It seems like Russia never fully stopped invading Ukraine as the countries have been at odds for decades. New revelations this week, however, indicate fear on the part of U.S. intelligence officials that Russia is amassing troops at the Ukrainian border and appears to be on the precipice of a ground invasion. Part of this would make logical sense as new presidents often face critical foreign policy challenges in their first year in office, especially when they’re already dealing with thorny domestic issues at home. At the moment, the Biden administration is working on about a dozen different expanding crises from inflation to Covid, and everything in between.
It’s unclear whether the U.S. warning from intel officials is meant as a signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he’s being watched closely by western nations, or if there is genuine concern that military action could commence in Ukraine any day now:
The U.S. is raising the alarm with European Union allies that Russia may be weighing a potential invasion of Ukraine as tensions flare between Moscow and the bloc over migrants and energy supplies.
With Washington closely monitoring a buildup of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border, U.S. officials have briefed EU counterparts on their concerns over a possible military operation, according to multiple people familiar with the matter.
The assessments are believed to be based on information the U.S. hasn’t yet shared with European governments, which would have to happen before any decision is made on a collective response, the people said. They’re backed up by publicly-available evidence, according to officials familiar with the administration’s thinking.
Russia, of course, denies any wrongdoing and says the troop movements are simply part of their own internal exercises and nothing out of the ordinary:
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov Friday dismissed the report as “empty and unfounded efforts to exacerbate tensions.”
Despite denials, U.S. intelligence and European allies seem convinced Russia isn’t being honest about its actions. Back in 2014, Russia began a similar troop build-up that eventually resulted in a small-scale Ukraine invasion led under false pretenses. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said western intelligence agencies are keenly aware of Russia’s patterns:
In a warning to Russia, Blinken said Biden administration officials “know it’s playbook,” pointing to Ukraine’s escalation in 2014 under the Obama administration.
“Our concern is that Russia may make a serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014, when it amassed forces along the border, crossed into sovereign Ukrainian territory and did so claiming falsely that it was provoked,” Blinken said.
Perhaps also alarming, in this case, is the ineptitude the Biden administration has demonstrated when it comes to dealing with critical foreign policy matters. The withdrawal from Aghanistan left 13 dead soldiers and thousands of still-stranded U.S. residents in the country trying to leave. Secretary of State Blinken has still never fully answered why there are still 14,000 stranded U.S. legal residents trapped in Afghanistan.
Videos like this are beginning to surface from journalists in the region monitoring the situation:
Woah. Video of #Russia-n tanks transported to #Ukraine border in city of Voronezh on Thursday.
US warned EU that Putin may be planning an invasion of Ukraine (Bloomberg); head of CIA was just in Moscow: pic.twitter.com/r9Lhf6fngv
— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) November 12, 2021
There is clearly action happening on the ground, but it’s unclear what Putin hopes to accomplish.
Not everyone is thrilled with the prospect of new U.S. involvement in foreign matters that don’t directly relate to our own national security. In a tense exchange between Rep. Mike Turner, a Republican Congressman from Ohio, and Fox News host Tucker Carlson, the two argued over whether it was in the best interest of the American people to pick sides in this ongoing conflict:
After stating that “we already have troops in Ukraine,” Turner claimed he was merely trying to “raise the importance so that people understand” that the Biden administration could be overseeing another “debacle” on par with the withdrawal from Afghanistan if action’s not taken.
“So the lesson of 20 years in Afghanistan and the tragic and cowardly and counterproductive exit from Afghanistan is that we need more troops in Ukraine?” Carlson shot back. “So why should the average American care about the territorial integrity of Ukraine, sincerely?”
The hawkish congressman responded that it’s of “strategic importance” for both the United States and its NATO allies to offer military intelligence and lethal weapons to Ukraine due to its location along the Black Sea.
Being only months removed from a serious foreign policy debacle in Afghanistan, many Americans are wary of more foreign entanglements. With Democrats in Congress spending trillions of dollars domestically, it seems impossible to imagine ramped-up military spending should things escalate between Russia and Ukraine with the U.S. and NATO involved in the periphery.
It’s an ongoing situation that could boil over at any time.
