The latest national poll numbers from Economist/YouGov show an even tie between former vice president Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren among Democratic primary voters. The news comes as somewhat of a shock on the eve of the third Democratic debate which takes place on Thursday of this week.
Here’s the breakdown of the numbers which demonstrate just how volatile the race has become with Warren seeming to consolidate her support at the expense of Sen. Bernie Sanders and perhaps is even eating into support from Biden:
2020 National Democratic Primary:
Source: The Economist/YouGov surveyed 1,500 American adults from Sept. 8–10, who were selected via an opt-in Internet panel. The margin of error for registered voters was three percent.
Warren’s Upward Trajectory
Warren has continued to observe polls showing her performing well, even outdoing Biden in some respects, but the results have still been somewhat inconsistent. Earlier this week we reported on a CBS News/YouGov battleground poll of early primary and caucus states which gave Warren some good news in Iowa and Nevada, where she’s putting up a serious fight, and great news in New Hampshire, where she leads handily at the moment.
Also, if it’s truly the case that Bernie is sitting 10 points behind Warren and Biden, that could be the start of a bad trend for him despite several pockets of optimism around the country. This is just one poll out of dozens, of course, but it’s one of the first to show a serious erosion for Sanders.
Warren has now passed Bernie in the RealClearPolitics average of polls by less than one percent, but it’s the trajectory of her campaign that matters right now.
Biden’s steady support rolls on as he sits around 30% on average, which means this number at 26% is not far outside his typical sampling. Over the past three weeks, Biden has ranged from a low of 26% to a high of 33%, hitting just about every number in that range between six different national Democratic primary polls.
Warren, on the other hand, in the same group of polls, has ranged from 13% to 26%, a vastly larger range which shows that not every pollster is in agreeance on where the race truly sits.
Bernie has had a range of support from 12% up to 24% during the same time period.
Biden is the most consistent, and the second-place spot shows the most upheaval right now which may indicate that there are a lot of voters who are completely unsettled on a candidate at this phase of the race, which is expected. Thursday’s debate may have some impact on their preference especially since all the major candidates will share the stage at the same time.
We will have complete coverage of the ABC News Democratic Debate on Thursday, Sept. 12, with live stream links and everything else you need to know for viewing.