For Democrats that keep wishing on a star, hoping that the American people will wake up tomorrow and suddenly appreciate President Biden’s brilliance, here’s some bad news to tamp down the enthusiasm. In all the years that CNBC and NBC have performed surveys on the congressional generic ballot, such as which party do voters support in the midterms, Republicans have never led by a double-digit margin before. Ever. That’s how badly Democrats are positioned less than a year from Election Day in 2022 when Americans will decide which party controls the House and Senate.
The story from CNBC’s poll is focused on Biden’s trashy numbers, which keep getting worse, but now he’s dragging down Congress with him and Democrats don’t even know where to start digging:
As bad as Biden’s number may be, the polling data for Democrats in Congress is far worse.
Republicans now sport a historic 10-point advantage when Americans are asked which party they prefer to control Congress, holding a 44%-34% margin over Democrats. That’s up from a 2-point Republican advantage in the October survey.
In the past 20 years, CNBC and NBC surveys have never registered a double-digit Republican advantage on congressional preference, with the largest lead ever being 4 pints for the GOP.
This polling, coupled with news out today about inflation hitting a 39-year high, might somehow make these numbers even worse for Democrats in the near term. Imaging the same poll next month and Republicans hit +11 or +12 on the generic ballot? At some point, there is a ceiling, but just when I think we’ve hit it, here we are again with a new record-breaking margin.
As on analyst put it, this would be an unmitigated disaster for Democrats if the election was held tomorrow:
“If the election were tomorrow, it would be an absolute unmitigated disaster for the Democrats,? said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research Associates and the Democratic pollster for the survey.
American’s views on the state of the economy look to have helped drag down both Biden’s and the Democrats’ numbers.
Some 41% of the public believe the economy will get worse in the next year, a modest improvement from last quarter but still a largely pessimistic number by the survey’s standards and up from a year ago.
At some point, the mercy rule must come into play, shouldn’t it? Democrats are doing so badly right now with voters that it seems like practically anything should turn it around. The problem lies with Biden at the top, a feckless leader unable to convince voters even within his own party that he has control of the issues, foreign or domestic.
Biden’s 2020 coalition is crumbling, and that trend doesn’t show any sign of letting up:
The data show the president has lost ground among key support groups that propelled him to victory in November.
The approval rating among those who voted for him has dropped from 80% to 69% in the April survey. There have been notable declines among Americans 18-34 and suburban residents, both of whom, in dramatic swings, now register net negative views on the president.
Well, there’s always 2024 or 2026, I suppose. For the moment, Democrats are staring at significant losses, even if they cut this lead in half, the House is likely gone, and the Senate would likely follow.
If something doesn’t drastically change between now and next November, Democrats will be looking at a total wipeout and the abrupt end of accomplishing any of Biden’s domestic legislative agenda.
