It seems awfully early to start drawing matchups in 2024, especially matchups which assume former President Donald Trump decides to pass on another presidential run. However, with that said, it’s easy to see some dotted lines when looking at a 2024 field that has yet to be formally and officially outlined. On the Republican side, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis seems to be an early favorite, a point we touched on when discussing his status in relation to the CPAC conference a couple of weeks back. There are other names, of course, but with Florida being a large and crucial swing state, DeSantis is uniquely positioned to launch a presidential bid for 2024 and immediately start with a base of support in a state that might end up deciding the election.
On the Democratic side, it seems highly unlikely, though not impossible, that President Biden will be running again in 2024. The early days of his 2020 candidacy hinted at notions that he would serve as a one-term president, perhaps a bridge to a more progressive candidate running in 2024. At the moment, that candidate, with the second-highest office in the land, is Vice President Kamala Harris. That’s not to say there won’t be a 2024 Democratic primary, as Harris is not assured the nomination even if her boss endorses her and steps aside.
What would it look like in the event that a Harris-DeSantis battle unfolds in 2024? Here’s a preview from Douglas MacKinnon writing for The Hill:
With Trump hopefully out of the running in 2024, DeSantis appeared to be the clear favorite at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) with 43 percent of the straw vote. His next closest competitor was South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem with 11 percent. Donald Trump Jr. garnered 8 percent, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas each got 7 percent.
Harris will be a formidable candidate when she does run. But to defeat a rising DeSantis, she will need to not only defend any failed Biden-Harris policies, but also convincingly articulate her own vision to move the nation forward. That’s something she was unable to do successfully during the 2020 Democratic primary season. With the power and prestige of the White House behind her, that dynamic will change.
When the race is on, it will be Harris v. DeSantis. You can bet on it.
A wise man once said “politics is all about timing,” a statement that has been proved out time and time again. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie passed on running in 2012, in favor of running in 2016. By that time, his star had faded. The same can be said for former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, another rising star in the GOP who couldn’t catch his moment.
On the Democratic side, Beto O’Rourke, having recently lost his Senate race to Ted Cruz, picked up a presidential race in 2016 instead but failed to catch momentum. The timing seemed right, but having just lost a statewide race in Texas, who was to believe O’Rourke could perform any better running on the presidential line?
Vice President Harris will be less worried about timing but more worried about outside challengers. If Biden does step aside after one term, Harris will be working hard to placate potential challengers with promises of positions in a future Harris administration, or other such tools that politicians use to clear the field.
For Gov. DeSantis, the timing is much more critical. A candidate who is hot this month can literally disappear a month later as the news cycle and the electorate moves on. Republicans seem pleased with DeSantis, for the moment, and like his style and his affinity for President Trump.
It’s likely that candidates looking toward a 2024 run will begin to announce their candidacies in early 2023, leaving us a two-year window between now and then for candidates to build a foundation and consolidate support.
The wild card for Republicans is, of course, Donald Trump.
Will he endorse in a primary?
Will he sit aside and lob bombs at the crop of anti-Trump Republicans that pop up to run in 2024?
Will pro-Trump candidates like DeSantis be hamstrung by their connection with the former president, forced to address, defend, or explain everything he says between now and Election Day 2024?
DeSantis versus Harris is not a crazy prediction, it seems like a reasonable prospect sitting in early 2021. Only time will tell.
