion after 20 weeks.
— Kayleigh McEnany (@kayleighmcenany) December 1, 2021
To be standing firm with authoritarian regimes who themselves show no regard for human life at any level is an embarrassment on the world stage. Shameful, by any measure. It’s beyond time that Roe v Wade is at least narrowed in scope to allow states an ability to restrict abortion down to a very narrow set of circumstances. Not all states will agree, which is why they can make their own laws, as was the case before Roe.
It remains to be seen how this case will turn out, though analysts on both sides seem to agree that the pro-life position, among a 6-3 conservative-leaning court, has the best shot in decades to move the pendulum toward growing respect for unborn life.
